December 11th, 2019
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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November 27th, 2019
It is an even worse week on the home market than it was last week. There are two Pick of the Week contenders, MST3K: The Gauntlet and RoboCop: Limited Edition Collector’s Set. The latter has far more extras, but it has also been released on the home market far too many times. It’s not even the first time it has come out on Blu-ray. It was still a very close competitoion, but in the end, MST3K won the title of Pick of the Week.
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August 27th, 2019
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Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year.
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August 20th, 2019
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It’s the dog days of summer and Good Boys was the only new release with an impressive debut of $21.40 million, while The Angry Birds Movie 2’s $16.09 million six-day debut isn’t a bad start for this time of year. There were a few holdovers to earn more than $10 million over the weekend, so the overall box office wasn’t a disaster, just a disappointment down 9.5% from last weekend to $119 million. More importantly, this is 7.7% lower the the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $7.35 billion, but this is 6.3% or $490 million behind last year’s pace. At this point, I don’t think it is possible for 2019 to catch up, but hopefully it can put together a strong last few months to at least save face. Additionally, the international box office is doing better, so worldwide it is close to a wash.
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August 18th, 2019
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Good Boys and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw are topping the weekend box office chart, so while the overall box office isn’t doing well, Universal is having a great weekend. Good Boys is leading the way with $21.0 million, which is not only better than our predictions, but better than Universal’s projections based on Friday’s estimates. It’s not all rosy, as the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore don’t suggest really long legs, while this is not the type of film to do well internationally. In fact, it is only pulling in $2.1 million during its opening weekend overseas, including $1.0 million in the U.K.
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August 17th, 2019
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Good Boys earned first place on the Friday chart with $8.31 million. Universal is projecting a $20.8 million opening weekend based on this start, which would give the film a rather low internal multiplier. This is due to its reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore, neither of which are bad, but they are not great either. It would still be the fastest opening for a comedy all year and this is the first R-rated comedy to top the chart since The Boss debuted more than three years ago. On the one hand, this is great news for Good Boys. On the other hand, what the hell happened to the genre? R-rated comedies used to regularly earn $100 million or more at the box office.
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August 16th, 2019
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We have preview numbers for a couple of new releases. Good Boys managed an impressive $2.1 million on Thursday, putting it in a great position to top our prediction by a substantial margin. I would love to get a pleasant surprise at the box office right now.
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August 15th, 2019
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Like last weekend, there are five wide releases coming out this weekend, and again, this is just too many. I can’t imagine all of them will find an audience. In fact, I would be less surprised if none of them really found an audience and Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw remained in first place, than if all of them found an audience. The Angry Birds Movie 2 is the biggest of the new releases, but it debuted on Tuesday, so its demand will be deflated by the weekend. Good Boys has deceptively good reviews, but the buzz isn’t where it should be. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a horror film entering a too-crowded market. Meanwhile, both Blinded By the Light and Where’d You Go, Bernadette? will be lucky to avoid the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians opened. It wasn’t a monster hit out of the gate, but it was a bigger hit than anything opening this weekend.
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August 1st, 2019
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July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year.
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December 19th, 2018
Drama starring Cate Blanchett opens March 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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