October 21st, 2014
Like last week, it is not a very busy week on the home market. However, unlike last week, there are not a lot of prime releases. The second to last DVD / Blu-ray release for Mad Men tops the list. Well, it is the second to last release, until the Full Season Megaset comes out. The biggest theatrical release is The Purge: Anarchy, which was a huge hit, given its budget, but not a monster hit. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, it's Mad Men and Snowpiercer on DVD or Blu-ray. In the end I had to flip a coin to decide. I came up heads. Then I realized I should probably decide which movie is heads before I flipped the coin. Let's try that again. Snowpiercer is the Pick of the Week.
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August 6th, 2014
Guardians of the Galaxy opened in first place internationally with $67.4 million in 42 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by Russia with $12.90 million on 2,097 screens and the U.K. with $10.70 million on 554 screens. It also earned first place in Brazil with $5.27 million on 472 screens. It wasn't as strong in South Korea with $3.83 million on 575 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.78 million. There was a massive local release in that market, so that partially explains that result. The film also opened in second place in Australia with $2.15 million on 244 screens, but this was just the film's previews.
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July 29th, 2014
There were two truly wide new releases that came out this weekend, and both of them did very well. In fact, Hercules placed second and earned as much as some people predicted Lucy would earn while placing first. Lucy topped the high end of expectations and unless its legs are really short, will easily become a surprise $100 million hit. This helped the overall box office rise 3.7% from last weekend up to $155 million, which is a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately, the weekend total was still down 10% from this weekend last year, meaning the 2014 slump continues. It has gotten so bad that 2014 is now behind 2013 by 6.1% at $6.01 billion to $6.40 billion. Next weekend should finally end the slump, but it might be too late to save 2014 overall.
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July 25th, 2014
There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week, sort of. The first of these, if we go alphabetically is And So It Goes, but it is only opening in 1,762 theaters, which is not quite enough to be wide and likely not enough to reach the top five. Hercules and Lucy are both opening truly wide and both are earning reviews that are currently in the overall positive level. (Although it is close enough that it might change.) Lucy will very likely come out on top, while Hercules should earn second place. There's one more film of note, The Fluffy Movie, which is opening in 400 theaters and has a slim chance at making the top ten. This weekend last year saw the release of The Wolverine, which opened with $53.11 million. There's a chance the top two films won't make that much this year. In other words, 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again.
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July 23rd, 2014
The winners of our Total Anarchy contest were determined and they are...
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July 23rd, 2014
The biggest film on the per theater chart this weekend was Boyhood, for the second weekend in a row. It expanded from 5 to 34 theaters, but its average fell just 56% to $34,418. That's fantastic. It has already earned a measure of mainstream success, while it has its eyes on Chef for best limited release for the summer. Second place went to There's No Place Like Utopia with $30,710 in one theater. This is a great start, but there are still no reviews, so I think it will have short legs. A Five Star Life and Mood Indigo were relatively close with averages of $15,996 and $13,256 respectively. The only wide release to reach the $10,000 club was The Purge: Anarchy, which earned an average of $10,626.
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July 22nd, 2014
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained on top of the box office chart with a healthy lead over The Purge: Anarchy. Unfortunately, the other two wide releases, Planes: Fire and Rescue and Sex Tape were anything but healthy and that led to a weakening box office. It fell less than 1% from last weekend to $149 million. This was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is now 5.6% or $340 million behind last year's pace at $5.79 billion to $6.13 billion. I think with summer wrapping up, it is close to the time to panic.
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July 20th, 2014
Only one new release really fired at the box office this weekend, and even that film, The Purge: Anarchy couldn’t topple Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from top spot on the chart. Apes will be down 50% from last weekend, to $36 million, and its cume is hovering around $140 million so far. It seems destined to be another film that ends up around $200 million this Summer. Anarchy will open with about $28.4 million, according to Universal, for a theater average of almost exactly $10,000. That’s stellar business for a film costing $9 million to make, although it is off a bit from the $34 million open enjoyed by last year’s surprise hit. A third installment seems inevitable (and a direct-to-video Part 4 is a good bet).
The weekend’s other two wide releases were well behind the pace.
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July 17th, 2014
There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week looking to dethrone Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. The Purge: Anarchy is the most likely film to come out on top, but the original didn't win over many moviegoers. It opened big, but collapsed very quickly after that. Planes didn't perform much better with moviegoers, but there hasn't been an animated family film released wide since How to Train Your Dragon 2, so Planes: Fire and Rescue could benefit from the lack of competition. Sex Tape is the only non-sequel opening wide this week and that could help it do well. Or the fact that it is not based on a previous movie could hurt it. There is one last film that might reach the top ten, Persecuted, which is opening in 700 theaters. It would only need a per theater average of just over $4,000 to reach the top ten, which is doable. This year, we should have four films that earn more than $20 million. Last year there were only three. However, last year, The Conjuring earned more than $40 million, a milestone no film this year will reach, while seven films earned more than $10 million. This year there will be only four films earning more than $10 million. Again, it looks like 2014 is going to get crushed at the box office.
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July 14th, 2014
As I mentioned previously, this week's contest was delayed due to legal reasons, the details of which I don't know. I also mentioned that the contest would be based on The Purge: Anarchy, not because I think it will finish in first place, but because we have prizes for that movie. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Purge: Anarchy. However, while there is only one wide release, there are three prizes to give away.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a The Purge: Anarchy prize pack consisting of The Purge: Anarchy promo T-shirt and a The Purge: Anarchy promo flashlight.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, to make up for the contest starting late.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2014
Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.
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