June 23rd, 2014
There's very little on the home market that stands out. 300: Rise of an Empire is the biggest movie coming out this week, but it is far from the best new release. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of new releases in competition for Pick of the Week. The A Hard Day's Night Criterion Collection Blu-ray is absolutely worth picking up, but there are no new extras for the Blu-ray, so that is a strike against it. Masters of Sex: Season One earned great reviews, but the extras on the DVD or the Blu-ray are only good. Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Six is loaded, but its price is just too high. In the end, I rolled a dice and Star Trek: The Next Generation came out on top, but it really is a close race.
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April 3rd, 2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier started its international run a week earlier than its domestic run and it started out really well. It earned first place with $75.2 million in 32 markets. This includes a number of major markets, led by the U.K. with $10.05 million on 535 screens. By comparison, the first Captain America made $14.75 million in the U.K., in total, including a $4.90 million start. It also cracked $10 million in South Korea with $8.89 million on 1,268 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.99 million. The first film made $3.81 million in South Korea in total. The Winter Soldier also opened in Mexico, earning $8.60 million on 2,681, which was a little bit above its predecessor opening. It is too soon to tell if it will reach $20 million, like The First Avenger did. The first film made $10.28 million in France in total, while this film opened with $6.06 million on 664 screens. In Germany, the film only managed $3.66 million on 626 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.99 million, compared to $4.81 million the original made in total. It had a near identical opening in Italy with $3.60 million on 648 screens over the weekend, for a total opening of $4.06 million. This is close to half of the $8.60 million the first film made in total in that market. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Spain with $2.93 million in 709 screens, which is just a little bit more than the $2.54 million the original opened with. As you can tell, The Winter Soldier topped The First Avenger's opening in every major market. It topped its predecessor's total in one major market. This is an amazing start and with several major markets left ahead of it, an international total of $300 million is a reasonable goal.
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April 1st, 2014
March is over and it ended on a bit of a down note. Noah topped expectations, but not every film managed to do the same. For instance, Sabotage barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Overall the box office was down less than $1 million, or 0.7%, when compared to last weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was down 5%, which isn't great, but given how strong 2014 has been, it is hardly a reason to panic. In fact, year-to-date, 2014 has a 6% lead over 2013 at $2.35 billion to $2.22 billion.
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March 26th, 2014
Need for Speed remained in first place on the international chart with $29.2 million in 55 markets for a two-week total of $96.1 million. This includes $10.5 million over the weekend in China, and $24.22 million for the full week. After two weeks of release, the film has $45.54 million in that one market. The film opened in first place in Germany with $2.91 million on 455 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.06 million. The film opens in Spain and France, among other markets, in April, while by the time it debuts in Japan, it might have covered its production budget internationally.
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March 25th, 2014
This weekend, there were two new wide releases at the box office. One was a big hit and the other struggled. Also, one was a hit with critics and one was not. Sadly, the critical miss was a box office hit with Divergent earning more than $50 million while Muppets Most Wanted failed to reach $20 million. Overall, the total box office this weekend was $141 million, which is 24% more than last weekend. It is also more than the same weekend last year, but by less than 2%. Year-to-date, 2014 is 8% ahead of 2013 at $2.16 billion to $2.01 billion.
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March 20th, 2014
Another week, another pair of wide releases. That's becoming a common thing to say. It is also a good thing to say, because too many movies tend to hurt all films involved and it is much better to have one big release and the counter-programing film. This week the big release is Divergent, which the studio is hoping will be the start of a new franchise. The box office tracking for the film looks good, even if the reviews do not. The counter-programing this week is Muppets Most Wanted, which is also opening with a saturation level theater count and it looks to do as well as The Muppets did. Last year there was also a strong one-two punch with The Croods topping Olympus has Fallen $43.64 million to $30.37 million. I'm not sure that Muppets Most Wanted will hold up its end of the bargain, but Divergent is poised for an opening of at least $50 million. It looks likes 2014 will again win over 2013.
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March 20th, 2014
Need for Speed performed a lot better internationally than it did domestically earning first place with $45.6 million in 40 markets. Unfortunately, $21.09 million was earned during its opening weekend in China. I say unfortunately, because studios only get about 20% of the box office haul in that market, compared to 40% in most other international markets and 60% domestically. It also earned first place in Russia with $5.84 million on 1,050 screens and in the U.K., with $3.35 million on 469. The surprise result came in Malaysia where it earned $1.89 million on 184 screens. On the other hand, the film had a trio of third place debuts in Australia ($1.38 million on 457 screens); Brazil ($1.29 on 335); and Italy ($1.07 million on 426). The film opens in Germany this weekend, while it doesn't open in Japan till June. It likely topped its production budget worldwide by Monday, so as long as its legs are not really short, it should break even sometime on the home market.
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March 18th, 2014
The weekend box office didn't shake out as expected with the new films failing to live up to the low end of predictions. Need for Speed didn't earn first place, in fact, it only managed third place. Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club barely managed fifth place and was the worst opening for Tyler Perry in his directing career. On the positive side, Mr. Peabody and Sherman held on better than expected allowing it to rise to first place. The overall box office sank compared to last weekend, down 21% to $114 million. This is still above last year's box office total by 6%. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in almost $2.00 billion, which is 11% ahead of 2013's pace.
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March 16th, 2014
An over-abundance of action movies this weekend split the market for moviegoers looking for such entertainment, allowing the animated family adventure Mr. Peabody and Sherman to sneak in and win the weekend. Peabody will be down a decent 34% from last weekend at $21.2 million, according to Fox, and will hit $63 million by the end of the weekend. Its legs will take it past 300: Rise of an Empire, which will be down 58% to $19.1 million for the weekend, and $78.4 million after two. Both films will top new release Need for Speed. Disney's debutant will post around $17.8 million for the weekend, a number undoubtedly squeezed by competition with 300 and Non-Stop, which will post $10.6 million in its third weekend, for $68.8 million in total.
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March 14th, 2014
Another week, another pair of wide releases. This time around, Need for Speed is competing with Tyler Perry's Single Mothers Club. Neither film is expected to be a huge hit, but Need for Speed has a better chance at earning first place. 300: Rise of an Empire does have a shot at repeating on top, but it could also collapse due to mixed reviews and direct competition. Last year, the box office was led by Oz the Great and Powerful with $41.25 million during its second weekend of release. No single film is going to come close to that figure this weekend. On the other hand, 2014 has better depth than 2013 had, so it could still come out on top.
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March 13th, 2014
300: Rise of an Empire dominated the international box office earning first place with $87.8 million on 14,478 screens in 58 markets during its opening weekend of release. The film earned first place in Russia with $8.43 million on 1,441 screens. It only managed second place in France, but with a still strong $6.08 million on 454 screens. It also had a string of first place finishes in a number of other major markets, including South Korea where it made $5.49 million on 720 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.42 million. Brazil was next with an opening of $5.64 million on 869 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.92 million, while Mexico was close behind with $5.47 million on 2,048. Germany took in $4.75 million on 580 screens over the weekend for a very healthy debut of $5.23 million. The U.K. earned a similar result with $4.62 million on 487, but that is one of the weaker results given the size of the market. Other major markets include Spain ($3.69 million on 710 screens); Italy ($3.33 million on 580); and Australia ($2.91 million on 467). The film has yet to open in China and Japan, but given its start in these markets, it hardly matters how well in does in those.
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March 12th, 2014
The Grand Budapest Hotel led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $202,792 in four theaters. This is the best per theater average this year and the best per theater average since Frozen's debut last year. It is also the best per theater average for a live action film of all time, beating The Master's old record of $147,262 in five theaters set in 2012. The film will clearly expand wide enough to earn a significant measure of mainstream success, if it doesn't expand truly wide. Particle Fever was next with an average of $14,323 in three theaters over the weekend, while its total since Wednesday is $49,869. The only wide release to top $10,000 on the per theater chart was 300: Rise of an Empire, which earned an average of $13,006. Interior. Leather Bar. was a surprise entrant in the $10,000 club earning $10,902 in one theater.
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March 11th, 2014
The box office weekend was a little stronger than expected with 300: Rise of an Empire earning $45 million while Mr. Peabody and Sherman earned $32 million. Overall the box office pulled in $143 million, which was 17% more than last weekend. It was also 2% more than the same weekend last year. Granted, that's not a lot. In fact, it is probably less than ticket price inflation. Then again, any win, even a close win, is amazing since we were up against Oz the Great and Powerful's massive opening last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has amassed $1.84 billion, putting it 11% ahead of 2013, which had earned $1.65 million by this point in the year. It won't be long till 2014 hits $2 billion and there are some pretty big hits coming out this summer to look forward to.
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March 9th, 2014
Two movies with very different audiences top this weekend's box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning, but the really eye-popping numbers are to be found lower down the rankings. 300: Rise of an Empire leads the charge with a very solid $45 million or so from 3,470 theaters. While that's a long way behind the $70.9 million earned by 300 on its opening weekend, it's an impressive showing for a film that hasn't been earning particularly strong reviews and doesn't share much of the cast, nor the director, from the original movie. In second place, Mr. Peabody & Sherman will land at around $32.5 million for Fox. Playing in 3,934 theaters, the family animated adventure will have a decent $8,361 theater average, and its legs over the next few weeks will be closely watched -- it'll need them for any chance of a sequel.
The main story for the weekend, however, lies lower in the chart.
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March 6th, 2014
There are two wide releases this week, 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman. Mr. Peabody and Sherman is opening in nearly 4,000 theaters and is earning better reviews, but 300: Rise of an Empire will likely open faster at the box office. The three holdovers in the top five, Non-Stop, Son of God, and The LEGO Movie, should also do well earning more than $10 million each over the weekend, so overall the box office should be strong. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Oz the Great and Powerful earned just shy of $80 million over the weekend. There's no way either new release will match that. In fact, it is likely both new releases combined won't match that. 2014's winning streak will end, but not to panic, it still has a large lead and while March doesn't look great, April should be better.
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March 1st, 2014
2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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February 28th, 2014
Next week there are two wide releases, 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman. Personally, I think both films have a shot at $100 million and since 300: Rise of an Empire is an action film and a sequel, it should start off faster, but decline quicker. On the other hand, there are some who think it will bomb as badly as the previous Swords and Sandals releases that have come out this year have. Mr. Peabody and Sherman has a much more stable level of expectations. Maybe it will finish a little above $100 million, maybe it will finish a little below. Almost no one thinks it will bomb completely. As such, I think it is the safer choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Mr. Peabody and Sherman.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win Breaking Amish: Season 1 on DVD, plus another random Reality TV release.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win two random Reality TV releases.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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