Home Market Releases for September 12th, 2017

September 13th, 2017

Apparently it is Halloween, because there are a lot of horror titles on this week’s list. Some of them are good, some are not. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are a few of them. If you have kids, then Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra Combo Pack is your best bet. If you are a fan of Sci-fi, then go with the final season for Orphan Black. However, in the end I went with Phenomena on Blu-ray. You can also buy the movie from the Official Site in a Steelbox with soundtrack and pamphlet. More...

Home Market Releases for September 5th, 2017

September 5th, 2017

There are a few first-run releases coming out this week, but none of them did well enough in theaters and / or with critics to bother with above the fold, so to speak. There is one exception, The Big Sick, but it is only coming out on VOD this week. I’m hoping a Blu-ray screener is on its way. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are, in alphabetical order, Emmet Otter’s Jug-Band Christmas on DVD, Mr. Mom on Blu-ray, and Rebecca: Criterion Collection on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Alfred Hitchcock classic as the Pick of the Week. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Mummy

September 3rd, 2017

The Mummy came out this summer and was supposed to kick off Universal’s Dark Universe franchise. In fact, Universal had announced about a dozen films in the franchise, at least one of which had a release date, but no star. Then the reviews started coming out. For a short time, The Mummy was the worst wide release of the summer. It bombed domestically and even though it did a lot better internationally, it still failed to pay for its nearly $200 million production budget. Was is unfairly attacked by critics? Or does Universal need to rethink their plans for a Dark Universe? More...

Home Market Releases for August 22nd, 2017

August 23rd, 2017

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 comes out this week and it is such a big release that is scared away nearly all of the competition. Fortunately, it is also a great film and a serious contender for Pick of the Week. The main competition are Ash vs Evil Dead: Season 2 and Supergirl: Season 2. In the end. I went with Ash vs Evil Dead, but it was a close race. More...

Weekend Estimates: Annabelle to the Rescue

August 13th, 2017

After a series of lackluster weekends at the box office, Annabelle: Creation is doing its bit to clear away the end-of-Summertime blues with a $35 million opening this weekend. That’s right in line with the $37 million Annabelle opened with three years ago, which is an impressive performance for a horror franchise. It’s also the best opening for a horror movie since Split’s $40 million start back in January. The first film in the franchise fell away quite rapidly, and ended up with $84 million in total, so a final total of over $100 million is far from assured, but with a production budget of only $15 million, and probably not much more than $20 million in marketing, this should be a highly profitable movie for Warner Bros., especially since the franchise is popular globally. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Annabelle Scare the Box Office to Life?

August 10th, 2017

Unless Annabelle: Creation is a $30 million hit, it is safe to say summer ended a couple of weeks ago. The film has about a 50/50 chance of getting there. The Nut Job: Nutty by Nature is widely expected set a record this week, but not a good one. Finally there’s The Glass Castle, which is only opening semi-wide. Overall, the box office looks weak compared to this weekend last year. Sausage Party opened with $34.26 million, which is more than any film this year will make. Worse still, Suicide Squad won the weekend with $43.54 million. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 in the year-over-year comparison by at least $43.54 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dunkirk Does in the Competition with $26.61 million

August 1st, 2017

Summer is coming to a close, as the two new releases, The Emoji Movie and Atomic Blonde had okay openings over the weekend. Dunkirk was able to earn first place with $26.61 million, which is great news for that movie, but bad news for the overall box office, as it is the worst result for a number one film since April. Overall, the box office fell 20% from last week to $144 million. This is 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by 1.7% or $120 million at $6.70 billion to $6.82 billion. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Apes Battle for $5 million Debut

July 14th, 2017

War for the Planet of the Apes started its box office run with $5 million in Thursday previews, which is a little lower than expected, but not tragically so. For example, Alien: Covenant earned $4.2 million during its previews on its was to a $36.16 million weekend. If War for the Planet of the Apes has the same legs, it would make $43 million this weekend. On the other hand, The Mummy earned $2.66 million pulling in $31.67 million during its opening weekend. If War for the Planet has the same legs as that film, it would earn just shy of $60 million during its opening weekend. War has much better reviews than either of those films, to it could have better legs than either of those films. That said, it is also the third installment in the reboot franchise and that tends to shrink legs. The average is just over $50 million, which sounds about right. More...

In Defense of Rotten Tomatoes

July 4th, 2017

I’ve seen a lot of people attacking Rotten Tomatoes recently saying it is bad for the movie business. Some even point to Transformers: The Last Knight as proof that the site can ruin a film’s box office chances. Besides that charge, the other two main complaints I’m hearing over and over again are A.) Rotten Tomatoes is a very shallow site, especially the Tomatometer. And B.) It is killing in-depth critical examination of movies. I’ll tackle those claims below. More...

International Box Office: Last Knight Shines Bright with $196.2 million

June 29th, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight dominated the international box office chart earning $196.2 million in 40 markets, picking up first place in each of those markets. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, this is slightly ahead of Age of Extinction’s combined opening in these markets. Bad news, most of it came from China, where studios only get 25% of the box office, instead of an average 40% in other international markets. The Chinese debut was impressive, $127.24 million on 7,800 screens, including previews. It also did well in South Korea with $9.53 million on 1,727 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.87 million. It was nearly as potent in Russia with $8.45 million on 1,456 screens. On the other hand, its openings in the U.K. ($5.90 million in 577 theaters) and in Australia ($3.39 million on 539 screens) were actually worse than its opening here, given the relative size of the markets involved. The film has yet to open in several major markets, including France, where it opens this weekend, so it should remain active on the international chart for a while. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: Knight is First for the Weekend, Last for the Franchise with $44.68 million

June 27th, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight had the weekend to itself, but it couldn’t take advantage earning $44.68 million / $68.48 million over the full five days. It earned less over five days than last year’s winner, Finding Dory, earned over three days. Wonder Woman remained in second place becoming just the third film released in 2017 to hit $300 million, but there was not much else to celebrate at the box office. This explains why the overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $139 million. More importantly, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 is still ahead of 2016, but its lead was cut in half to just 1.3% or $70 million. This is a little distressing. More...

Weekend Predictions: Last Knight Opened Last Night with $15.65 million

June 22nd, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close. More...

International Box Office: The Mummy Tumbles, Still Tops Chart with $53.0 million

June 22nd, 2017

The Mummy remained on top of the international box office chart, but it fell more than 60% to $53.0 million in 68 markets for totals of $239.1 million internationally and $296.2 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France, but with just $3.0 million on 615 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it was down 77% to $11.63 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $81.62 million. Its best market is arguably South Korea, where it added $3.73 million on 933 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.64 million. The only major market left for the film is Japan, where it opens at the end of the month. It is on pace for about $400 million worldwide, which is not enough to pay for its $195 million production budget. Even if it is a bigger than expected hit on the home market, it will have trouble covering its combined production and advertising budget, which is at least $300 million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will The Last Knight Transformer Paramount’s Predicament?

June 21st, 2017

We have early predictions this week, as Transformers: The Last Knight is out in theaters on Wednesday. (We will get to the holdovers at the regular time.) The Last Knight has to be a monster hit, because the studio, Paramount, is in a slump the likes of which you rarely see. The last time they had a $200 million hit domestically was the last Transformer movie to hit theaters. The last time they had more than a 10% share of the box office was the last time they had the distribution rights to some of the MCU movies. Speaking of combined universes, The Last Knight is supposed to be the creation of a new Hasbro Combined Universe with this franchise and G.I. Joe being the heart of the new universe. This could fail for the same reasons The Mummy failed to jump start the Dark Universe franchise. Namely, the reviews are terrible and audiences are tired of combined universes being forced instead of growing organically. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Cars 3 Crosses the Finish Line with $53.69 million

June 20th, 2017

As expected, Cars 3 earned first place over the weekend, but it did so with just $53.69 million, which is lower than anticipated. On the other hand, Wonder Woman remains one of the most impressive wide releases of 2017 when it comes to legs. Even if it didn’t earn another dollar, it would still have above average legs. All Eyez on Me went off to a fast start, but has a troubling internal multiplier, which doesn’t bode well for its future. Overall, the box office rose 31% from last weekend to $189 million. Unfortunately, it fell 19% from the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Fortunately, 2017 still has a sizable lead over 2016 at $5.16 billion to $5.00 billion. More...

Friday Estimates: Cars Doesn’t Burn up the Track, Still Wins Friday with $19.5 million

June 17th, 2017

As expected, Cars 3 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little more subdued than expected, with just $19.5 million for the day. This is a higher opening day than The Lego Batman Movie managed, but family films have a much higher internal multiplier outside of summer, because kids won’t be able to see the movie during matinees on the Friday. If it has the same internal multiplier as Finding Dory had, it would open with $48 million. While Cars 3’s reviews are not as good, it earned an A from CinemaScore, the same as Dory did. Furthermore, Cars 3 is being seen much more by kids than Dory was, as that film had a larger share of adult animation fans, so this should also help its legs. It won’t match our prediction of $58 million, but $51 million is still a great result. More...

Thursday Night Previews: The Eyez Have it earning $3.1 million

June 16th, 2017

All Eyez on Me surprised analysts earning $3.1 million during its previews last night. This is better than The Mummy’s $2.66 million earned last weekend, while its reviews are also marginally better. Granted, its Tomatometer score is just 27% positive, so that could kill the film’s legs by Saturday, but this is still a very positive start and the movie will almost assuredly top our prediction of just under $20 million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Cars Take the Checkered Flag?

June 15th, 2017

It’s a busy week with four truly wide releases, led by Cars 3. The latest film from Pixar is widely expected to earn first place at the box office, but it is part of the only Pixar franchise that isn’t a critical darling. Rough Night is playing in 3,000 theaters, but its early reviews are mixed and that's not going to help its box office numbers. All Eyez on Me is playing in 2,450 theaters, but its early reviews are even worse. Meanwhile, 47 Meters Down’s early reviews were 78% positive, but that has since changed for the worse. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Finding Dory and Central Intelligence, which earned a combined $170 million. There’s no way the four new releases coming out this week will match that. Even another strong hold by Wonder Woman won’t make a difference in the year-over-year competition and 2017 is going to lose. More...

International Box Office: The Mummy Comes Alive Internationally with $140.76 million

June 14th, 2017

The Mummy debuted in first place on the international chart with $140.76 million on 19,078 screens in 63 markets. The film’s biggest market was China, no surprise there. It earned $52.4 million on 7,364 screens, which is better than Wonder Woman’s opening there last weekend. The film did even better in South Korea, relatively speaking, with an opening weekend of $8.61 million on 1,254 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.80 million. This includes a record for opening day in that market of $6.6 million, while the total opening was the best for Universal. On the downside, the film struggled in the U.K. earning second place with $4.2 million in 563 theaters. That’s weaker than its performance here, relative to the size of the two markets. Furthermore, the film only has two major markets left to open in, France and Japan, while its reviews will likely really hurt its legs. It will earn enough worldwide to pay for its production budget, assuming the $125 million reports are accurate. More...

Contest: Wrap It Up: Winning Announcement

June 14th, 2017

The winners of our Wrap It Up contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Mummy’s opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wonder Woman is the Spider-Man of Super Heroes

June 13th, 2017

The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally. More...

Weekend Estimates: Mummy’s $32 Million Debut No Match for Wonder Woman

June 11th, 2017

There are precious few crumbs of comfort to be found from Universal’s launch of The Mummy this weekend. The studio is projecting a $32.2 million opening this weekend from 4,035 theaters. That will be a fairly distant second to Wonder Woman, which is expected to earn about $57.1 million. Even the bright news—that this is Tom Cruise’s biggest global opening weekend—comes with an asterisk. More...

Friday Estimates: Wonder Woman Wows Again with $15.8 million

June 10th, 2017

At the beginning of the month, I assumed this weekend would be a close race between Wonder Woman and The Mummy. I assumed The Mummy would at least win on Friday, but that’s not the case, as Wonder Woman remains the number one box office draw. The film earned $15.8 million on Friday, which is 59% lower than its opening Friday. It should bounce back on Saturday and finish the weekend with $53 million, which is just a 49% sophomore stint drop-off. A super hero movie falling less than 50% during its second weekend of release is simply stunning. Granted, its reviews are among the best of the year, so having better than average legs was expect. That said, a 49% drop-off is still an amazing performance and should lead to more than a few movie executives to look for ways to copy its success. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Is The Mummy Dead on Arrival with $2.66 million?

June 9th, 2017

The Mummy started its domestic box office run last night earning $2.66 million in previews. This is well below expectations and it was already expected to struggle. To put this into perspective, it only earned approximately a quarter of what Wonder Woman managed last week and less than half of what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned the weekend before that. Add in reviews that are just 20% positive and there’s a chance the film’s word-of-mouth will kill the film’s legs by this evening. At this point, a $30 million opening could be asking too much. $25 million isn’t even a sure thing anymore. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Mummy Bury the Competition?

June 8th, 2017

Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Contest: Wonder Why: Winning Announcement

June 7th, 2017

The winners of our Wonder Why contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Wonder Woman’s opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Tall Tales: Winning Announcement

June 4th, 2017

The winners of our Tall Tales contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales’s opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Wrap It Up

June 2nd, 2017

There are two, maybe three wide releases coming out next week; however, if Wonder Woman lives up to expectations, it will have a great shot at repeating in top spot. The only film with a chance of earning first place is The Mummy. Because it is clearly the biggest new release, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Mummy.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2017 Preview: June

June 1st, 2017

May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead. More...

The Mummy Trailer

May 22nd, 2017

Fantasy adventure starring Tom Cruise, Sofia Boutella, and Annabelle Wallis opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details. More...

The Mummy Trailer

December 5th, 2016

Monster adventure starring Tom Cruise opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details. More...