May 29th, 2016
It's a big week for first-run releases with four such films coming out. However, none of them are top-notch releases. Race is the best, but even then it is only worth a rental. Sadly, none of the limited releases, TV on DVD releases, catalog releases, etc. are really big releases either. Hello, My Name is Doris is a great movie, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand this week. I'm going with Veggie Tales: And Now It's Time for Silly Songs with Larry: The Complete Collection on DVD as the Pick of the Week. It really is a slow week for new releases.
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February 29th, 2016
As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace.
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February 26th, 2016
Gods of Egypt had the best showing among new releases from its Thursday previews; however, best is being used as a relative term, as it only managed $800,000. By comparison, 13 Hours pulled in $900,000 earlier this year. If the film’s reviews hurt its word of mouth, and I can’t imagine they won’t, then we are looking at a domestic total of about $40 million on a $140 million production budget. In fact, it will likely make less during its opening weekend than the $15.3 million reportedly spend on TV ads leading up to its release.
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February 26th, 2016
There are three wide releases looking to overtake Deadpool at the box office. I seriously doubt any of them will be able to do so. In fact, all three combined might not top Deadpool over the weekend. Gods of Egypt is by far the biggest costing $140 million, but it likely won't earn 10% of that over the weekend. Triple 9 is a rather generic action film that bombed in its debut in the U.K., which doesn't bode well for its run here. Finally, Eddie the Eagle is a feel-good inspirational sports movie based on a real life story. Unfortunately, the sport in question is ski-jumping, which isn't popular enough to expect the movie will find an audience in theaters. This weekend last year, Focus was the top film, but Deadpool will likely beat it by $10 million over the weekend. It should be a relatively good week for 2016.
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February 25th, 2016
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The winners of our Race to the Top contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Race opening weekend were...
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February 23rd, 2016
Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion.
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February 21st, 2016
After a $132 million opening, Deadpool wasn’t under much threat at the top of the chart this weekend, so a fairly sharp 58% decline to $55 million this weekend still leaves it dominant in movie theaters. That softness might be a slight concern going forwards, but for now Fox is reveling in having a February hit that has already grossed close to $500 million worldwide (Sunday’s official estimate is $491.9 million), and having Kung Fu Panda 3 hold on to second place with $12.5 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $117 million. That left the three new wide releases fighting for places lower down the chart, although their performance was by no means all doom and gloom.
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February 20th, 2016
Deadpool landed on the low end of expectations on Friday with $16.23 million. This puts it on pace to reach $56 million over the weekend, which is way more than the three new wide releases will earn. It also keeps the film on pace for more than $300 million domestically. Had it cost the usual $150 million to $200 million for a comic book movie, it still would have broken even.
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February 19th, 2016
The Witch had the fastest start on Thursday, with $630,000 from preview shows. This is almost identical to what Krampus earned late last year and that film earned $16 million during its opening weekend. Granted, Krampus was the only wide release that weekend and didn’t have to deal with any film as big as Deadpool. That said, this is still a good result for the film and it suggests it will top predictions, especially if moviegoers like it as much as critics did. Additionally, A24 said the advertising budget was “nominal” and that it was focused on the planned VOD / home market release in three months. It could break even by this time next week.
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February 19th, 2016
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The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies.
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February 18th, 2016
The winners of our You're Dead to Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deadpool opening weekend were...
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February 12th, 2016
There are three wide releases next week. Of those three, I think it is safe to say The Witch has the weakest box office potential. However, there could be a close race between Race and Risen. Furthermore, both films lend themselves to contest names. (Race to the Top vs. Rise to the Top.) However, faith-based films tend to be too unpredictable, so we are going with Race as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Race.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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