This graph shows Samuel L. Jackson’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
IF made its theatrical debut last weekend and took in a respectable $33.72 million in its opening attempt, making it the top movie at the domestic box office. The John Krasinski-directed film was relegated to second place as the widest release, but will itself play spoiler to another newcomer as it becomes the widest-playing film in the land this week. Another trio of new films make their appearance this week, including another animated feature in the way of everyone’s favorite comic book cat, as The Garfield Movie makes its arrival into North American cinemas.
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After a lackluster few weeks, this weekend sees three new films open wide, along with an even wider expansion for Dumb Money. While none of this week’s new arrivals will likely make a monumental splash, they should nevertheless deliver a fun and competitive weekend at the domestic box office, while providing movie aficionados with a wider range of genres to choose from.
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After having only one new wide release debut last week, this week will see three arrive in theaters. The largest of the three is 20th Century Studios’ oft-delayed action comedy, Free Guy, starring Ryan Reynolds and Jodie Comer. The film about a bank teller who discovers he is actually a background player in an open-world video game, opens in 4,165 theaters. The count is enough to topple Jungle Cruise from its two week reign as widest release, as the latter drops to 3,900 theaters this week. Next up is the biographical drama Respect, from United Artists Releasing and starring Jennifer Hudson as the late “Queen of Soul”, Aretha Franklin. The film opens in 3,207 locations. Lastly, is Sony Pictures, Don’t Breathe 2, the follow up to Don’t Breathe, which earned a worldwide total of $170 million nearly five years ago. The horror film, which returns Stephen Lang as “The Blind Man” releases in 3,005 theaters…
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Two wide releases arrive in theaters this weekend to challenge the horror films that have dominated the box office charts the past two weeks. After stellar openings for A Quiet Place: Part II two weeks ago, and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It last week, the films opening wide this week couldn't be more of a contrast. The long awaited Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway makes its entrance after a series of release date changes. The sequel from Sony Pictures will open in 3,346 theaters. The original Peter Rabbit earned just north of $347 million worldwide back in 2018. Getting a jump on the weekend is Warner Bros’, In The Heights as it opens today, Thursday. The musical, directed by John M. Chu and produced by Lin-Manuel Miranda, will open in an estimated 3,400 theaters while also being available to stream on HBO Max. Early reports have the film tracking around $20 million in its opening weekend.
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The world’s most lethal odd couple—bodyguard Michael Bryce and hitman Darius Kincaid—are back on another life-threatening mission. Still unlicensed and under scrutiny, Bryce is forced into action by Darius’s even more volatile wife, the infamous international con artist Sonia Kincaid. As Bryce is driven over the edge by his two most dangerous protectees, the trio get in over their heads in a global plot and soon find that they are all that stand between Europe and a vengeful and powerful madman. Joining in the fun and deadly mayhem is Morgan Freeman as… well, you’ll have to see.
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Wrath of Man entered last week’s chart as one of only two new wide releases. The other, Here Today, was never going to challenge for widest release, or at the box office. This week was more of an unknown as we see the debut of Lionsgate's Spiral. The latest film from the Saw franchise, starring Chris Rock, Max Minghella and Samuel L. Jackson, is opening in 2,811 locations. Also new this week is Profile, the thriller from Focus Features, which debuts in 2,033 theaters. Rounding out the new wide releases is Those Who Wish Me Dead and Finding You, with the latter playing in 1,312 locations. While we don’t have a reported number for Those Who Wish Me Dead yet, estimates have the film opening in around 2,900 locations...
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As the movie industry tries to adapt to the the COVID-19 outbreak, we at The Numbers are adapting with them, although it might take another week or so to get our new columns and schedule set, so bear with us in the meantime. Or bare with us, the choice is yours. Starting today, we will have a new weekly column looking at the films and TV shows hitting popular streaming services like Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime. Of the titles on this week’s list. It is The Banker that has my attention the most.
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Spider-Man: Far From Home was the first installment in the M.C.U. to come out after Endgame. It not only needs to tell a story by itself, it has the unenviable goal of setting up the post-Infinity Stones era of the M.C.U. Is it able to accomplish both of these tasks?
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Captain Marvel started with two strikes against it, because it’s an origin story and a prequel. There have been so many origin stories for super heroes released over the past decade plus that audiences have grown tired of them. Furthermore, prequels are difficult to do right, because it’s much harder to surprise audiences. Can this film overcome these obstacles? Or should fans of the M.C.U. just wait till the sequel comes out when this character can really shine?
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He may be a cyber security expert with a degree from MIT, but to uncover the truth behind his best friend’s untimely death, JJ—aka John Shaft Jr.—will need an education only his dad can provide. Absent throughout JJ’s youth, the legendary locked-and-loaded John Shaft agrees to help his progeny navigate Harlem’s heroin-infested underbelly. And while JJ’s own FBI analyst’s badge may clash with his dad’s trademark leather coat, there’s no denying family. Besides, Shaft’s got an agenda of his own, and a score to settle that’s professional and personal.
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If I were to use just one phrase to describe this week’s list, it would be “Good, but not great.” More than half of the films on this week’s list have reviews that are exactly that, merely good, but not good enough for limited release. Of the exceptions, Amazing Grace is the one I want to see the most.
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December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases.
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Incredibles 2 was one of three absolute monster hits Disney released this year, all of them super hero movies. It is the delayed sequel to The Incredibles, which came out in 2004. Fourteen years is a long time for a sequel. Was it worth the wait? Or is Pixar running out of ideas?
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This May was an odd month, as Avengers: Infinity War opened on the last weekend of April, rather than the first weekend of May. This meant May started out slowly, but Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story did well enough to give 2018 a healthy lead over 2017. Looking forward, there are two potential monster hits this month, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and another $100 million hit, Ocean’s 8. Last June, there were four $100 million hits, led by Wonder Woman, which pulled in over $400 million. I think 2018 and 2017 will be an even match at the top, so 2018 will have to rely on depth to improve upon its lead over 2017.
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In our continued quest to provide the most in-depth analysis of the movie industry, we’re pleased to announce some updates to our people pages today. We have new analysis of career histories, breakdowns for acting and technical credits, and summaries of the acting or technical records people can lay claim to. Let’s look at these new features one at a time, using the cast and crew of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle as example.
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The Hitman’s Bodyguard held onto first place for three weeks in a row, and earned just over $75 million domestically on a $30 million budget. Granted, it opened in the middle of the worst box office slump we’ve seen in years, so there was no competition to deal with. Is that the only reason the film did well at the box office? Or is it worth checking out?
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The Numbers celebrates is 20th anniversary this week and as we previously stated, the site has grown a lot over those 20 years. How big has it grown? Let’s look at some of the stats.
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We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them.
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July is over and we should all be happy about that. Granted, there were some positive results we can talk about. Spider-Man: Homecoming is a huge hit and Despicable Me 3 will pull in a sizable profit before it reaches the home market. There were also a couple of other $100 million hits and a midlevel hit or two; however, overall, 2017 wasn’t able to compete with 2016 and the box office finally lost its lead over last year. 2017 started the summer about $200 million ahead of 2016, but will finish July about $100 million behind last year’s pace. August doesn’t look any better. There are a couple of films that have a reasonable shot at $100 million, The Dark Tower and Annabelle: Creation, as well as a few that should be solid midlevel hits. However, last year we had Sausage Party and Don’t Breathe, both of which nearly hit $100 million, then we had midlevel hits like Pete’s Dragon, Kubo and the Two Strings, and War Dogs. I don’t know if 2017 will be able to compete with that. ... Now some of you are thinking I forgot about Suicide Squad. Trust me, I will never forget that movie. I ignored it to make a point. Even without Suicide Squad, I don’t think 2017 will make up the deficit it has with 2016. With Suicide Squad, it is going to be a disaster. I want to be optimistic, but there’s no evidence to suggest I should be.
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We are officially in the worst time of year on the home market. The last of the major Awards Season players have already come out, but it is still too early for the Spring hits to be released. The competition from May Sweeps and the start of the Summer Blockbuster Season means there’s not a lot here that’s going to do well in DVD / Blu-ray sales. Ironically, the lack of a major release means there are a lot of smaller releases that are competing for Pick of the Week, many of which would be lost in the crowd during a busier time of year. This includes I Am Not Your Negro, The Salesman, Real Genius, and Seven Days in May. In the end, I went with The Red Turtle on DVD or Blu-ray as the Pick of the Week. In the meanwhile, Spacehunter: Adventures in the Forbidden Zone on Blu-ray gets the Puck of the Week honor, as the “best” Canadian release of the week. I just wish it were coming out in 3D.
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February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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Captain Fantastic is the only film on this week’s list that I think will do well in theaters. There are some films that are earning better reviews, like Our Little Sister, but no film on this week’s list has the same buzz as this film does.
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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The third installment of the Holiday Gift Guide focuses on smaller releases, movies that opened in limited release, foreign films, classics getting new releases, and a few Canadian films. This year the list looks different to the previous guides for a simple reason. While there were only eight releases on the TV on DVD installment of the holiday gift guide, the first pass had more than 30 films on this list. I tried trimming the list, but that resulted in me remembering more films I wanted to add to it. Even after getting rid of the ones that won't be released until after Christmas, like Bone Tomahawk, there are still way too many releases to deal with. So let's not delay anymore and get to the list, starting with the biggest release...
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TV on DVD releases dominate the home market this week even more than they did last week, including five of the six best-selling new releases on Amazon.com. Despite this, none of them are contenders for Pick of the Week, at least not in my opinion. The two best are Two Days, One Night and CitizenFour. I really should select one of those for Pick of the Week... but I'm going with Big Game on Blu-ray, because I'm a big goofball.
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A24 has only been around for little more than two years, but in that time, I've reviewed more than a dozen of their releases. I haven't enjoyed all of them, but their hit to miss ratio has been better than most. Likewise, their hit to miss ratio at the box office has been better than most. If this keeps up, they might start releasing wide releases in a few years. However, while their track record is amazing compared to most limited releases, Barely Lethal is not a success story. It earned terrible reviews and missed the Mendoza Line during its opening weekend, earning less than $2,000 per theater. Granted it was also a VOD premiere, so that's a mitigating circumstance, it was one of the weakest box office performers for A24. Was this result fair? Or did it deserve better?
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The vast majority of the films on this week's list are either debuting on Video on Demand simultaneously with their theatrical release, or have been playing on VOD for a while. There are a few exceptions, but none of them look like they will become box office hits. The film I'm most interested in seeing is Big Game. It might not be the typical limited release and its reviews are not award-worthy, but it certainly looks entertaining. At the very least, it is worth a rental on Video on Demand.
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Kingsman: The Secret Service is based on a comic book co-created by Mark Millar, who previously created the Kick-Ass comic book series. (On a side note, apparently there is a Hit Girl prequel comic book in the works and if that does well, there might be a Kick-Ass 3 movie that focuses more on Hit Girl. She was definitely the best part of the second movie.) It was a February release, so expectations were good, but not great. However, the film managed more than $125 million domestically and $400 million worldwide. That's fantastic. Is it as good as its box office numbers? Or did it thrive thanks to terrible competition?
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It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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Captain America: The Winter Soldier was the latest in an unending string of hits for Marvel Studios. It was for quite a while the biggest hit of the year, but was recently overtaken by Guardians of the Galaxy. Is this film worth checking out for those who have enjoyed the previous Avengers films? And if you've never seen any of the previous Avengers films, is this a good place to start?
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When the RoboCop remake was announced, a lot of people thought it would be a disaster. The original RoboCop is widely considered a classic that not only offers a lot of action, but is also a smart satire. Some where expecting the film to be a complete train wreck. That wasn't the case, at least not with critics. Granted, 49% positive isn't a good score, but it is better than expected. Will I like it more than I thought I would? Or will I recommend skipping this movie and sticking with the original?
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In the March update to our Bankability Index, our list of industry influencers increases to 14 people and we examine the top actors and actresses in dramatic roles in movies.
This month's new entry is Morgan Freeman, who got a very handy boost from his voice role in The LEGO Movie, and was also helped by some work we did on our archive of credits. That combination takes him to 14th on the Worldwide Chart, up 3 places from February.
All this activity has kept us pretty busy, but it's our new Bankability feature that really kept us burning the midnight oil this month: The Bankability Index Casting and Hiring Guides...
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March was stronger than expected when compared to 2013 with four films earning $100 million or more, led by Divergent. (Not all of them have gotten there yet, but they are certain to reach that milestone before they are done their box office runs.) It wasn't a blow-out victory, on the other hand, as a few weekends the ticket sales were lower in 2014 than they were during the same weekend in 2013. April looks really strong with Captain America: The Winter Soldier leading the way. This film should top $200 million over the weekend, while it isn't the only film that should crack the century mark, as Rio 2 is also on track for $100 million. This is great news, as no film last April reached $100 million. Granted, 42 came close and Oblivion wasn't far behind, but The Winter Soldier should earn more than those two films earned combined giving 2014 a comfortable lead over 2013 over the full month.
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After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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Top-grossing actors and actresses in leading roles
Over the past two or so years, we've been working on one of the biggest projects we've ever undertaken: building out our database of acting and technical credits to include complete information on every acting role and significant technical credit for movies for which we have box office information. While work on this vast task continues (and will, of course, continue as long as films are being made), we have enough coverage of the industry now to start doing some serious analysis. Over the next month or two, I'll be looking at some of the things we've found and we'll be rolling out new features at The Numbers that take advantage of the dataset. This week, I'll look into how we are categorizing acting roles, and discuss the first charts in our new People Records section.
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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All Acting Credits
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