April 15th, 2014
It is a busy week on the home market with five films that either opened at least semi-wide or expanded semi-wide. However, unlike last week, there's no monster hit like The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug leading the way. In fact, most of the semi-wide or wide releases on this week's list were critical and box office disappointments. Only Philomena did well with critics. Fortunately, it did well enough that it is a contender for Pick of the Week without even considering the extras on the DVD or Blu-ray. There are a few other new releases that are noteworthy, but most of them are catalog Blu-ray releases. These include Touch of Evil on Blu-ray and Double Indemnity on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Touch of Evil, but I literally had to roll a dice to decide.
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April 13th, 2014
The Nut Job opened earlier this year and was a surprise hit more than doubling its production budget domestically. It did so well that a sequel is already in the works. Is this a good movie? Is it merely good enough for a kids movie? Or did it thrive because there wasn't a lot of competition when it opened?
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February 3rd, 2014
Super Bowl turned into a blow-out, but still earned a record television audience. This explains why the overall box office numbers were down compared to last weekend. That said, there were some films that did well, including Ride Along, which completed the threepeat and by this time next week with be at over $100 million. On the other hand, the new releases really struggled. That Awkward Moment only managed third place, while Labor Day barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Week-over-week, the overall box office fell 26% to $86 million. Compared to last year, the box office also fell, but by only 3%. That said, 2014 is still ahead of 2013 by 6% at $943 million to $887 million, so the market is still healthy.
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January 30th, 2014
It's the Super Bowl weekend, so needless to say, the new releases are looking rather weak. Why would any studio want to release a film against what is the largest single sporting event of the year? There are two wide releases coming out, but neither is expected to make much of an impact. That Awkward Moment is the bigger of the two wide releases, but its reviews are terrible. It should still earn first place, because there's no competition to speak of. Labor Day's reviews are slightly better and its target demographic has very little crossover appeal with the Super Bowl. Even so, most think it will miss the top five. This weekend last year, Warm Bodies earned first place with just over $20 million. If That Awkward Moment earns $20 million, I will be shocked. It might not earn too much more than half of that.
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January 27th, 2014
I, Frankenstein died at the box office, as it missed the top five entirely. This gave Ride Along an easy road to first place over the weekend. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five all matched expectations, or came within a rounding error of doing so. This helped the overall box office somewhat. It was still a post-holiday frame and the total box office fell 34% to $117 million, but it could have been worse. Compared to last year, the overall box office was 4% higher, which is good news early in the year. 2014 has extended its lead over 2013 to 9% at $823 million to $754 million.
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January 23rd, 2014
After a record-breaking weekend, it's a letdown this weekend. I, Frankenstein is the only wide release of the week and there's very little chance it will be a major hit at the box office. It might overtake Ride Along for top spot, but I wouldn't bet on it. Last year Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters was the biggest release of the week earning $19.69 million over the weekend, while it and Mama were the only two films to earn more than $10 million. We should have four films earning more than $10 million over the weekend, so 2014 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 21st, 2014
It was a record-breaking weekend with Ride Along earning the biggest January opening weekend and the biggest MLK long weekend. Needless to say, it crushed expectations. Additionally, The Nut Job overcame terrible reviews to earn a solid opening, at least according to estimates. Overall, the box office pulled in $176 million over the three-day weekend, which is 26% more than the three-day weekend last week and last year. Over the four-day weekend, the box office pulled in $211 million, or 28% more than last year's MLK long weekend. That's great news, as 2014 was below 2013's pace. In fact, after this weekend, 2014 has pulled ahead of 2013 by 8% at $671 million to $621 million.
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January 19th, 2014
What could have been a close run thing at the box office this weekend has turned into a romp to victory for Ride Along, with the comedy set to break Cloverfield's record for biggest opening weekend in January with estimated three-day $41.2 million. The performance is all the more impressive for being delivered from just 2,663 theaters, and marks Universal's third consecutive MLK weekend win, following Mama last year and Contraband in 2012. With the studio's holdover, Lone Survivor, holding on to second place with $23.2 million in its second weekend the other three wide openers range from 3rd to 6th place in the charts.
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January 17th, 2014
At the beginning of the month, I thought this weekend would be a close race between Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Ride Along. That might still be the case, but it is increasingly unlikely, as Jack Ryan's buzz hasn't kept pace with the buzz for Ride Along. Additionally, Jack Ryan has direct competition from Lone Survivor, which nearly set the January record last weekend and should remain potent this weekend. This weekend last year, Mama won the weekend with $28.40 million and I don't think Ride Along will top that. On the other hand, last year there were only three films that topped $10 million, while this year there could be as many as seven or eight. (All four wide releases have a shot at $10 million, but it is likely not all will get there. There are two holdovers that will earn more than $10 million. Finally, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street might get an Oscar bounce back to $10 million.) Even in the worst case scenario, four films will crack $10 million. 2014 should win for the first time in the week-over-week comparison.
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January 14th, 2014
As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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January 10th, 2014
Next weekend is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day and there are four wide releases trying to take advantage of the early year holiday. Granted, Devil's Due and The Nut Job will likely be a footnote at the box office. On the other hand, both Ride Along and Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit could be in a tight race for top spot for the month. While both films should do well, I think Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit has the advantage over the opening weekend. As such, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of The Ultimate Guide to the Presidents on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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