December 11th, 2014
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning, at three in the morning, because the people at Golden Globes are under the delusion that news announced at 3:00 a.m. is somehow more important if it is announced before anyone is awake. As for the actual nominations, like with the Independent Spirit Awards and the SAG nominations, Birdman led the way. It earned seven nominations, while Boyhood and The Imitation Game tied for second with five apiece. Starting to notice a pattern here? This could be a really dull Awards Season with very few surprises. On the other hand, predictable means less work for me. Plus, predictable probably means the Awards Season voters are making the right choices, as surprises usually mean someone made the wrong choice.
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December 10th, 2014
The winners of our Short Trip contest were determined and they are...
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December 2nd, 2014
It is a good week / bad week on the home market. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the biggest and possibly the best release of the week and the 3D Combo Pack is a Pick of the Week contender. However, there are several other contenders, including two where I'm still waiting for the screener: Legend of Korra: Book Three - Change on DVD or Blu-ray and Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Seven on Blu-ray. However, in the end I went with Mr. Smith Goes to Washington on Blu-ray.
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December 1st, 2014
The Hundred-Foot Journey came out in August and was counter-programming, to be generous. It opened in barely more than 2,000 theaters and only managed fourth place during its opening weekend. On the other hand, its multiplier was 4.94, which is incredible compared to the average wide release, while it ended up a solid midlevel hit. Obviously the word-of-mouth was strong, but now that it is on the home market, will those who missed it in theaters want to check it out? And will those who saw it in theaters want to pick it up?
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November 27th, 2014
Next weekend is the weekend after Thanksgiving weekend, which is historically one of the two worst weekends of the year to release a new film. (The other is the weekend after Labor Day.) This year, there is only one wide release, The Pyramid, which I'm not 100% sure is opening truly wide. Even so, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Pyramid.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Hundred-Foot Journey on DVD, I think. It might be on Blu-ray. I wasn't able to confirm which format it was and it's Thanksgiving, so they are closed till Monday. I will update the contest then with the format.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 26th, 2014
The winners of our Silent Knight contest were determined and they are...
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August 28th, 2014
It's Labor Day Weekend, which is historically the worst long weekend of the year. This year As Above, So Below and The November Man are trying to avoid bombing this weekend. It looks like As Above, So Below will be a middling hit thanks in part to its low production budget. On the other hand, The November Man only managed fifth place during its opening day and it will likely get worse over the weekend. This leaves Guardians of the Galaxy with an easy path to first place for the weekend, and coincidentally, an easy path for first place for the year so far. Labor Day last year was led by One Direction: This is Us and there's really no chance the new releases this year will do the same. 2014 does have better depth, but I don't think that will be enough to continue the winning streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 24th, 2014
Even though it is nine years since original movie opened with $29 million and topped a fairly lackluster April weekend, few predicted going into the Summer that Sin City: A Dame to Kill For would finish in 8th place on debut. In spite of little competition the neo-noir thriller will post about $6.5 million from 2,894 theaters, putting it in third place among the openers. Tearjerker If I Stay is the best new release this weekend, with an expected $16.35 million from 2,907 theaters, for a very respectable average of $5,600. It will be third overall behind Guardians of the Galaxy, which will pass $250 million today, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which falls to second place with $16.8 million this weekend and $145 million in total. With a little over $1 million separating the top three, it’s conceivable that the order could change when final results are reported on Monday.
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August 19th, 2014
Only one of the three wide releases this past weekend did reasonably well over the weekend. Despite earning reviews that were flirting with single-digits, Let's Be Cops was the best of the new releases this weekend earning an acceptable opening. On the other hand, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy held on well earning first and second places over the weekend. The overall box office plummeted from last weekend down 23% to $143 million, but this is still 2.5% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013, even though the gap shrunk a little bit at 4.5% or $6.75 billion to $7.07 billion.
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August 11th, 2014
Despite earning some of the worst reviews of the summer, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles easily won the race for the top of the box office chart unseating Guardians of the Galaxy, which earned some of the best reviews. The rest of the new releases were well back. Overall, the box office was down from last weekend, but by less than 0.5% to $185 million. Compared to last year, the box office was 16% higher, which is a great result. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013, but the deficit was down to 4.4% or $300 million at $6.52 billion to $6.82 billion.
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August 10th, 2014
The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles didn’t just overcome the bad guys in a movie this weekend. They also overcame almost universally-scathing reviews and an end-of-Summer release date to top the box office. With expectations going into the weekend ranging from the low 30s to $50 million or so, an opening that Paramount is projecting at $65 million as of Sunday morning is a triumph. Even with the prospect of steep declines in the weeks ahead, the film should hit $150 million domestically, and with international markets expected to be the film’s strong suit, a sequel or two are likely to follow. The weekend’s other openers have less rosy futures.
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August 7th, 2014
Yep. It's August alright. There are four wide releases coming out this week, the largest of which is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which is currently earning 17% positive reviews. It's not even the worst reviewed film of the weekend so far, as Into the Storm is a little worse. There are a couple of films that might earn overall positive reviews: The Hundred Foot Journey and Step Up All In. None of the new releases are on track to match Guardians of the Galaxy. In fact, all four combined won't make as much as Guardians of the Galaxy opened with last weekend. This weekend last year, there were also four wide releases, three of which earned more than $20 million. I don't think that will be true this year, but I think based on the strength of Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, 2014 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 1st, 2014
July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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