Weekend Estimates: Venom Punches its Way to the Top with $80 million
October 7, 2018
If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit.
A Star is Born is estimated to earn $41.25 million during its opening weekend, putting it within a rounding error of our prediction and above most tracking numbers. Its reviews remain over 90% positive, while it earned an A from CinemaScore. It wasn’t as potent internationally with $14 million on 4,590 screens in 31 markets, but assuming its legs are good, it should have no trouble getting past $200 million worldwide, which would be enough to break even before reaching the home market.
Smallfoot is projected to drop just 35% to $14.9 million during its sophomore stint, which would give it a two-week total of $42.8 million. If this holds, it should match its $80 million production budget domestically. It is also expected to add $11.7 million internationally and if it maintains this pace, it will finish with over $150 million worldwide, perhaps even $200 million.
It looks like Night School will come within a rounding error of our prediction with $12.28 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $46.75 million. This is more than it cost to make, which is great news for its financial success.
The House with a Clock in its Walls will round out the top five with $7.30 million over the weekend for a total of $55.05 million after three weeks of release. It is not doing as well internationally, but it is doing well enough to break even early in its home market run, if not sooner.
The Hate U Give started its run in limited release and is projected to earn $500,000 in just 36 theaters. This combined with its reviews strongly suggest it will be able to expand next week. I’m not sure if it will be able to expand wide the following week. On the other hand, Shine bombed with a reported opening weekend of just over $200,000 in over 600 theaters. It could have earned $200,000 during its opening day and it still would have missed the Mendoza Line during the full weekend.
- Venom Comparisons
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- A Star is Born Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Venom, Smallfoot, A Star is Born, Night School, The Hate U Give, The House with a Clock in its Walls, Shine