This graph shows Russell Crowe’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Sporting an eight-day domestic total of $250 million, The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again finds itself as the widest release as it heads into its second weekend, adding 28 locations for a total of 4,371 cinemas. The animated adventure opened last Wednesday and took in an impressive $204.6 million in its first five days. Mario and friends shouldn’t have any trouble staying on top at the box office despite the arrival of six wide releases making their theatrical debuts.
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It looks as though we’ll have another down weekend for total domestic box office, with perhaps $11 million in combined ticket sales for all movies, compared to $12.3 million last weekend, but there are a few small grains of good news to be found. Infidel topped (very modest) expectations, with a projected opening of $1.5 million, and the four other films still playing in wide release that have reported so far all had relatively good holds by historical standards. Tenet hit the $250 million mark worldwide, but Mulan continues to struggle.
Last weekend, the domestic box office started its long road to recovery with two wide releases in Canada. While The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run failed to meet expectations, Unhinged got off to a surprisingly strong start. This weekend, the Russell Crowe thriller expands into the United States, and how well it does there will give us a sense of the overall box office’s health going forward.
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For the first time in a long, long time there are wide releases to talk about. That is, two films are opening wide... in Canada: The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run and Unhinged. While Canada is a lot smaller than the United States, it is still a large enough part of the domestic box office that we should see the best domestic weekend since the pandemic caused theaters to be shut down in March.
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It has been a long time since we’ve seen a theatrical release from a major studio in North America, but that grim record may finally change in August. While there are only three major releases still on the calendar, and things remain in flux, it seems likely that at least one of them will open on their current release date.
That assumption is based partly on Warner Bros.’ decision to go ahead with Tenet’s release on September 3, and United Artists’ release of Bill and Ted Face the Music in theaters and VOD on September 1. With theaters steadily opening internationally, the pressure to release new films has become too great, even while the pandemic continues to rage in the United States. Even if expectations are very low domestically, it makes sense to start releasing films that have some international appeal, can lure moviegoers back to theaters in small numbers in the US, and then can make back more money from domestic video releases.
In the first part of this month’s preview, we look at the films that are lined up to open in August. Tomorrow, we’ll analyze what it’ll take to get box office earnings close to normal, and how long we can expect that to take, at least in countries that are bringing the pandemic under control.
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Will there be a new wide theatrical release in July?
Just over two weeks ago, the answer to that question looked like it might be yes.
NATO, the North American Theater Owners trade association, said they expected about 90% of theaters would re-open by the time Tenet was set to debut on July 17. Things have changed since then, to say the least.
The overly-optimistic predictions came before the United States topped 40,000 newly-detected COVID-19 cases in a single day for multiple days in a row. Now that we’re at the beginning of July, only one film is still scheduled to open wide this month, Unhinged, that’s hanging on by a thread. That prompts the question, when can we realistically expect to see a new wide release?
Rachel is running late to work when she has an altercation at a traffic light with a stranger whose life has left him feeling powerless and invisible. Soon, Rachel finds herself and everyone she loves the target of a man who decides to make one last mark upon the world by teaching her a series of deadly lessons. What follows is a dangerous game of cat and mouse that proves you never know just how close you are to someone who is about to become unhinged.
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The true story of one young man’s struggle to find himself while being forced to question every aspect of his identity. Jared is the son of a Baptist pastor in a small American town, who is outed as gay to his parents at age 19. Jared is faced with an ultimatum: attend a gay conversion therapy program or be permanently exiled and shunned by his family, friends, and faith.
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The Mummy came out this summer and was supposed to kick off Universal’s Dark Universe franchise. In fact, Universal had announced about a dozen films in the franchise, at least one of which had a release date, but no star. Then the reviews started coming out. For a short time, The Mummy was the worst wide release of the summer. It bombed domestically and even though it did a lot better internationally, it still failed to pay for its nearly $200 million production budget. Was is unfairly attacked by critics? Or does Universal need to rethink their plans for a Dark Universe?
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There are not many major hits on this week’s list, but there are several releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes TV on DVD releases like Ash vs The Evil Dead: Season 1 (DVD or Blu-ray), as well as limited releases like Maggie’s Plan (DVD or Blu-ray). However, in the end I went with The Nice Guys on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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Furious 7 will once more hold on to the title of top movie at the box office this weekend, becoming the first film since Guardians of the Galaxy to do so for four weekends, and the first since The Hunger Games to be number one for four straight weeks. Furious 7 will also become this weekend only the third title, after Avatar and Titanic, to hit $1 billion in international box office earnings. Universal is estimating an international total of $1.001 billion, including $323 million in China—an all-time record for that territory.
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If there is a theme with this week's limited releases, it is actors making their directorial debuts. There are three such films, including The Water Diviner. None of these film are earning overwhelmingly positive reviews, but The Water Diviner comes the closest.
Noah was a risky movie to make. It is a Bible Epic, which is to say, it uses a Bible story to tell an epic movie, as opposed to a faith-based film aimed at churchgoers. It was bound to offend that target audience, while being based on the Bible was bound to turn off those who get annoyed at those who get offended by films like Noah. Should either of these audiences give the film a second chance? Will it appeal to churchgoers? Is it an entertaining film, even for those who don't believe?
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2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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December ended on a positive note with 2012 topping 2011 with a week to spare. Hopefully this will translate into strong box office numbers going forward. There are several January releases that actually look very interesting, but you always have to ask, if the films are as good as they look, why are they opening in January? The biggest hit on this list will likely not be a January release, but a limited release from December that is expanding wide in January. Zero Dark Thirty opened in limited release the Wednesday before Christmas and right away it got off to an incredible start. If it can turn some of its Awards Season nominations into wins, which seems very likely at this point, it should be the biggest hit of January. If it can earn some major Oscars, then it might crack $100 million. Unfortunately, no other film on this release list is likely to come close to the $100 million mark. Last January was unseasonably strong with three films opening with $20 million or more and four films finishing with $50 million or more. It is possible that none of the new releases will reach those relatively weak standards.
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November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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October was pretty good with a few films really crushing expectations, which made up for the few duds that opened at the end. 2012 gained about $100 million over 2011 during the month of October. We really needed this success and hopefully November will continue this push forward. However, November is a bit of a weird month. There are five weekends, but only eight true wide releases, half of which open on the Thanksgiving long weekend, leaving the other four weeks with just one true wide release each. There are a couple others opening in the semi-wide level and another opening in limited release with a planned wide release, but even so, it is not a busy month. That said, it is a case of quality over quantity. There are four films that are pretty much guaranteed to reach $100 million, one of which should reach $300 million. By comparison, last November only produced one $100 million film. Granted, that film was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, which made nearly $300 million, which is a huge number no matter how you look at it. But this year, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 should top that number and with the other $100 million movies pulling in more than $400 million combined, it should be a very profitable month at the box office.
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