December 24th, 2018
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This year, Christmas Day lands on a Tuesday. Tuesday is the usual day for new DVD / Blu-ray releases. You can see why releasing a DVD / Blu-ray on Christmas Day is a bad idea, so it should come as no surprise that there are almost no releases worth talking about. The only “big” release of the week is White Boy Rick and on an average week, that would be relegated to the Secondary Blu-ray list. The biggest release on this week’s list is The Predator, but that’s because the screener arrived a week late.
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September 24th, 2018
As expected, The House with a Clock in its Walls topped the chart over the weekend. It was able to open faster than expected with $26.61 million. The other three films combined earned a fraction of that and A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. This caused the overall box office to fall 16% from last weekend to just $90 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a terrible margin. 2018 still has a massive 9.1% / $720 million lead over 2017 at $8.63 billion to $7.91 billion, so there’s no need to panic just yet.
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September 18th, 2018
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The Predator earned top spot on the weekend box office chart with $24.63 million. However, the best new release was arguably A Simple Favor with $16.01 million, as it is the only film that will match its production budget at the domestic box office. On the other hand, White Boy Rick struggled and will likely not pay for its $30 million price-tag any time soon, while Unbroken: Path to Redemption bombed. Overall, the weekend box office was $107 million, 12% lower than last weekend. It was also down from this weekend last year, but only by 3.5%. That’s better than expected at the beginning of the month and that’s great news for 2018. Granted, its lead over 2017 went down, but it still has a 9.6% / $740 million lead with $8.50 billion compared to $7.76 billion in 2017. It would take something incredible to happen to lose this entire lead by the end of the year.
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September 16th, 2018
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This isn’t a great weekend at the box office, as three of the four new releases are missing expectations, according to studio Sunday morning estimates, as well as the biggest holdover. The Predator will come out on top with $24.0 million over the weekend, but, while that’s not bad for a September release, there’s not a lot to be excited about either. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest short legs. It is way too early to tell how it will perform internationally, but it only managed fourth place in South Korea with a total opening of $1.2 million on 572 screens. That’s not good and the film needs to be a major hit outside of the domestic market if it is to break even any time soon.
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September 15th, 2018
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The Predator missed expectations by a small margin with $10.45 million on Friday. It should earn about $26 million over the full weekend, which is below average for the franchise, if you take inflation into account. That’s close enough to our $28 million prediction that I’m satisfied. However, the film cost $88 million to make, so it needed a lot more than this to be a real financial success. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only earned C plus from CinemaScore, so it likely won’t have good legs. As for why this film isn’t connecting with audiences, there appears to have been a lot of studio interference. That rarely helps the final product.
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September 14th, 2018
The Predator started its box office run with $2.5 million during its Thursday previews. We can’t use any of the other films in the franchise as comparisons, because they opened way too long ago. We could use The Nun, which opened with $5.4 million last week and went on to earn nearly 10 times that during its opening weekend. This film should have slightly better legs, as it has slightly better reviews and action films tend to having slightly longer legs than horror films do. That said, our prediction of $28 million seems like a safe bet at this point.
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September 13th, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this weekend, which is one more than expected. Of these, only one movie, The Predator, has a real shot at top spot. Meanwhile, A Simple Favor is the only one of the four that is earning good reviews. White Boy Rick is opening truly wide, which is a bit of a surprise. Unbroken: Path to Redemption is the sequel to Unbroken, which earned over $100 million. No one is talking about this movie earning $100 million. This weekend last year, It remained on top with just a hair over $60 million. However, last year’s depth was really bad, so while I expect 2018 to lose in the year-over-year comparison, I don’t think it will be a major loss.
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September 1st, 2018
Overall, August was a little better than expected. Granted, there were no monster hits, but Warner Bros. had two $100 million hits in The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians. Meanwhile, Christopher Robin will come close enough to that milestone to be a hit. This allowed 2018 to stretch its lead over 2017 by over $700 million. Will that lead grow in September? Nope. Not even close. There are three major problems that will hurt September’s box office. Firstly, there are a lot of films that may or may not open wide. Secondly, there are no films opening this month that have a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million. Finally... It. It destroyed records last September, earning more during its opening weekend than any film opening this month will earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has such an enormous lead that even with It, 2018 should remain ahead of 2107 by $500 million at the end of the month.
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July 20th, 2018
Real-life drama starring Richie Merritt and Matthew McConaughey opens September 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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