March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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November 23rd, 2017
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, and normally franchise box sets as well, but this year none jump out as essential additions to the Holiday Gift guide. Worse still, 2017 has been awful at the box office with potential blockbuster after potential blockbuster getting savaged by critics and struggling at the box office. Additionally, some of the biggest and some of the best have been on the home market for nearly half a year, meaning nearly everyone who would want them, already own them. That doesn’t mean there are no films worth adding to this list, but the list is a little shorter than usual. On a side note, two of the films on this year’s list are from the MCU and it would have been three, but Thor: Ragnarok is still in theaters. If you know someone who loves the MCU, but has all of the movies, then check out this site, which has some more unique gift ideas. I specifically like the Spider-man Drone.
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July 18th, 2017
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Last week, The Fate of the Furious scared away all of the competition. This week, the competition is still scared, as there’s very little in the way of top notch releases. Kong: Skull Island is by far the biggest new release of the week, while the next two biggest are The Promise and Free Fire. As for the best releases of the week, The Expanse: Season Two is a contender, but ultimately the Pick of the Week goes to the Stalker Criterion Collection Blu-ray.
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May 19th, 2017
Alien: Covenant opened with $4.2 million in previews last night, which is about what we expected. Maybe it’s a bit higher that anticipated. In fact, it is a little better than the $3.7 million Kong managed. The film won’t have the same legs, as it is a sequel and those tend to be more front-loaded. Furthermore, its reviews have slipped to 72% positive, which isn’t good enough to truly help its legs. We predicted a little under $40 million, but now a little over $40 million seems more likely.
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April 13th, 2017
Ghost in the Shell rose to first place with $41.3 million in 57 markets for a two-week international total of $92.8 million. The film was aided by a first place debut in China. It earned $21.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $21.49 million. It also opened in Japan with $3.2 million over the weekend. The film’s international running tally is nearly triple its domestic one and that spread will only grow. This will help the studio somewhat; however, it would need to make over $250 million internationally to have any real shot at breaking even.
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April 5th, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast completed the threepeat earning first place on the international chart with $66.5 million in 55 markets for totals of $480.8 million internationally and $874.1 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did do really well in a number of mid-level markets. Malaysia was the best earning $2.4 million, which is the second best opening in that market this year. Kong: Skull Island earned $2.6 million during its debut there. The Netherlands managed $1.8 million over the weekend for a total opening of $2.3 million, which is the best opening of the year so far. Likewise, it had the best openings of 2017 in both New Zealand ($1.4 million over the weekend and $1.7 million including previews) and in Chile ($1.5 million / $1.6 million). It will soon become the first film of 2017 to reach $1 billion worldwide and the 14th film from Disney to reach that milestone.
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April 4th, 2017
The Boss Baby beat expectations and earned first place with $50.20 million over the weekend. The strong competition pushed Beauty and the Beast into second place, but it nearly hit $400 million and it is on pace for $500 million, so I wouldn’t feel too bad for the film. On the other hand, you can feel bad for Ghost in the Shell, because an opening of just $18.68 million on a $110 million production budget is a disaster. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last week reaching $169 million. Compared to last year, the box office rose 28%, which is very impressive. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $2.98 billion, putting it 6.1% or $170 million ahead of 2016’s pace. We are far enough into the year that a lead this big is significant. That doesn’t mean 2017 is guaranteed to come out ahead, but this is certainly reason to be optimistic.
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March 30th, 2017
Two new wide releases attempt to dethrone Beauty and the Beast this weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them doing it. Earlier this week, it looked like Ghost in the Shell was a potential $100 million hit. Then its reviews collapsed. The Boss Baby, on the other hand, started with terrible reviews, but its buzz is growing despite this. This weekend last year, the best new release was God’s Not Dead 2, which opened with $7.6 million, and 2017 is in an excellent position to gain ground as a result. Granted, the top film that weekend was Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice with over $50 million and no film this week will match that, but the top three films last year earned just over $80 million, while the top three films this year should earn more than $100 million.
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March 30th, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast remained in first place on the international chart with $119.2 million in 50 markets for totals of $373.3 million internationally and $692.3 million worldwide. The film had two major market openings this past weekend scoring first place in Australia with $10.02 million on 706 screens, including previews. It also topped the chart in France with $7.9 million over the weekend, $8.4 million including previews. Its biggest market overall was the U.K., where it added $15.41 million in 636 theaters over the weekend for a two-week total of $49.82 million. At the end of the weekend, Disney’s share of the worldwide box office was just over $300 million, so unless the movie cost more to advertise than it did to make, it has broken even. Furthermore, even if the film had no more major markets left to open in, it would be on pace to reach $1 billion to $1.1 billion worldwide. With Japan and a few more smaller markets left, it could top $1.2 billion.
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March 27th, 2017
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Our predictions for Beauty and the Beast was higher than average, but even we underestimated the film’s weekend box office numbers. It fell just 48% to $90.43 million, which was more than double the second place film, Power Rangers. This one-two punch helped the overall box office earn $202 million, but this was 23% lower than last weekend. It was also 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Granted, this weekend last year was the weekend Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuted, so a decline like this was expected. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $2.75 billion, putting it 6.7% or $170 million ahead of last year’s pace.
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March 24th, 2017
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Power Rangers easily dominated the other two new releases during Thursday previews earning $3.6 million. In fact, this is barely lower than the $3.7 million Kong: Skull Island earned just a couple of weeks ago. Does this mean Power Rangers will open with a similar amount, say $60 million? No. The film’s reviews are much weaker and the film has a much stronger Fanboy Effect. It does have a real shot at $40 million over the weekend, but our $37 million prediction seems like a safe bet at the moment. If the film is earning better legs, we will adjust this figure tomorrow.
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March 23rd, 2017
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There are three wide releases this week, but none of them have a shot at topping Beauty and the Beast at the box office. In fact, all three films combined won’t make as much as Beauty and the Beast does this weekend. Of the three wide releases, Power Rangers has the best chance of box office success and it does have a shot at $100 million domestically. Life could become a midlevel hit and since it likely cost a lot less to make, it could be a bigger financial success. Finally there’s CHiPs, which has gained no traction with audiences. It will likely miss the top five. This weekend last year, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened with a then March record of $166.01 million. Nothing playing this weekend will match that. Beauty and the Beast might not make half that. Fortunately, 2017 has a $100 million lead on 2016, so one bad weekend in the year-over-year comparison won’t do too much damage.
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March 22nd, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast dominated the international chart even more than it dominated the domestic one earning $180.0 million in 44 markets. The film’s worldwide opening was the second best for March, behind only Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice; however, BvS opened truly worldwide, while Beauty and the Beast only opened in about two thirds of the international market. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest single market was China, where it pulled in $44.72 million over the weekend, $45.01 million including Thursday’s previews. It was also a monster hit in the U.K., where it earned $24.37 million in 567 theaters, which was the biggest March opening of all time in that market. The next biggest market was South Korea with $10.68 million on 1,625 screens over the weekend and $11.88 million in total. It also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($11.6 million); Germany ($10.7 million), and Brazil ($10.4 million). At this point, getting to $1 billion worldwide seems like a safe bet, especially with openings in France, Australia, Japan, and other markets left to go. We will of course track its progress there.
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March 21st, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast was expected to break records during its opening weekend, but its final tally of $174.75 million is still impressive, even compared to the expectations. The rest of the box office wasn’t hurt as badly as one would predict given the explosive hit at the top and that helped the overall box office grow by 59% to $261 million. This is almost double what it was this weekend last year. More importantly, this was enough to put 2017 in the lead in the year-over-year comparison. At the end of the weekend, 2017 had earned $2.39 billion, compared to $2.30 billion for 2016. Granted, this is partially due to a misalignment of monster hits, as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened the following weekend last year. That said, I really don’t think 2017 will fall behind given its current $95 million lead.
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March 18th, 2017
As expected, Beauty and the Beast earned first place on Friday. Its performance was a little better than expected, with Disney’s movie earning $63.79 million. To put this into perspective, this is more than Kong: Skull Island earned during its opening weekend. There are some confusing elements to deal with. Firstly, the reviews improved to 71% positive, which is still lower than anticipated, but good enough to not hurt the film’s legs. Additionally, it earned a solid A from CinemaScore. Strangely, the demographics changed, with women representing 72% of Friday’s audiences. That’s up from just under 60% during Thursday’s previews and a lot of times it goes in the other direction. So what does this mean for the future? The film just needs an internal multiplier above 2.6 to become the biggest March opening of all time. That seems very likely at this point. In fact, anything less than $175 million will be seen as a little disappointing.
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March 17th, 2017
Beauty and the Beast was always expected to be the biggest hit of the month. Now the prevailing wisdom has the film becoming the biggest March opening of all time. Even if it doesn’t match the high end of expectations, it is widely expected to earn more than the entire box office did this weekend last year. On the downside, The Belko Experiment isn’t expected to open in the top five, in fact, it could miss the Mendoza Line. Furthermore, holdovers like Kong: Skull Island and Logan will take a beating at the box office. Overall, the news looks great and 2017 should actually get ahead of 2016 for the first time all year.
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March 16th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island opened in first place on the international chart with $85.1 million in 65 markets, which is more than $3 million higher than Sunday’s estimates. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $7.58 million in 567 theaters. It also did well in Mexico ($5.58 million); in Russia ($4.87 million on 1,283 screens); and in Australia ($3.55 million on 523). Impressively, the film broke the record for biggest opening in Vietnam with $2.2 million on 377 screens.
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March 16th, 2017
The winners of our King of Predictions contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kong: Skull Island’s opening weekend were...
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March 15th, 2017
Personal Shopper had the best theater average this past weekend earning an average of $19,794 in four theaters. The overall box office champ, Kong: Skull Island, earned $15,867. Raw was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,413 in two theaters. Meanwhile, The Sense of an Ending just missed the mark with an average of $9,923 in four theaters.
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March 14th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island dominated the box office earning $61.03 million over the weekend. This is much better than predicted and this if reports are true, this is because it was a huge hit with families. Skull Island’s success hurt Logan, which fell to second place with $38.11 million over the weekend. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend, but that’s still 22% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is even more impressive. Back-to-back wins for 2017 has cut 2016’s lead to 0.8% at just $17 million. If Beauty and the Beast does as well as some expect it to do, 2017 could take the lead by the end of this coming weekend.
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March 12th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island is reigning over movie theaters this weekend, with Warner Bros. predicting a $61 million opening for the monster movie. This is a franchise that’s been rebooted so many times that it’s meaningful to compare this outing’s opening with previous incarnations. And I’m pleased to report that this is the best ever weekend for a reboot of a King Kong movie, topping King Kong’s $50.1 million, and King Kong’s $7 million. The bad news is that this outing doesn’t look so great when adjusted for inflation. The 2005 King Kong opened with an inflation-adjusted $65 million, and the 1933 original went on to make an inflation-adjusted $366 million at the box office… a number that’s a very distant prospect this time. In fact, once adjusted for inflation, this will probably be the lowest-grossing film to start a King Kong franchise, and the only one to miss $200 million at the domestic box office.
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March 11th, 2017
Friday was a great day for Kong: Skull Island, as it pulled in $20.2 million. This is better than predicted and certainly better than its Thursday previews would indicate. It could be a sign of long legs in theaters. On the one hand, the film’s reviews are 78% positive, which is good for a special effects driven blockbuster like this, but not amazing. Additionally, its CinemaScore was only a B plus. That’s not bad, but it is also not great. It is right on the border between hurting and helping a film’s legs. It would take a serious collapse on Saturday for Skull Island to miss $50 million over the weekend, while more than $55 million is a real possibility. Let’s go with $53 million.
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March 10th, 2017
Kong: Skull Island is the only wide release of the week, so it is the only release that had previews last night. The results were… okay. The film earned $3.7 million, which is the third-best preview result for 2017 so far. However, it is a far cry from the $9.5 million Logan earned just last week. Granted, Logan was the latest installment of two franchises, so the Fanboy Effect was in full force, but Logan also earned better
reviews and that helped its legs. Kong’s number is slightly better than than $3.6 million Pacific Rim earned during its previews, but it is low enough that I think we should adjust our prediction for the weekend down to about $42 million. We will have a better idea where it will end up tomorrow once we have Friday’s estimates.
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March 9th, 2017
There’s only one new release this week, Kong: Skull Island, which should earn first place on the box office chart. Probably. Logan isn’t too far back as far as box office tracking and might repeat in first place. In order to do this, Logan would either have to hold on a lot better than most comic book movies do and / or Kong would have to miss expectations. This weekend last year, there were four wide releases; however, they only managed a little more than $35 million combined. Kong: Skull Island should top that with ease and that’s good news for 2017. Unfortunately, Zootopia earned more than $50 million and that will likely be out of reach for Kong, so 2017 will need to rely on its depth to win in the year-over-year competition. I’m optimistic that will happen.
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March 8th, 2017
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The winners of our The X-Factor contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions to Logan’s opening weekend were...
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March 7th, 2017
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The weekend belonged to Logan, as it opened with $88.41 million and easily earned first place. Second place went to Get Out, which held on far better than anticipated, while The Shack is on pace to become a midlevel hit. There was almost nothing but good news. Almost. Overall, the box office rose 53% from last weekend, earning $189 million. More importantly, the it was 16% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016; however, that gap was nearly cut in half from its peak just a couple of weeks ago. 2017 is now behind by 2.7% at $1.92 billion to $1.97 billion. If 2017 can put together a few more weeks like this, then it could climb into the lead before April begins. That is a big “if” and I would be satisfied with cutting the gap in half by the end of the month.
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March 6th, 2017
Big ape adventure with an ensemble cast led by Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson and John C. Reilly opens on Friday ... Full Movie Details.
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March 3rd, 2017
Next weekend, there is only one wide release: Kong: Skull Island. Unless something goes horribly wrong, it will open in first place. Because it is the only new release of the week, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Kong: Skull Island.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2017
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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November 18th, 2016
Big ape adventure with an ensemble cast led by Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson and John C. Reilly opens March 10, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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