December 6th, 2013
Next week there are two wide releases, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry's A Madea Christmas. The Desolation of Smaug is clearly going to be the winner and it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.
On the other hand, there's no clear prize for this week's winner. We have something a little different this time around. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a random Blu-ray from the following list...
Just look at the app...
There are 21 possibly Blu-rays on that list, and the winner won't know which one they won till it arrives. I think this is kind of fun.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 5th, 2013
The winner of our FREEZE! contest was determined and it is...
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November 24th, 2013
Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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October 29th, 2013
The winner of our Born to be Bad contest was determined and it is...
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October 18th, 2013
Next week there are two wide releases, but let's be frank, only one of them has a real shot at first place. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa should finally end Gravity's reign on the box office charts and will likely crush The Counselor, the only other wide release of the week. It is the easy choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Pacific Rim on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 15th, 2013
The winner of our Over and Under the Sea contest was determined and it is...
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October 14th, 2013
It's a good week on the home market with two $100 million hits coming out: The Heat and Pacific Rim. I've heard good things about both films, but unfortunately, neither screener has arrived. Also, while we have two big release on top, there's not a lot of depth and we quickly run into releases that would be filler during a normal week. At the time I started this column, no new releases for the week had arrived on time, but at least that gave me a chance to get a bit caught up on some of the previous late arrivals. This list includes two contenders for Pick of the Week: White Collar: Season Four and Modern Family: Season Four on DVD or Blu-ray. Both are must haves, but the latter won out for Pick of the Week honors.
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September 4th, 2013
The Labor Day long weekend is over and pre-weekend predictions were spot on, at least when it came to the top-two films. One Direction: This is Us opened in first place on Friday, but by Sunday had fallen to fifth place, allowing Lee Daniels' The Butler to remain on top, if you go by the four-day weekend. There were a few surprises this weekend, including Instructions Not Included. I hoped it would do well, but I never imaged it would do this well. Overall the weekend was strong at $125 million over the three-day weekend, which was 14% more than last weekend. Over four days, the total box office was $160 million. This was 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2013 holds a 0.9% lead over 2012 at 7.44 billion to $7.37 billion.
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August 23rd, 2013
Elysium rushed to top spot with $24.04 million on 4,588 screens in 41 markets for an early total of $40.08 million. This week it opened in France with $4.16 million on 466 screens, which was enough for first place. It also debuted in first place in Australia ($3.38 million on 317 screens); and in Germany ($3.20 million on 584); and Spain ($3.04 million on 450). It was pushed into third place in Russia with $2.98 million on 976 screens for a total of $12.50 million after two weeks of release. It fell 58%, which is actually better than average for a sophomore film in Russia.
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August 15th, 2013
The Smurfs 2 rose to top spot with $35.57 million on 11,102 screens in 65 markets for a total of $111.01 million internationally. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it added $3.16 million on 1,075 screens over the weekend to its total, which now sits at $8.78 million. There is a virtual tie for biggest market overall with Russia and the U.K. sitting at $9.94 million and $9.87 million respectively. Getting to the century mark internationally so quickly is good news for the studio. That said, it is behind the first film in most markets and I don't think it will finish with a profit, at least not on its own. Perhaps merchandizing will push it into the black.
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August 8th, 2013
Pacific Rim earned first place over the weekend with $53.0 million in 58 markets for a total of $200.4 million internationally and $293.3 million worldwide. It has made more internationally than it cost to make, but it will still need a lot of help to break even. The film's biggest market over the weekend was China, where it debuted in first place with $45 million. Unfortunately for the film, while studios take about 60% of the box office numbers in the United States (it varies per film) they only get about 20% of the box office in China. Or to be more accurate, they will only get about 20% of the box office, once the sales tax dispute is settled. Right now, they are getting nothing.
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July 22nd, 2013
The weekend box office was mixed with two of the four wide releases matching predictions, Turbo and R.I.P.D.. There was one movie failing to reach expectations, Red 2. And finally there was one more beating nearly all predictions, The Conjuring. Fortunately, The Conjuring did so well that it made up for the weak films and helped the overall box grow to $195 million. Granted, that was within a rounding error of last weekend, but any growth is good news. There is also some bad news, as this was 16% lower than the same weekend last year, but since that was the weekend The Dark Knight Rises opened, this is actually better than expected. Year-to-date, 2013 has pulled in $6.12 billion. This is still lower than last year's pace ($6.16 billion), but it is close enough that it would only take one surprise weekend result to catch up. Earlier in the year, I thought 2013 was a lost cause. Now I'm much more optimistic.
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July 21st, 2013
This is a Summer packed with big-budget proto-franchise films, which makes it a risky season for the studios. Predictably enough, we've had some success stories among them, like Man of Steel and World War Z, and some disasters (with The Lone Ranger and Pacific Rim standing out). Overall, the batting average for these films is running around 50%, which makes it a particularly dicey proposition to have two of them opening in the same weekend.
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July 18th, 2013
There are four new releases coming out this week, but there is a wide range of predictions for some of these films. Turbo opened on Wednesday to mostly good reviews and some think it will earn first place over the weekend. Red 2's early reviews are weaker than anticipated, but it still has an impressive cast and could come out on top. The Conjuring is earning some of the best reviews of any wide release opening this summer. It is a horror film and those rarely open in first place in the summer, but the buzz is growing and it could be a surprise hit. Then there's R.I.P.D., which has bad buzz and no reviews. It will likely not make the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend The Dark Knight Rises opened and there's no chance 2013 will come out on top on the year-over-year comparison. In fact, the total box office this year might be lower than The Dark Knight Rises opening alone.
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July 16th, 2013
The winners of our Be Pacific contest were determined and they are...
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July 16th, 2013
Fruitvale Station earned top spot on the per theater chart with an outstanding average of $53,898 in seven theaters. This is the third best per theater average for the year, behind Spring Breakers and The Place Beyond the Pines. Last week's winner, The Way Way Back, slipped to second place with $14,201 in 79 theaters. Its theater count tripled and this average suggests it will expand a lot more before it is done. Crystal Fairy was right behind with an average of $12,526 in two theaters. There were three wide releases in the $10,000 club, led by Grown Ups 2 with an average of $11,890, while Pacific Rim was right behind with an average of $11,385. The overall box office leader, Despicable Me 2, rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,965.
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July 15th, 2013
There were two strong new releases this week, but Despicable Me 2 remained on top, even though it fell a little faster than expected. Grown Ups 2 was further evidence that bad reviews actually help Adam Sandler movies. Finally, Pacific Rim struggled, at least compared to its massive production budget. Overall, the total box office was $194 million, which is 15% lower than last weekend. However, last weekend was a holiday weekend, so this is a good hold. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 17% higher, which is a great result. Year-to-date, 2013 is still behind 2012, but by less than 1% at $5.81 billion to $5.86 billion. Unfortunately, next weekend 2013 will have to go against The Dark Knight Rises, so 2013 will likely lose a lot of ground.
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July 14th, 2013
A three-way battle for box office supremacy this weekend will be won by the reigning champ, Despicable Me 2, dealing a major blow to Warner Bros. potential franchise starter Pacific Rim, which will end up in 3rd place. The action movie is set to post around $38.3 million, in spite of generally good reviews and an A- CinemaScore, and will land behind Grown Ups 2, which has been panned by critics but will still gather $42.5 million. Despicable Me 2 takes the prize though, with a drop of around 46% to $44.75 million for the weekend and $229 million to date.
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July 11th, 2013
There are two wide releases coming out this week, Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim, and depending on who you talk to, either one has shot at first place. However, most agree that Despicable Me 2 will repeat as the box office champ. There is a chance all three films could top $40 million at the box office, which would be great news in the year-over-year comparison. This weekend last year, Ice Age: Continental Drift opened with $46.63 million. That's a fine start, but I think Despicable Me 2 will top that during its sophomore stint and give 2013 a clear victory over 2012.
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July 5th, 2013
Pacific Rim opens next week and it could be a huge hit, one of the biggest hits of the summer. Or is could crash and burn. There's a lot of uncertainty here. That does mean it is a great choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. ... Also, I get to use a really horrible pun for the title of the contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pacific Rim.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Kung Fu Panda: Legends of Awesomeness - Good Croc, Bad Croc on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Kung Fu Panda: Legends of Awesomeness - Good Croc, Bad Croc on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 1st, 2013
For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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