January 17th, 2013
Men in Black 3 led all new releases earning first place on the Blu-ray sales chart with 241,000 units / $6.75 million during its opening week of release. Its Blu-ray share was just under 40%, which is low for this type of release.
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January 17th, 2013
There were a quartet of new releases to reach the December 2nd edition of the DVD sales chart, but none of them were able to challenge for top spot. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax and Brave were in a battle for first place with the former winning if you go by units at 637,000 to 584,000. However, the latter wins in terms of revenue at $11.65 million to $8.09 million. Brave is still a little behind in terms of total units at 4.33 million to 4.75 million; however, after just three weeks of release, it has overtaken The Lorax's 17-week total revenue at $73.45 million to $72.32 million.
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November 26th, 2012
It's not a good week on the home market, but for different reasons than last week. There are five first-run releases coming out this week, which is actually very busy. However, it is a bad week, because I'm supposed to receive screeners for for four of those five films, but so far none of have arrived. At least with Men in Black 3, there's a few more days before it is officially late, as it doesn't come out till Friday. Men in Black 3 also made more at the box office than the rest of the first run releases made combined, so there will likely be a huge gap between the first and second best selling new-release of the week. As for the best releases for the week, ParaNorman is the only real contender for Pick of the Week. The Blu-ray Combo Pack is worth owning, but if you've made the leap to 3D, then the 3D Combo Pack is worth the extra money.
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September 17th, 2012
2012 started off so well that I keep thinking the box office will return to those glory days, or at the very least it will stop sucking. That didn't happen this weekend. Granted, the box office grew 28% from last weekend to $86 million. However, this is 15% lower than the same weekend last year and it is still one of the worst weekends of all time. Year-to-date, 2012 still leads 2011, but that lead has shrunk to just 3.0% at $7.80 billion to $7.58 billion. If things don't turn around very soon, 2012 will lose its lead in terms of tickets sold (currently just 1.8%) and its overall lead shortly after that. Since fewer people are watching movies in theaters, it means fewer people are seeing trailers, posters, etc. for upcoming films. Fewer people seeing trailers for upcoming films does often times result in fewer people seeing these upcoming movies. We need a true blockbuster to break out of this cycle.
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September 13th, 2012
Last weekend was a disaster. It was a disaster the likes we haven't seen in more than a decade, much, much longer if you take into account inflation. This weekend should be a lot stronger, as we have two significant wide releases, Finding Nemo and Resident Evil: Retribution, as well as a semi-wide release, Last Ounce of Courage. Both of the wide releases should top $20 million over the weekend, while there's a chance they could both top $30 million. Last year there were four wide releases that managed a combined $50 million or so. This year, the two wide releases could top that, but it will be close if they do. However, the holdovers are so much weaker than the top two wide releases that 2012 will end up losing again.
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September 10th, 2012
Yuck. The overall box office this past weekend was not only the worst of the year so far, but it was the worst we've seen in more than a decade. Not only did the box office have a decade of inflation, but also a decade of population growth, which makes this result even more depressing. The Possession was the only bright spot in the top ten. Both The Words and The Cold Light of Day missed the Mendoza Line during their opening weekend. Overall, the box office plummeted 35% to just $67 million. Compared to last year, the box office fell by 17%. It's a disaster. 2012 is still ahead of 2011 by 3.3% at $7.70 billion to $7.45 billion. Things will have to get better next weekend, so hopefully we will never have to think about this weekend again.
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September 6th, 2012
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the entire year at the box office. This certainly seems to be the case this year. There are two wide releases, or to be more accurate, one wide release, The Words, and one semi-wide release, The Cold Light of Day. Neither film is expected to top $10 million. The last time the number one film over the weekend earned less than $10,000,000 was way back in 2008 with the release of Bangkok Dangerous, which opened in the weekend after Labor Day. There is a slim chance The Words will earn less than Bangkok Dangerous did. This weekend last year wasn't actually pretty good with Contagion dominating the chart. There's almost no chance any film opening this weekend will match the $22.40 million that film earned. The top three films combined probably won't match that figure. 2012 will start the autumn with a pretty big fall.
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September 4th, 2012
There's good news and bad news for the Labor Day long weekend. Overall, the box office was a little stronger than predicted with The Possession having the second best Labor Day long weekend opening of all time. (Only Halloween had a stronger opening.) This helped the overall box office rise 7.0% from last weekend to $104 million. However, despite this performance, the overall weekend was softer than last year down 2.5% over the three-day portion of the weekend and 3.3% over the four-day portion of the weekend. Year-to-date, 2012 still maintains a lead of 2011 at $7.61 billion to $7.34 billion. The lead is down to 3.6% in terms of revenue and just 2.4% in terms of tickets sold. We might see a further drop in attendance, which would be a huge collapse after an incredibly strong spring and early summer.
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September 2nd, 2012
Labor Day weekend is traditionally the slowest holiday weekend at the box office, so it comes as no surprise that the overall chart looks fairly weak. However, Possession is set to produce a very credible box office number, with Lionsgate estimating $17.725 million through Sunday and comfortably over $20 million for the full 4-day frame. That's hardly blockbuster level, but is considerably better than consensus predictions coming in to the weekend. Another opener, Lawless, is well behind, with Weinstein predicting $9.7 million for the Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend. Far, far behind that is this weekend's other new wide release, The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure, which is headed for about $450,000 from 2,160 theaters and will end up in the record books for one of the poorest openings in history.
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August 30th, 2012
It's the Labor Day long weekend, a weekend that a lot of families like to spend outdoors, or on a last minute vacation before school starts. It is generally a bad time to release a film, but three films hope to outperform the historical averages for the weekend. I don't think it will work. The Possession could win the weekend, but Lawless also has a shot. The other wide release, The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure, doesn’t have a shot at top spot. It doesn't have a shot at the top ten. It does have a shot at breaking records, on the other hand. As for the holdovers, The Expendables has a shot at the threepeat, but that would be really bad news for the overall box office. Speaking of which, last year, none of the new wide releases were able to crack $10 million, which left The Help in first place. I don't think any film this year will top that film's weekend haul, but overall the depth is better this year and perhaps we can eke out a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 24th, 2012
Next week is the last weekend in August, and it really feels like it. There are three wide releases, which is one more than expected at the beginning of the month. (I never thought The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure would open in 2000 theaters.) Lawless will very likely be the best movie, but it is opening in only 2300 theaters and is opening on Wednesday. This leaves The Possession as the clear choice as the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Possession.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Hunger Games on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Freelancers on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2012
July was another bad month with five of the seven films missing expectations. Only one matched expectations, or came close enough to call it a victory, while another film is too close to call. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that margin did shrink last month, despite the performance of The Dark Knight Rises, which earned $300 million during the month. Looking ahead to August, there are fourteen films opening wide, maybe fifteen, making it the busiest month in a long time. Of those releases, five or six have a shot at $100 million, while none will get much beyond that point. Maybe The Bourne Legacy will be a surprise hit and match the average of its predecessors, but most analysts wouldn't be willing to bet money on that. By comparison, last August only had two films that topped $100 million, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help. I don't think any film opening this August will match those two films, but we have much better depth this time around. Hopefully we will be able to extend our lead this month, unlike the last two months.
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