Home Market Releases for August 2nd, 2016

August 3rd, 2016

It is the beginning of August, a.k.a., the beginning of TV on DVD season. While there are a few prominent releases in that category, the biggest release is Batman: The Killing Joke, which is still a hot mess, but this time on Blu-ray. There are plenty of smaller releases that are worth picking up, including April and the Extraordinary World. Its reviews are nearly 100% positive and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for July 19th, 2016

July 18th, 2016

This week, the home market is led by Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, at least in terms of box office dollars. It is far from the best in terms of reviews. That’s not to say there are no high quality releases this week. In fact, there are five Pick of the Week contenders, six if you include Belladonna Of Sadness, which came out last week, but the screener arrived late, so the review didn’t get published till the weekend. In the end, I went with To Have and Have Not on Blu-ray as Pick of the Week. However, Orphan Black: Season Four earns the seldom awarded Puck of the Week, as the best Canadian release. More...

Friday Estimates: Turtles Take Top Spot with $12.5 million

June 4th, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows bounced back from Thursday’s weak previews with $12.5 million on Friday. There was further good news, as the film’s CinemaScore was an A-, up nearly a full letter grade from the B its predecessor earned. This will be enough for first place over the weekend with $33 million. That’s not a good enough opening to get to $100 million, so the film will need to perform well internationally to break even any time soon. On the other hand, reports have the film performing better with kids than adults, so it could break even on merchandising alone. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Civil War's Opening Missed Mark, but still Tops Yearly Chart with $179 million

May 10th, 2016

The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Civil War have an Unruly Opening?

May 5th, 2016

According to Fandango, Captain America: Civil War has had the best prerelease sales of any comic book film and the second best overall, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It should come as no surprise that no other studio was willing to take a chance and go head-to-head with Civil War. However, it won't be the only film earning tens of millions of dollars this weekend. The Jungle Book will finally relinquish top spot, but I would be shocked if it didn't earn at least $20 million over the weekend. None of the rest of the box office will earn a fraction of that. Due to a misalignment in the calendar, the biggest new release from this weekend last year was Hot Pursuit, while The Avengers: Age of Ultron topped the chart with $77.75 million. Civil War should make more than that opening day. More...

Contest: Good Kitty: Winning Announcement

May 3rd, 2016

The winners of our Good Kitty contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Keanu opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: The Jungle Book wins Three-peat with $43.71 million

May 3rd, 2016

This past weekend was the weekend before the start of summer, so you knew the wide releases weren't going to be massive hits. However, I was still hoping for more than what we got. Fortunately, The Jungle Book did beat expectations earning first place with $43.71 million. The best of the new releases was Keanu, which only managed third place with $9.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 16% from last weekend to $108 million. The year-over-year comparison is devastating; however, that's because the same weekend last year was the first weekend of May when The Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted. Compared to last year, this weekend's box office was 54% lower. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has shrunk to 5.7% at $3.51 billion to $3.32 billion. Next weekend, 2016 should bounce back when Captain America: Civil War opens. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jungle Book Still Miles Ahead of Competition

May 1st, 2016

It’s another bloodbath at the box office this weekend, with the combined efforts of three new wide releases barely earning half of the third weekend’s gross for The Jungle Book. With Captain America: Civil War also posting over $200 million overseas this weekend, Disney’s reign of terror is just getting started. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases are as Quiet as a Purr

April 30th, 2016

The Jungle Book easily remained in first place on Friday’s box office chart, earning $10.25 million. That is down just 38% from last Friday and if the weekend as the same internal multiplier as last time, then we are looking at a $49 million weekend haul. That’s a lot more than we predicted and would push the film’s running tally well over $250 million. However, this seems overly bullish—I would expect a weekend total of a few million less. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Keanu Mews - Update

April 29th, 2016

Keanu earned $560,000 during its previews last night. This is hardly a roar, but it isn't bad either. Barbershop: The Next Cut earned $735,000 two weeks ago and if the two films have similar day-to-day growth, then Keanu will open with $15 million during the weekend. This is exactly in line with predictions and should be enough to make the studio happy. More...

Weekend Predictions: Kitten vs. Jungle Cat

April 28th, 2016

There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend. More...

Contest: Freeze Out: Winning Announcement

April 27th, 2016

The winners of our Freeze Out contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Huntsman: Winter's War opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Good Kitty

April 22nd, 2016

There are three wide releases coming out next week: Keanu, Mother's Day, and Ratchet and Clank. I'm not 100% sure which movie will come out on top, but I really, really hope its Keanu. So I'm going to pick it as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Keanu.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, maybe. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, potentially. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, most likely.

The Twist for the month of April is April Fools. One winner will get what I consider the ultimate April Fools prize... two previously reviewed movies... on HD-DVD!!! Yes, one winner will get two movies on a dead format. (Who knows... maybe they will be collector's items one day.)

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Preview: April

April 1st, 2016

March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad. More...