November 23rd, 2016
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The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last night and thus the 2016 Awards Season begins. There were a few surprises and some snubs to discuss, but for the most part, there’s not a lot nominations that broke the established narrative. It’s because there isn’t really an established narrative. This means films that earn nominations here have a much better chance of doing well going forward and Moonlight looks like it could rise up as a result.
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June 5th, 2016
The Confirmation opened in limited release, and Video on Demand in March. Like most films that debut on Video on Demand, this one went nowhere at the box office. Will it do better on DVD / Blu-ray?
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May 17th, 2016
The Deadpool Blu-ray arrived last Tuesday, which is par for course for Fox, as their screeners always seem to arrive as late as possible while still technically not being late. There are updates below with the extras. On a side note, the film is so good, I was tempted to make it the Pick of the Week for the second week in a row. However, in the end I went with Dark Passage, a classic Film Noir with a famous hook. The Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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May 16th, 2016
The Witch only cost $3.5 million to make and barely opened in more than 2,000 theaters during its opening weekend. It was never going to be a monster hit. Even becoming a midlevel hit was likely out of the question. It did, on the other hand, earn more than $25 million, which is enough to make the studio happy, but likely not enough to break even just yet. In order to become a financial success, it will need to do as well on the home market. On the positive side, the reviews were 90% positive. On the negative side, the audience reaction on Rotten Tomatoes was a lot lower at 55% positive. Is this a horror film that will only please critics and leave the average moviegoer wanting more?
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May 13th, 2016
Money Monster earned $600,000 during its Thursday night previews. That's better than Hail, Caesar! ($543,000) or Mother's Day ($250,000). However, it is still nothing to truly celebrate. It still has a chance to match our predictions, but $10 million seems more likely.
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May 2nd, 2016
This week the biggest releases are busted Oscar-bait, Joy; a post-apocalyptic young adult adaptation, The 5th Wave; and the latest from Nicholas Sparks, The Choice. Joy is worth at least a rental. The other two are not. There are no major releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week, so that title will go to a smaller release, East Side Sushi on DVD. It has earned unanimously positive reviews, but no buzz.
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February 29th, 2016
As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace.
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February 23rd, 2016
Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion.
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February 21st, 2016
After a $132 million opening, Deadpool wasn’t under much threat at the top of the chart this weekend, so a fairly sharp 58% decline to $55 million this weekend still leaves it dominant in movie theaters. That softness might be a slight concern going forwards, but for now Fox is reveling in having a February hit that has already grossed close to $500 million worldwide (Sunday’s official estimate is $491.9 million), and having Kung Fu Panda 3 hold on to second place with $12.5 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $117 million. That left the three new wide releases fighting for places lower down the chart, although their performance was by no means all doom and gloom.
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February 20th, 2016
Deadpool landed on the low end of expectations on Friday with $16.23 million. This puts it on pace to reach $56 million over the weekend, which is way more than the three new wide releases will earn. It also keeps the film on pace for more than $300 million domestically. Had it cost the usual $150 million to $200 million for a comic book movie, it still would have broken even.
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February 19th, 2016
The Witch had the fastest start on Thursday, with $630,000 from preview shows. This is almost identical to what Krampus earned late last year and that film earned $16 million during its opening weekend. Granted, Krampus was the only wide release that weekend and didn’t have to deal with any film as big as Deadpool. That said, this is still a good result for the film and it suggests it will top predictions, especially if moviegoers like it as much as critics did. Additionally, A24 said the advertising budget was “nominal” and that it was focused on the planned VOD / home market release in three months. It could break even by this time next week.
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February 19th, 2016
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The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies.
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February 12th, 2016
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There are three wide releases next week. Of those three, I think it is safe to say The Witch has the weakest box office potential. However, there could be a close race between Race and Risen. Furthermore, both films lend themselves to contest names. (Race to the Top vs. Rise to the Top.) However, faith-based films tend to be too unpredictable, so we are going with Race as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Race.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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