Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office Relax Over Labor Day?
August 31, 2018
The last weekend of summer is a slow weekend. There’s only one true wide release, Kin, and it’s not expected to open in the top five. Operation Finale is opening in just over 1,800 theaters, but it should open in the top five, even though it is a Wednesday release. Searching is expanding into 1,200 theaters this weekend and that should get it into the top ten. Meanwhile, Crazy Rich Asians should complete the threepeat without any real competition. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million.
Labor Day long weekend is a difficult weekend to predict. There are some years, like last year, where a lot of the films get a big boost over the three-day weekend. There are other years, like the year before, or the year before that, where nearly everything in the top ten fell, albeit not as much as a non-holiday weekend would. On the other hand, Crazy Rich Asians only fell 6% last weekend, so it should remain steady this weekend with about $24 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four. This will blast the film past $100 million and put it on pace for more than $150 million domestically.
The Meg will be in a distant second place with just over $10 million over the three-day weekend and $14 million over four. The film is closing in on Warner Bros.’ net budget of $130 million, while it could reach $150 million domestically. If it does, it will likely break even during its initial push onto the home market, if not sooner.
Operation Finale opened in a close third place on Wednesday with $1.00 million, or about 10% behind The Meg. Wednesday releases tend to be hard to predict, because there are so few of them to compare to. This time around, we have a nearly perfect comparison, The Debt, which not only opened the Wednesday before Labor Day weekend, but is also about the hunt for a Nazi war criminal. However, it did open in 2011 and movies have become a little more front-loaded since then. Additionally, this film’s reviews are a little weaker, so it will probably have shorter legs as result. (It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, which isn’t bad.) An opening six-day debut of $12 million isn’t a bad start, for a film that is playing in just under 2,000 theaters.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout will remain in the top five yet another week, this time with close to $10 million over the four-day weekend. This will be enough to push it over the $200 million mark, which is reason for Paramount to celebrate. However, the lack of big competition is a significant reason why the film’s legs have been this long.
Christopher Robin should round out the top five with about $6 million over the four-day weekend.
Likewise, it appears Searching is going to do really well, for a film playing in 1,200 theaters. Its reviews are among the best we’ve seen this summer, while its opening weekend theater average was in the top ten for a limited release so far this year. On the other hand, 1,200 theaters is an awkward theater count to deal with and the tracking is all over the place. I’ve seen estimates as low as $3 million over four days to as high as $10 million over the same span. I’m going with $6 million over four days, which is enough to warrant further expansion, but probably not enough to expand truly wide. That said, it very likely didn’t cost a lot to make, so this should be enough to break even, eventually.
Finally there’s Kin, the only truly wide release of the week. Its reviews are just 31% positive and there are some who think it will miss the Mendoza Line over the three-day weekend. There are some who think it will miss the Mendoza Line over the four-day weekend. It is not looking good. Even the high end has it struggling to get to $6 million from Friday through Monday and $5 million over that period is as high a prediction as I’m willing to make.
- Operation Finale Comparisons
- Searching Comparisons
- Kin Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, Kin, Operation Finale, Searching