December 18th, 2018
It’s an odd week on the home market, as there are four major first run releases coming out this week, but almost nothing else. Fun fact, I got screeners for all four of these films, although one of them arrived too late to review. Of these four, A Simple Favor is clearly the best and the DVD / Blu-ray / 4K is a contender for Pick of the Week. Its only competition is the 4K release for 2001: A Space Odyssey.
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December 16th, 2018
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Venom is the biggest hit Sony released this year. However, it was absolutely savaged by critics. Were the critics right? Did the audiences see some quality critics didn’t? Or is the movie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes?
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November 28th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald fell more than $100 million to $83.3 million on 27,922 screens in 80 markets for totals of $322.2 million internationally and $439.2 million worldwide. Its only new market was Japan, where it debuted with $13 million on 1,008 screens. By comparison, the first Fantastic Beasts earned $15.5 million during its debut in that market. The film’s best holdover was Germany, where it added $7.5 million on 1,460 screens lifting its running tally to $23.2 million after two weeks of release. On the other hand, it plummeted 82% during its second weekend in China down to just $6.44 million for a two-week total of $52.11 million. The film likely won’t reach $500 million internationally and its worldwide total might be as much as $200 million shy of its predecessor. This is still enough to be profitable, but there is reason to be concerned about the franchise going forward.
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November 20th, 2018
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald started its international run with $191.5 million on 50,865 screens in 79 markets for a worldwide debut of $253.7 million. Its largest opening was in China, but it had to settle for second place there with $36.68 million on 22,008 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $37.53 million. It had more impressive debuts in the U.K. ($16.3 million on 1,823 screens) and in Russia ($12.36 million on 1,623). The film had the best opening in the Harry Potter franchise in 21 markets, but overall, it was only 3% ahead of Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in the same markets. Its much weaker reviews will likely lead to shorter legs, but even so, it should still have no problem getting to $600 million worldwide and becoming Warner Bros.’ biggest hit of the year. If the next installment in the franchise falls just as much, then the studio will have reason to be concerned.
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November 14th, 2018
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Venom roared into first place with $117.30 million on 44,833 screens in 85 markets for totals of $467.71 million internationally and $674.01 million worldwide. Nearly all of the film’s weekend haul came from China, where it made $107.85 million in 40,000 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $110.40 million. Whoever made the decision to recut the movie to a PG-13 rating feels like a genius after this result.
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November 7th, 2018
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Bohemian Rhapsody rose to first place with $72.5 million in 64 markets for an early international total of $91.7 million. This week it opened in first place in both Mexico ($5.33 million) and Australia ($4.87 million). On the other hand, it only earned second place during its debut in South Korea with $4.40 million on 936 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.65 million. The film only fell 40% during its second weekend in the U.K. earning $7.56 million in 681 theaters for a two-week total of $26.88 million.
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October 31st, 2018
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Halloween rose from fifth to first with $26.0 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $46.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was Germany, where it earned first place with $3.41 million on 513 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fifth place in France with $2.37 million on 316 screens. Its Australian debut was in-between those two results at second place and $1.99 million on 264 screens. It’s best holdover was in Mexico, where it earned first place with $2.34 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.39 million. Like I mentioned last week, this film isn’t doing as well internationally as it is domestically, but it has done so well domestically that it will break even before taking its international numbers into consideration.
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October 30th, 2018
The month of October ends on a soft note with only one of the new releases we talked about in our prediction reached the top ten over the weekend. And even that film, Hunter Killer, didn’t quite reach our low expectations. Fortunately, Halloween came within a rounding error of predictions with $31.42 million and the overall box office wasn’t too bad at $104 million. Granted, this is 37% lower than last weekend, but this is to be expected for Halloween weekend. More importantly, the overall box office was 37% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has pulled in $9.55 billion, putting it ahead of 2017’s running tally of $8.45 billion. At first glance, this looks like 2018 has a $1 billion lead, but it was actually $999 million, according to our numbers. It will certainly get there by the end of business on Monday. This is a fantastic result, but a short-lived one, as November and December won’t be able to maintain this lead.
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October 28th, 2018
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Halloween’s weekend estimates are matching our predictions perfectly with $32.05 million. If this number holds, it will have $126.70 million after just ten days of release. Internationally, it is estimated to earn $25.6 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $45.6 million. It won’t match its domestic run internationally, but it doesn’t have to do be a financial success. In fact, since the film only cost $10 million to make, if it had just $45.6 million worldwide at this point, it would still have a chance of breaking even, eventually.
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October 27th, 2018
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As expected, Halloween earned first place on Friday. It was a little weaker than expected at $10.02 million and Universal’s estimate for the weekend is $30.05 million, compared to our prediction of $33 million. A $30 million sophomore stint is still fantastic for a film that cost just $10 million to make; in fact, it cracked $100 million domestically on Friday, which is more than enough to pay for its combined production / advertising budgets.
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October 26th, 2018
There’s only one true wide release of the weekend, Hunter Killer, which isn’t expected to make much of an impact at the box office. (Indivisible and Johnny English Strikes Again are both opening in several hundred theaters and one of them could reach the top ten, but probably not both.) This means Halloween will have no trouble repeating on top, while Venom could hold on better than most, thanks to Halloween being less than a week away. This weekend last year, Jigsaw opened in first place with $16.64 million, while Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than those two did giving 2018 yet another win.
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October 25th, 2018
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Venom earned its fourth first place finish on the international chart with $33.17 million on 14,966 screens in 83 markets for totals of $291.61 million internationally and $462.68 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it has yet to open in Japan and China, so it has a shot at $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which would be more than enough to become Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018.
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October 23rd, 2018
Halloween opened on the high end of expectations earning $76.22 million during its opening weekend. This tops The Nun’s previous best opening for a horror film released this year of $53.81 million. Both The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun expanded into the top ten, which also helped the overall box office a little but. Speaking of the overall box office, it rose 21% from last weekend, hitting $165 million. More impressively, this was 72% higher than the same weekend last year. Normally, a year-over-year change this dramatic only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but this has been happening a lot this year. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead over 2017 climbed to $960 million or 11.3% at $9.39 billion to $8.44 billion. There’s no way this lead will remain this high at the end of the year, but it would take a serious collapse for 2018 to not finish with a higher total box office than 2017.
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October 21st, 2018
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According to Universal’s numbers, Halloween is going to debut with $77.75 million over the weekend. This is by far the biggest opening in the franchise; in fact, it is the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise after just three days at the domestic box office. Its reviews are 80% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, and both of those suggest better-than-average legs, for a horror film. Plus, with actual Halloween just 10 days away, it could hold better next weekend than it otherwise would. I don’t expect it to get to $200 million domestically, but it will become Universal’s second-biggest hit of 2018, at least so far. Internationally, the film looks to pull in $14.3 million in 23 markets. It wasn’t able to match its opening here in any major market, which isn’t surprising given its start here. It will come the closest in Mexico, as it is estimated to make $4.99 million over the weekend. It only managed second place in the U.K. with a projected $3.61 million over the weekend, which is equivalent to a $20 million opening here.
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October 20th, 2018
Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up.
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October 19th, 2018
In order to match predictions, Halloween needed to at least match The Nun’s previews, while I would have preferred it top that film’s number by 10%. That means it needed to earn $5.4 million to $6.0 million for me to be satisfied it would match our $63 million prediction. It earned $7.7 million last night. Combine this with its reviews and it could break the October weekend record, set earlier this month by Venom, with just over $80 million, but $75 million is more likely.
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October 18th, 2018
Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 17th, 2018
Venom remained the top draw internationally earning $70.89 million on 20,248 screens in 83 markets for totals of $236.49 million internationally and $378.60 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was France, where it opened in first place with $6.65 million on 703 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.04 million. It also opened in first place in Thailand with $2.14 million on 365 screens and in Vietnam with $1.05 million on 501 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.22 million. Its biggest market overall is South Korea, where it has amassed $25.41 million, including $4.38 million on 1,011 screens this past weekend. At this pace, the film will soon overtake Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, becoming Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018.
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October 16th, 2018
Last weekend, Venom and A Star is Born opened better than predicted by a large margin and they even held on better than expected this weekend. Unfortunately, none of the new releases matched predictions and that hurt the overall box office. The total box office was down 25% from last weekend at $136 million. More importantly, this is 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is ahead of 2017 at $9.18 billion to $8.31 billion, which is a $880 million or 10.5% lead. A double-digit lead at this point of the year is stunning and while it very likely won’t last, it would take an complete collapse for the lead to evaporate by the end of the year.
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October 14th, 2018
Last weekend, the new releases topped expectations by a significant degree. It appears I got caught up in that enthusiasm, because the three wide releases this weekend all missed expectations. Fortunately, the holdovers helped compensate. Venom is projected to fall just 56% to $35.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $142.6 million. This is a stunningly strong hold, given its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and historical averages for comic book films. Internationally, it pulled in $69.7 million and globally it already has $378.1 million. The film cost $100 million or $116 million, depending on how you look at things. It’s $116 million on the screen, but it cost Sony $100 million after tax breaks. Depending on how much the film cost to advertise and how much Sony’s share of the box office is, the film might have already broken even. It will certainly break even by this time next week.
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October 13th, 2018
All of the new releases missed expectations on Friday. This combined with better than expected holds for the holdovers meant there won’t be any new challengers for first place. That said, there will be a relatively close race for first place between Venom and A Star is Born. Venom fell 70% compared to its opening Friday earning $9.79 million. This is enough to put it on pace for $32 million during its sophomore stint, which is on the very high end of expectations.
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October 11th, 2018
There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million.
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October 10th, 2018
The overall box office leader, Venom, was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $18,884. Studio 54 was yet another documentary success story opening with $14,909 in its lone theater. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Free Solo with an average of $13,726 in 41 theaters and by the end of Sunday, it was nearly at $1 million. The Hate U Give was close behind with an average of $13,336 in 36 theaters. Finally, A Star is Born was the last film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $12,373 in wide release.
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October 9th, 2018
Venom dominated the international chart with $127.15 million on 22,319 screens in 76 markets. Both Russia and South Korea could claim top spot for the film. In the former, it earned $14.39 million in 2,672 screens over the weekend. In the latter, it earned $10.63 million on 1,295 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.48 million. The film debuted in Mexico with $10.07 million on 3,465 screens. It also cracked the $10 million mark in the U.K., if you include previews, as it earned $7.42 million on 867 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.50 million. The film has yet to open in France, Japan, and China, although I’m not convinced it will get passed Chinese censors.
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October 9th, 2018
Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress.
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October 7th, 2018
If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit.
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October 6th, 2018
Despite earning terrible reviews, Venom was able to destroy the record for biggest October day with $32.75 million on Friday, topping the previous record holder Paranormal Activity 3 by a significant margin. Not only will the film blow past $70 million over the weekend, it could come close to $80 million. On the down side, as previously mentioned, its reviews are terrible, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it won’t have good legs going forward. That said, the film reportedly cost $100 million to make ($116 million on the screen, $100 million after tax breaks) so even tragically short legs won’t stop the film from breaking even.
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October 5th, 2018
Venom has already broken records earning $10 million during its previews. This tops the previous record of $8 million held by Paranormal Activity 3 back in 2011. If the film has the same legs, then Venmon will earn a little more than $65 million over the weekend. However, there are some reasons to suspect this film won’t have the same legs. Firstly, its reviews are substantially worse than Paranormal Activity 3’s reviews were. Secondly, 2011 was a long time ago and previews were not as established as they are now, so getting to $8 million then is a little more impressive than getting to $10 million now. Sony is still sticking with a $55 million weekend debut, which is very likely just them being cautious. Our $57 million prediction does seem a little low now, with $60 million to $65 million being more likely.
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October 4th, 2018
The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself.
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October 1st, 2018
September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
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April 26th, 2018
Super hero action movie starring Tom Hardy opens October 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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February 8th, 2018
Super hero action movie starring Tom Hardy opens October 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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