Weekend Predictions: Kitten vs. Jungle Cat
April 28, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend.
The Jungle Book should complete the three-peat earning just over $40 million over the weekend. This would put its running tally at $250 million, maybe. It will be really close but even if it just misses the mark, it will get there on Monday. Furthermore, even if Captain America: Civil War destroys its theater count next weekend, it will still have enough legs to get past $300 million with ease.
Keanu is about two friends, Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key, who go into gangland to get back a kitten that was kidnapped. It's a silly setup, but the reviews are excellent. Furthermore, Key and Peele do have an audience thanks to their TV show, which recently ended. The film has a shot at $20 million, which would be a huge win for them. Even a $15 million opening would be worth celebrating and that seems like a likely opening.
Mother's Day is the latest holiday movie from Garry Marshall. Valentine's Day was a huge hit, but New Year's Eve struggled, meanwhile, none of them has earned good reviews. Mother's Day will likely continue this decline. Maybe it will compete for second place, but third place with under $10 million seems more likely. Even Mother's Day, which happens next weekend, won't save this film's box office chances.
The Huntsman: Winter's War should be next with $9 million over the weekend. It is doing better internationally, but not enough to match Snow White and the Huntsman worldwide.
There should be a three-way race for fifth place between Barbershop: The Next Cut, Zootopia, and Ratchet and Clank. Barbershop: The Next Cut should earn fifth place with just under $6 million. It will hit $50 million before its box office run is over, likely by next weekend. Zootopia should earn just over $5 million, further cutting into Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice's lead.
Finally there's Ratchet and Clank a computer animated film based on a video game. You would think there would be more of these made, not in theaters, mind you, but on DVD. The voice cast has a lot of big names, but the reviews are weak. It's in a battle with Mother's Day for worst reviews of the weekend. There's not a lot of competition this weekend, so it has a shot at fifth place with $6 million, but seventh place with just under $5 million is more likely.
- Keanu comparisons
- Mother's Day comparisons
- Ratchet and Clank comparisons
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, The Huntsman: Winter’s War, The Jungle Book, Zootopia, Barbershop: The Next Cut, Ratchet and Clank, Keanu, Mother’s Day, Garry Marshall, Jordan Peele, Keegan-Michael Key