Home Market Releases for April 26th, 2016

April 26th, 2016

We are in Q2, which is historically the slowest time of the year on the home market. The last of the monster Christmas hits were released weeks ago and none of the yearly year hits have come out yet. Ironically, the biggest release of the week is actually a Christmas film, Krampus, and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is a contender for Pick of the Week. (It is admittedly a slow week.) Its two biggest competitors are both foreign-language films: Phoenix: Criterion Collection - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray and Son of Saul - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. Son of Saul won the Oscar this year for Best Foreign-Language Film, but I'm going with Phoenix instead. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Kung Fu Wins with $41.28 million lifting Box Office Along the Way

February 2nd, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it. More...

Weekend Estimates: The Revenant wins chilly weekend with $16 million

January 24th, 2016

With the weekend jam-packed with new releases and Oscar hopefuls, and thrown off course by Winter Storm Jonas, it’s perhaps fitting that a tale of battles against the elements will come out on top. The Revenant will be down 50% from last weekend’s MLK Holiday-inflated number to $16 million, but that will be enough to leapfrog over Ride Along 2 and into first place. The Leonardo DiCaprio film, which remains a good bet for a fistful of Oscars, although perhaps not the major prize, has $119 million to date. Also overtaking Ride Along 2 to move back to second place is Star Wars: The Force Awakens with $14.26 million for a weekend and $879.3 million in total to date. With $1.06 billion internationally, the film is drawing close to becoming the third film to earn over $2 billion worldwide. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Fifth Wave Open in the Top Five?

January 21st, 2016

Three wide releases are coming out this week, all of which are expected to earn similar openings. None of which are expected to compete for the top five. The 5th Wave is the latest Young Adult Adaptation and as I'm writing this at about 10 am on Thursday, it is still the only new release with any reviews. Dirty Grandpa is the widest release of the week, but with no reviews, it is hard to judge how well it will do. Finally there's The Boy. If it can match The Forest, I'm sure STX Entertainment will be happy. The weakness in the new releases doesn't mean we won't have a new number one film, as The Revenant seems poised to climb to first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, American Sniper remained dominant with nearly $65 million. It's a near certainty that all three new releases won't make that much this year. There's a chance the top five combined won't make that much this year. 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Contest: Free Ride: Winning Announcement

January 21st, 2016

The winners of our Free Ride contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ride Along 2 opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: The Lady in the Van tops Yearly Chart with $18,066

January 20th, 2016

I know it is early in the year, but The Lady in the Van has set the record for best opening theater average for 2016 at $18,066. That record likely won't last very long, but it is good for this time of year. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Ride Along 2, which earned an average of $11,100. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Ride Along Rides the Wave to the Top with $41.01 Million

January 20th, 2016

As anticipated, Ride Along 2 earned first place over the long weekend earning more than it cost to make in just four days. The other two wide releases were less successful. Despite costing more to make, 13 Hours earned less than half Ride Along 2 opened with, while the less said about Norm of the North, the better. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place over the three-day weekend, but it rose to first place on the daily chart on Monday. It is not done yet. The overall, the three-day weekend was up 4.2% from last weekend; however, it was down 18% from last year. This is not surprising, as this weekend last year, American Sniper set the record for biggest January weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $693 million, giving 2016 an early lead over 2015. That lead was cut to 5.9% or $39 million and will likely be cut further next weekend. Hopefully it won't be entirely gone. More...

Friday Estimates: Riding High...ish

January 16th, 2016

As expected, Ride Along 2 earned first place on Friday, but it was a little softer than anticipated. The film earned $12 million during its first day of release, which is 17% less than Ride Along opened with back in 2014. Because this film is a sequel and the reviews are so weak, it will likely have a smaller internal multiplier. Additionally, Ride Along 2 cost more than the first film cost to make. That said, it still only cost $40 million and it looks like it will earn close to that much during its four-day weekend. There will be a part three of the franchise. They are just too profitable not to make another. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Riding High - Updated

January 15th, 2016

Ride Along 2 started its box office run with $1.26 million in Thursday night previews. This is better than the $1.06 million in previews Ride Along managed and that's a good sign for its weekend total. Maybe it will top the original with $50 million over four days. Or maybe the reviews will kill its legs. We will know more tomorrow when Friday's estimates come in. More...

Weekend Predictions: Along for the Ride

January 14th, 2016

Star Wars: The Force Awakens will finally relinquish its hold on the weekend box office and there are three new releases looking to grab as much of the box office share as they can. Ride Along 2 is the film with the best shot at first place, assuming its reviews don't kill it. The Revenant should have one of the best week-to-week declines, thanks in part to its Awards Season success. 13 Hours looks like a solid top-five film, but not a major hit, while Norm of the North is just hoping not to embarrass itself. This weekend last year, American Sniper expanded wide and set the record for biggest January weekend. That record fell earlier this year, but that's not a lot of comfort for this weekend, as all three new releases combined won't match American Sniper's haul. 2016's winning streak will end at two weeks. Hopefully the upcoming losing streak won't be much longer than that. More...

Contest: Don't Go Into the Woods: Winning Announcement

January 14th, 2016

The winners of our Don't Go Into the Woods contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Forest opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Free Ride

January 7th, 2016

It is a busier weekend next week with three wide releases. However, Ride Along 2 will likely earn more than 13 Hours and Norm of the North will earn combined. As such, it is the clear choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ride Along 2.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two DVDs.

Next weekend is a long weekend, but remember, we only are concerned with the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office number.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Preview: January

January 1st, 2016

2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth. More...