Weekend Predictions: Can Mummy Bury the Competition?

June 8, 2017

The Mummy

Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.

Wonder Woman opened with $103 million last weekend and should repeat on top of the chart this weekend, due in part to healthy legs, and in part due to unhealthy competition. Granted, it is a comic book movie, one dealing with high Fangirl Effect, so even 93% positive reviews won’t prevent it from falling more than 50%. However, it will certainly have better legs than the other films in the DCEU, so its main competition are some of the recent introductory movies in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Guardians of the Galaxy, for example, fell 55% during its sophomore stint. If Wonder Woman did the same, it would earn between $46 million and $47 million. I think that’s the bar for success for the film. Anything more than $47 million and it is an unqualified success, while if it earns less than $46 million, but comes close, it will be a good result, for a comic book movie. I’m optimistic it will do well earning $49 million over the weekend pushing its running tally past $200 million after ten days of release.

The Mummy is the second attempt to start a combined Universal Movie Monster Universe. The first attempt started and ended with Dracula Untold. That film was eviscerated by the critics and struggled to break even. (It probably broke even, eventually.) This new attempt, branded the Dark Universe, is hoping to get off to a better start, but I’m not so sure that will happen for three reasons. Firstly, while the Marvel Cinematic Universe is drowning in money, moviegoers are not interested in forced cinematic universes. Secondly, at the beginning of the week, Universal announced two more movies in this franchise, bringing the total announced to at least six, all before a single review for the first film was published. Finally, when the reviews finally came in, they were terrible. At the moment, The Mummy’s reviews are barely better than those earned by Dracula Untold and are actually lower than those earned by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Suicide Squad. I think the film will open with $34 million, but finish with less than $100 million, thus putting the rest of the Dark Universe in doubt.

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie should fall to third place with just over $12 million over the weekend. It did miss expectations last weekend, but its reviews are great and CinemaScore is good enough, so it should have better than average legs. It won’t have legs as strong as some family films, but if it can cross $70 million domestically, then it will have an excellent shot at breaking even during its initial push onto the home market.

It Comes at Night hasd already set a record for A24, as it is opening in just over 2,500 theaters, making it the distributor’s widest release ever. It is also earning excellent reviews with a Tomatometer Score of 90% positive. On the downside, A24 has only had three films that have earned more than $25 million and none of them managed to top $30 million, so the lack of breakout hits hurts this film’s chances. I do think it will be the biggest hit in the distributor’s history, starting with a $12 million opening this weekend.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales should round out the top five with $10 million over the weekend for a total of over $135 million after three weeks of release. Like I’ve said in the past, it is doing well enough to break even eventually, but not well enough to extend the franchise.

The final new release of the week is Megan Leavey, which may or may not be opening truly wide. It is being released by Bleecker Street, who have released only one film that has earned more than $10 million at the box office. Megan Leavey could become the second, depending on how many theaters it is opening in. I’ve seen a theater count 1,000, so as long as the film doesn’t miss the Mendoza Line, it will reach the top ten with $2 million. It could earn as much as $4 million, putting it in a race for sixth place, but $3 million is more likely.

- The Mummy Comparisons
- It Comes At Night Comparisons
- Megan Leavey Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, The Mummy, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Megan Leavey, It Comes at Night, Pirates of the Caribbean, Marvel Cinematic Universe, DC Extended Universe, Dark Universe