This graph shows Adam Sandler’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s another terrible week on the home market. There are a couple of Oscar-bait releases to talk about, but neither are Pick of the Week contenders, at least in my opinion. There are no movies that are anything more than midlevel hits. The best new release of the week, at least in my opinion, is Love, Chunibyo & Other Delusions: Ultimate Collector’s Edition Blu-ray.
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Is Uncut Gems busted Oscar-bait? It seems strange to describe an Adam Sandler movie as Oscar-bait, but the film was released by A24 and given their track record in the few short years they’ve been around, it is not unfair to say it was made to win Oscars. That didn’t happen. On the other hand, it did just get to $50 million before the weekend, which is amazing for a limited release. Is the film as good as its box office numbers? Did it deserve to find more success during Awards Season?
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We are getting really close to the cut-off for Oscar qualifying, which means there are a number of films hoping to win Oscars that are coming out in the next few weeks. This also means if a film isn’t gunning for Oscars, like Bombshell or Uncut Gems, it will likely fall between the cracks. That said, this is where the VOD market can come to the rescue for films like After Class, Code 8, or Colewell.
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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Hotel Transylvania came out a few years ago. It cost $85 million to make, which is a lot of money by nearly every definition, but relatively cheap for a digitally animated film. The reviews were mixed, but it was a big financial hit. It came as no surprise that there was a sequel. Hotel Transylvania 2 did better than its predecessor in nearly every way, but it is still a second-tier digitally animated film. For a second-tier film like this to succeed, all it needs to do is entertain the kids while not making the parents want to flee the room right away. That's not a particularly high bar to set. Does this film manage to get above that bar?
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Hotel Transylvania 2 is off to an impressive start this weekend with a new record weekend for September, according to Sony’s estimate released on Sunday. The animated comedy is expected to earn $47.5 million, beating the record held by the first film in the franchise, which debuted with $42.5 million this time in 2012. It’s also on the high end of expectations, which had it coming in the high 30s or low 40s. It’s a welcome turnaround for Adam Sandler, after a string of flops, but even more so for Sony Pictures, which has had a dismal year so far, with no film earning more than Pixels $76.7 million before now.
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As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place for the third weekend in a row with $46.1 million in 63 markets over the weekend for totals of $235.3 million internationally and $373.6 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in France where it easily earned first place with $7.96 million on 719 screens. It also earned first place with $2.99 million on 947 screens in Brazil. The film isn't quite done its international run. It opens in Italy this weekend and China next month. It should have no trouble getting to $300 million internationally and could get all the way to $500 million worldwide. China could be a huge market for the movie.
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Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays.
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Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation shouldn't have any trouble earning first place over the weekend. In fact, it should make more than the rest of the top five combined. On the downside, its real competition isn't the other films in theaters, but Guardians of the Galaxy, which set the August weekend box office record when it opened this weekend last year. Rogue Nation could have a record-opening for the franchise and still not come close to Guardians of the Galaxy. The only other new wide release of the week is Vacation, which started on Wednesday. Its reviews are terrible and its box office chances are not much better. Since nothing will top Guardians of the Galaxy's record-breaking opening, it seems 2015 will end the month on a losing note. Hopefully this is just a momentary hiccup and not an omen for how the rest of the summer will go.
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Ant-Man unexpectedly repeated on top of the weekend box office, as Pixels failed to meet expectations by a sizable margin. In fact, only Southpaw beat expectations. The overall box office sunk as a result, down 22% from last weekend to $151 million. Worse still, this was 2.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Fortunately, 2015 has won a lot more weeks than it has lost and has built up an impressive 8.2% lead over 2014 at $6.45 billion to $5.96 billion. It isn't impossible for 2015 to lose a lead that large, but I'm cautiously optimistic that it can see this lead grow through to the end of the year.
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Three new wide releases and three returning movies that are still pulling in good crowds will produce a box office chart with no knock-out winner this weekend. That’s in large part thanks to a disappointing debut from Pixels. The Adam Sandler/Kevin James-comedy/adventure-Ghostbusters/wannabe will earn about $24 million this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday estimate. That puts it in danger of not even earning back its marketing budget domestically, let alone starting to recover the $88 million production budget. It also means that Ant-Man will top the charts for a second weekend.
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Pixels leads a group of three wide releases looking to battle for limited box office dollars. It appears to be on track for first place, but with not as much as I anticipated at the beginning of the month. This is partially explained by its reviews which are lower than the 30% to 40% positive range I was anticipating. Paper Towns is earning much better reviews, but still barely above the overall positive level. Finally there's Southpaw, which is earning mixed reviews and its buzz is weak, so it will likely be outside the top five over the weekend. Both Ant-Man and Minions should continue to perform well, with the former having a shot at first place, if Pixels flops. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that did quite well, Lucy and Hercules. I don't think any of the new releases this week will come close to earning the same as Lucy did, but I think the depth is better this year, so 2015 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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It is a typical summer week on the home market with little to no prime releases. The biggest release of the week is Still Alice, which earned $18 million in theaters. That's not bad for a limited release. It is better than some of the wide releases that came out earlier this year. Fortunately, the Blu-ray is also the best new release of the week and it is the Pick of the Week. In fact, it isn't even close as there are no other contenders for that title.
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We have a mixed bag of limited releases this weekend. There are some good films, like It Follows, which has good reviews, but is the wrong genre for a limited release. However, there are a couple of limited releases could find an audience, like The Wrecking Crew and Seymour: An Introduction, but neither is expected to expand wide enough to find much mainstream success.
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X-Men: Days of Future Past easily won the weekend race at the box office earning more than $100 million over the four-day weekend. That's great news and it helped the overall box office grow by 5% to $187 million over the three-day weekend from last week. That's the good news. The bad news the other new release, Blended, bombed and the three-day weekend was down 27% from the same weekend last year. In fact, this year's four-day weekend total of $231 million was 9% lower than last year's three-day total and 26% lower than the four-day weekend from last year. That's a devastating collapse. The only saving grace is last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend, so a sharp drop-off isn't that unexpected. So far, 2014 has pulled in $3.95 billion, which is 4% more than 2013's running tally of $3.80 billion.
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Another weekend, another $90 million opener. This time, there’s an asterisk at least, because X-Men: Days of Future Past will “open” with $110 million, thanks to the four day Memorial Day long weekend, giving Fox an arguable claim to the biggest weekend of the year, and the first $100 million debut. The reality, however, is that it will line up in fourth place when comparing 3-day weekends, with Captain America still out in front, thanks to its $95 million opening back in April. May has seen the three other $90 million-plus weekends, with Godzilla second ($93 million) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 third ($91.6 million).
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It is Memorial Day long weekend and the box office is looking strong. X-Men: Days of Future Past should dominate the box office chart and there are some who think it will have the best opening of the year so far. Blended is playing the role of counter-programing this week and should do well in that role opening in third place. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five will be filled with Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, all of which should still pull in $10 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were six films that earned more than $10 million over the four-day weekend, led by Fast and Furious 6, which earned a four-day opening of $117.04 million There are some who think X-Men: Days of Future Past will top that figure. I really hope so. However, even if it does, last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend and I don't think 2014 will match it.
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It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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It's a big week with several first run releases, some big TV on DVD, releases, and more to deal with. The only one that truly rises to the level of Pick of the Week is Mad Men: Season Six, but the screener arrived late and I hate awarding Pick of the Week to a title when that happens. The only other release I really want to see is White House Down, but that's more guilty pleasure than Pick of the Week. I guess it goes to Mad Men: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray.
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The Wolverine did not live up to expectations, but it still dominated the weekend box office chart, earning more than double the second place film, The Conjuring. Overall, the box office fell nearly 12% when compared to last weekend hitting $172 million. This is still 28% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a great result. In total, 2013 has pulled in $6.40 billion, which is just under $20 million or 0.3% below last year's pace. This is fantastic; however, had The Wolverine performed as well as some were expecting, 2013 would have pulled into the lead over the weekend.
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There were two strong new releases this week, but Despicable Me 2 remained on top, even though it fell a little faster than expected. Grown Ups 2 was further evidence that bad reviews actually help Adam Sandler movies. Finally, Pacific Rim struggled, at least compared to its massive production budget. Overall, the total box office was $194 million, which is 15% lower than last weekend. However, last weekend was a holiday weekend, so this is a good hold. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 17% higher, which is a great result. Year-to-date, 2013 is still behind 2012, but by less than 1% at $5.81 billion to $5.86 billion. Unfortunately, next weekend 2013 will have to go against The Dark Knight Rises, so 2013 will likely lose a lot of ground.
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There are two wide releases coming out this week, Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim, and depending on who you talk to, either one has shot at first place. However, most agree that Despicable Me 2 will repeat as the box office champ. There is a chance all three films could top $40 million at the box office, which would be great news in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, Ice Age: Continental Drift opened with $46.63 million. That's a fine start, but I think Despicable Me 2 will top that during its sophomore stint and give 2013 a clear victory over 2012.
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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There are quite a few films that opened wide in theaters on this week's list, but most of them bombed at the box office. Hotel Transylvania is the only exception, but while it is a good kids movie, it isn't Pick of the Week material. The best release of the week, in my opinion, is Seven Psychopaths on either DVD or Blu-ray.
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It's a mixed week on the home market. Granted, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted is coming out, which made more than $200 million domestically and should sell quite well on the home market. On the other hand, the second biggest first run release is That's My Boy, which failed to make an impact at the box office. There is also a flood of weaker releases, secondary Blu-ray releases, and Christmas releases, much of which I would consider filler. The signal to noise ratio is a little off. As for the best releases of the week, there are some great TV on DVD releases like Mad Men: Season Five and Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2. There are also some limited releases, like Moonrise Kingdom on Blu-ray Combo Pack and even some Direct-to-DVD releases, like Excision on Blu-ray. All of these were contenders for Pick of the Week. In the end I went with Mad Men: Season Five for Pick of the week, while Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2 earned Puck of the Week.
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2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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