January 23rd, 2019
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The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
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January 4th, 2019
The Producers Guild of America announced their nominations in the theatrical categories today and there are some trends building. However, there are also some questions generated after these nominations were announced.
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December 12th, 2018
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The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. There’s not a lot of surprises on this week’s list. A Star is Born led the way with four nominations, while The Favourite was right behind with three.
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December 10th, 2018
A Simple Favor hits Video on Demand this week and the screener arrived early, so I figured it was a perfect time to review this movie. (Also, I might have as many as five films to review next week. I kind of messed up requesting screeners, so getting this done now will save me the stress next week.) Is it worth checking out on VOD? Or should you wait for the Blu-ray Combo Pack?
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December 6th, 2018
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
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November 20th, 2018
This Friday is Black Friday, one of the biggest shopping days of the year. However, while there will be tons of sales, DVDs and Blu-rays that come out on Tuesday tend not to be part of the sales, because they have only been out for a few days. Because of this, it is usually a slow week on the home market. This is certainly true this year, as there’s only one significant first-run release, Crazy Rich Asians (Buy from Amazon). On the positive side, it is a pick of the week contender. Its only competition for that title is the Criterion Collection release for Some Like it Hot (Buy from Amazon). It was close, but in the end I went with Crazy Rich Asians. On a side note, both are lucky they are in competition for Pick of the Week, as it was going to be K-ON Complete Collection Premium Box Set, but it got pushed back from this week till February. I pre-ordered it in July and I’ve been waiting a long, long time for this box set.
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November 19th, 2018
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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September 24th, 2018
As expected, The House with a Clock in its Walls topped the chart over the weekend. It was able to open faster than expected with $26.61 million. The other three films combined earned a fraction of that and A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the weekend. This caused the overall box office to fall 16% from last weekend to just $90 million. Worse still, this is 23% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a terrible margin. 2018 still has a massive 9.1% / $720 million lead over 2017 at $8.63 billion to $7.91 billion, so there’s no need to panic just yet.
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September 23rd, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls was the only new release to top expectations this weekend, and it is doing so with ease. The film will pull in a projected $26.85 million over the weekend, which is close to Goosebumps’s $28.87 million debut and is much better than predicted. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore suggest merely average legs, but this is still a great start for a film that cost $42 million to make. It is way too early to make a call on its international numbers, so I’m a little wary of calling this a financial hit just yet. It did open in first place in the Philippines with 602,000 in 195 theaters, but it only managed third place in Germany with $789,000 in 465.
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September 19th, 2018
There was a close three-way race for top spot on the international chart, but The Nun was able to retain first place with $34.1 million on 12,107 screens in 62 markets for totals of $144.8 million internationally and $229.9 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market of the weekend was Belgium, where it made $1.42 million on just 86 screens. This was easily enough to earn first place there and was the biggest opening for the franchise. The film’s biggest holdover was in Brazil with $3.5 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $12.6 million.
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September 18th, 2018
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The Predator earned top spot on the weekend box office chart with $24.63 million. However, the best new release was arguably A Simple Favor with $16.01 million, as it is the only film that will match its production budget at the domestic box office. On the other hand, White Boy Rick struggled and will likely not pay for its $30 million price-tag any time soon, while Unbroken: Path to Redemption bombed. Overall, the weekend box office was $107 million, 12% lower than last weekend. It was also down from this weekend last year, but only by 3.5%. That’s better than expected at the beginning of the month and that’s great news for 2018. Granted, its lead over 2017 went down, but it still has a 9.6% / $740 million lead with $8.50 billion compared to $7.76 billion in 2017. It would take something incredible to happen to lose this entire lead by the end of the year.
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September 15th, 2018
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The Predator missed expectations by a small margin with $10.45 million on Friday. It should earn about $26 million over the full weekend, which is below average for the franchise, if you take inflation into account. That’s close enough to our $28 million prediction that I’m satisfied. However, the film cost $88 million to make, so it needed a lot more than this to be a real financial success. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only earned C plus from CinemaScore, so it likely won’t have good legs. As for why this film isn’t connecting with audiences, there appears to have been a lot of studio interference. That rarely helps the final product.
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September 13th, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this weekend, which is one more than expected. Of these, only one movie, The Predator, has a real shot at top spot. Meanwhile, A Simple Favor is the only one of the four that is earning good reviews. White Boy Rick is opening truly wide, which is a bit of a surprise. Unbroken: Path to Redemption is the sequel to Unbroken, which earned over $100 million. No one is talking about this movie earning $100 million. This weekend last year, It remained on top with just a hair over $60 million. However, last year’s depth was really bad, so while I expect 2018 to lose in the year-over-year comparison, I don’t think it will be a major loss.
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September 11th, 2018
The Nun topped expectations with $53.81 million over the weekend. Peppermint was well back in second place with $13.42 million, which is an acceptable debut for this time of year. Crazy Rich Asians was in a close third place and overall the box office was quite strong. The total box office was $121 million, which is 23% better than last weekend. Granted, this is 26% lower than the same weekend last year. Normally a drop this severe would be troubling, but this isn’t a normal situation. Firstly, this weekend last year was the weekend It debuted and rewrote the record book. Secondly, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by 10% or $770 million at $8.36 billion to $7.59 billion. This means 2018’s gains during the weekdays almost made up for its losses over the weekend.
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September 9th, 2018
The Nun topped expectations by a sizable margin with $53.5 million during its opening weekend. This is easily the best opening in the franchise so far and the best opening for a Warner Bros. film this year. The film also got off to a fast start internationally with $77.5 million on 15,615 screens in 60 markets. Its best markets were Mexico ($10.7 million on 3,967 screens) and Indonesia ($7.7 million on 1,216). At this point, the film is almost guaranteed a massive profit, despite is awful reviews and its mere C from CinemaScore. Even if it earns less during the rest of its run than it opened with, which is too pessimistic, it will still be a major financial success. There’s no way the franchise will end any time soon.
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September 8th, 2018
The Nun is crushing expectations with a $22.37 million opening Friday haul. I wasn’t expecting it to top $20 million on Friday, so this is great news. On the other hand, its reviews have continued to fall and are now at just 29% positive. Meanwhile, it only managed a C from CinemaScore, which is the worst in the franchise by far. (The two Conjuring movies both earned A minus, while the two Annabelle movies each earned a B score.) That said, this isn’t terrible for a horror movie and even terrible legs won’t put a damper on this debut, so Warner Bros. must be ecstatic about this result.
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September 6th, 2018
It’s the weekend after Labor Day, which is historically one of the worst weekends of the year at the box office. However, that’s not the case this year, as The Nun is expected to be a major hit. In fact, it should have the best opening in the franchise so far. On the other hand, Peppermint will be happy with a second place debut. Finally, God Bless the Broken Road is opening semi-wide, but the box office lacks any real depth, so it could come close to the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend It destroyed the record book. There’s no way 2018 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but 2018 has such a large lead over 2017 that even a few embarrassing losses won’t put a serious dent into it’s advantage.
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September 5th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout rocketed into first place with $89.1 million in 65 theaters over the weekend for totals of $442.7 million internationally and $647.1 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $76.14 million over the weekend for a total opening of $77.64 million. It had to settle for second place in Italy with $2.22 million, as Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation remained in first place in that market. It won’t take long before this film takes over top spot in the franchise.
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September 5th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians came close enough to our predictions over the weekend that I’m willing to call it a victory. The only other film to earn more than $10 million over the three-date weekend was The Meg. This wasn’t enough to help the overall box office grow, but the overall box office only fell 3.6% when compared to last weekend earning $99 million. It is a little disappointing to drop below the $100 million mark, but it could have been much worse. Speaking of much worse, this weekend last year, the overall box office was just $76 million, meaning 2018 improved on the three-day mark by 29% and stretched its year-to-date lead. 2018 now sits 10.6% or $790 million ahead of 2017 at $8.22 billion to $7.43 million. The lead won’t remain this large for long, not with It’s opening on the horizon. That said, it would take a spectacular collapse for 2018 to completely lose this lead.
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September 3rd, 2018
We have some Monday morning updates for the weekend box office and as expected, Crazy Rich Asians continued to dominate at the box office. It earned $6.21 million on Monday for a four-day total of $28.31 million and a three-week total of $117.04 million. It became just the fourth film released by Warner Bros. this year to get to the century mark and it will quickly become the studio’s biggest hit of the year so far, as it will overtake Ocean’s 8 shortly.
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September 2nd, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians is just destroying the competition over the weekend and should pull in an estimated $22.24 million over the three days. We won’t have a Monday estimate from Warner Bros. until Monday, but I would imagine the four-day weekend would be about $28 million, giving the film a running tally of $117 million after 20 days of release. This is a little lower than our weekend prediction, but close enough that I’m calling it a victory. Internationally, the film made $10.4 million on 1,565 screens in 24 markets for an early total of $19.9 million. The film opened in Australia with $5.4 million on 447 screens, which is better than its opening here, relative to the size of the two markets.
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September 1st, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians will easily remain on top of the chart this weekend, as it earned $5.87 million on Friday. Depending on when you are reading this, it might have already crossed $100 million domestically, a milestone it will certainly reach by the end of business on Saturday. The film is on pace for $24 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four, matching our prediction perfectly.
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August 31st, 2018
The last weekend of summer is a slow weekend. There’s only one true wide release, Kin, and it’s not expected to open in the top five. Operation Finale is opening in just over 1,800 theaters, but it should open in the top five, even though it is a Wednesday release. Searching is expanding into 1,200 theaters this weekend and that should get it into the top ten. Meanwhile, Crazy Rich Asians should complete the threepeat without any real competition. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million.
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August 28th, 2018
Summer officially ends next weekend with Labor Day, but Crazy Rich Asians is keeping the summer going with a sophomore stint of $24.80 million over the weekend. This is nearly twice as much as the second place film, The Meg. Meanwhile, the only true wide release of the week, The Happytime Murders, missed low end expectations with $9.53 million. The overall box office is down 21% from last weekend to just $103 million. That’s a sharp decline, but not uncommon for this time of year. More importantly, it was 49% more than the same weekend last year. That’s not as impressive as it seems, as this weekend last year one of the worst weekends in the past decade. Year-to-date, 2018 extended its lead to 10.1% or $740 million at $8.05 billion to $7.19 billion. On the down side, it won’t be long before 2017 really starts to eat into that lead.
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August 26th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians led the way over the weekend with $25.01 million for a two-week total of $76.82 million. This is way more than expected and actually in line with our opening weekend prediction. Its sophomore stint decline was just a 6% from its opening three-day weekend; it’s just a 29% decline from its opening five-day weekend. On the downside, this is such an amazing hold that it is hard for analysts to figure out where it will go from here. We can safely say it will continue to pull in millions of dollars for weeks to come, but we don’t know if it will soar past $150 million or not. If it has a more normal decline next week, we will be able to be more sure. Regardless of what it does over the rest of its domestic run or how well it performs internationally, it will be a massively profitable movie and one of Warner Bros.’ biggest hits of the year.
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August 25th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians is this year’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard, at least in terms of legs. The film fell just 4% from its opening Friday earning $7.0 million on this Friday. The film was a Wednesday opening, so it likely won’t perform better on Saturday compared to last weekend, but the film will still earn about $23 million over the weekend. The book Crazy Rich Asians is based on is the first in a trilogy and I would be amazed if Warner Bros. hasn’t already begun work on the next two installments.
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August 24th, 2018
The Happytime Murders only managed $950,000 during its Thursday previews. I was really expecting a little more than $1 million during previews. This is close enough that matching our $13 million prediction is still possible, but $12 million is more likely. Its also means Crazy Rich Asians will have no problem repeating on top of the box office chart. In fact, it appears to be headed for an amazing sophomore stint, but more on that tomorrow.
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August 23rd, 2018
Summer is winding down and there are only one and a half wide releases this week. The Happytime Murders is a high-concept, lowbrow comedy that is probably too out there to find an audience. Meanwhile, A.X.L. is opening in less than 2,000 theaters and tracking has it opening below the Mendoza Line. This does mean Crazy Rich Asians has a real shot at repeating on top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million. This year, we should have two or three films do the same and 2018 should easily win in the year-over-year chart.
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August 21st, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat the weekend estimates by more than $1 million, which is great news for the film’s future, as it suggests even better word-of-mouth. The rest of the new releases were well back, but their weakness didn’t sink the weekend box office, as it pulled in $129 million. This was still down 12% from last weekend, but more importantly, this was a stunning 35% higher than the same weekend last year, which helped extend 2018’s lead over 2017. 2018’s lead is now 9.6% or $690 million at $7.88 billion to $7.19 billion. I suspect we have likely nearly reached the peak this lead will be throughout the rest of the year, but it would take a major collapse for 2018 to not finish with a healthy victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 19th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat expectations and easily came out on top of the box office over the weekend. The film earned $25.24 million between Friday and Sunday, for a five-day opening of $34.00 million, which is amazing for a film that cost $30 million to make. It not only beat our original prediction, but its weekend estimates have grown since it debuted on Wednesday, which is a very good sign that the word-of-mouth is helping ticket sales. Its 92% positive reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore back up that explanation. With this opening, the film would have to have terrible legs and completely bomb internationally to not break even. Having terrible legs seems unlikely, but we will know more about that next weekend. As for its international numbers, the film hasn’t opened in any major international markets, so it is too soon to tell. It does debut in Australia before the end of the month, so that will be the film’s first big test.
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August 18th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians led the way on Friday with an impressive $7.26 million. Since it opened on Wednesday, it should have better legs than most new releases earn. Likewise, its reviews and its A from CinemaScore will also help its legs, putting it on pace for between $22 million and $23 million over the three-day weekend. Over four days, the film should make about $31 million, which is more than it cost to make. Even taking into account the studio’s share of the box office, Warner Bros. will cover its production budget before the end of the month, just on the its domestic numbers. Unless it really struggles internationally, it will break even before it reaches the home market. This might be enough to get more movies with predominantly Asian-American casts made in Hollywood.
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August 16th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians leads a group of three films, both in terms of buzz and in terms of reviews. It also opened with $5.01 million on Wednesday, so its already looking like a box office success. On the other hand, Mile 22 has the worst reviews of the week and its buzz is only mediocre. That said, its buzz is still louder than Alpha’s buzz is. On the other hand, Alpha’s reviews are good enough that if it doesn’t struggle too much during its opening weekend, then its word-of-mouth should help its legs. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $21.38 million. That’s probably more than any film opening this weekend will make. On the other hand, the only other film to earn more than $10 million last year was Annabelle: Creation, while we should have four films do the same this year. The depth should help 2018 earn an easy win.
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August 1st, 2018
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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July 28th, 2018
Romantic comedy starring Constance Wu and Henry Golding opens August 15 ... Full Movie Details.
Native New Yorker Rachel Chu accompanies her longtime boyfriend, Nick Young, to his best friend’s wedding in Singapore. Excited about visiting Asia for the first time but nervous about meeting Nick’s family, Rachel is unprepared to learn that Nick has neglected to mention a few key details about his life. It turns out that he is not only the scion of one of the country’s wealthiest families but also one of its most sought-after bachelors. Being on Nick’s arm puts a target on Rachel’s back, with jealous socialites and, worse, Nick’s own disapproving mother taking aim. And it soon becomes clear that while money can’t buy love, it can definitely complicate things.
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