Weekend projections: Novocaine comes top on very quiet weekend

March 16, 2025

Novocaine

Novocaine will top the box office chart this weekend with a modest $8.7 million, the lowest total for a number one movie since Argylle’s remarkable second-weekend win with just $6.25 million in February last year. Things at the box office aren’t quite as bad as they were then, but this will be the third straight weekend where the combined gross for all movies playing in theaters barely creeps over $50 million.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):



As I said in Friday’s preview article, our model’s prediction for Novocaine was skewed high because the “Thursday” preview number reported by Paramount included grosses from last weekend’s special screenings. Adjusting for that, $10 million was the realistic goal for the movie as of Friday, and I think the best thing that can be said for it is that it will miss that target by a relatively small amount.

Black Bag is actually coming in right in line with the prediction, helped by having a slightly older target audience.

One notable entrant in the top 10 is The Last Supper. Pinnacle Peak didn’t share a theater count with us, so we weren’t able to make a prediction for the movie, but hitting $2.8 million from 1,575 theaters speaks to the enduring appeal of biblical adaptations. This take on the Easter story will have a couple of weeks to pull in theatrical audiences before The Chosen’s take arrives in theaters on March 27.

The general lull in theaters was meant to end next weekend, with Snow White aiming for a giant opening. That film has been mired in distracting controversy, however, and tracking has been worryingly soft over the past few weeks. The industry needs a hit, and it looks like Disney won’t deliver one this time.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,