May 20th, 2020
I think it’s a great week on the home market for a few reasons, one of which is selfish. Amazon finally got its act together and upcoming releases are appearing on the site so I can pre-plan weeks, which makes my job easier. It also is making my wallet very scared, because there are a number of amazing releases coming out soon. This includes several new releases this week that are worth picking up like Buffaloed, Emma., Justice League Dark: Apokolips War, etc. and those aren’t even the contenders for Pick of the Week. That list is limited to The Good Place: The Complete Series Blu-ray and The Quintessential Quintuplets: Season 1. In the end I went with The Good Place, which I think will have a wider appeal.
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May 14th, 2020
Sony continues to have a good year, given the circumstances. They just chalked up a win on the DEG Watched at Home Chart for the third week in a row. However, this week it was Bloodshot that topped the chart by rocketing up the chart 11 places. Why the massive jump? It debuted on DVD / Blu-ray. We haven’t seen an increase that dramatic since we’ve been tracking this chart; however, this is also a film that was still in theaters when Covid-19 forced it into VOD early, so there’s mitigating circumstances.
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April 23rd, 2020
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on top of the chart on this week’s DEG Watched at Home Chart. In fact, the top five were nearly identical to the top five from last week, so we are going to spend some more time looking lower down the list.
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March 26th, 2020
With the COVID-19 outbreak causing mass shutdowns of non-essential businesses in a lot of places, theatrical releases are, for the most part, non-existent. However, the movie industry is trying to rapidly adapt to this and so are we. They are fast-tracking lots of theatrical releases to VOD and we will be expanding our coverage of VOD releases. Like last week, there are a lot of fast-tracked theatrical releases coming out this week, but we also have the more typical VOD premieres to talk about. Of the former category, Bad Boys for Life is clearly leading the way, although Birds of Prey is coming out on Friday rather than Tuesday, so it gets a jump on the action. Of the latter category, Banana Split is the film that I’m most interested in seeing. Sadly, there are so many major VOD releases this week that I fear it will slip between the cracks.
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March 23rd, 2020
The COVID-19 outbreak had basically ended the theatrical market with most theaters closed. Only drive-ins are showing any signs of life. Unfortunately, this is having an effect on the home market as well, some of it positive, some of it very negative. There is a rush to get movies from theaters to the home market and that’s helping improve the list this week. On the other hand, uncertainty with supply chains and stores being open means we could have a very short list next weekend, and next month. There are some big releases this week, including 1917, while Birds of Prey leads the VOD list. However, for Pick of the Week, I went with a much older film, Leave Her to Heaven, which is getting a Criterion Collection release this week.
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March 16th, 2020
The weekend broke a record, one that I thought would never be broken. Ticket price inflation means the smallest overall weekend record looked unbreakable, but this weekend only managed $53.50 million, although that number should be adjusted up as some indie films report numbers later in the week. This is down 47% from last weekend and down 61% from the same weekend last year. Only one film managed to top $10 million, Onward, while the total box office was less than what Captain Marvel earned this weekend last year. This is easily the worst weekend since I’ve been in the business, but I fear it will get worse before it gets better. Year-to-date is, to be blunt, a disaster. 2020 is already $100 million behind 2019’s pace and 2019 was not a good year at the box office. Furthermore, the $1.76 billion box office is only 195 million tickets sold, meaning we are on pace for the lowest ticket sales since the turn of the century.
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March 10th, 2020
It was a bad weekend at the box office. There’s really no way to spin this in a positive way. Onward opened just below the low end of predictions with just $39.12 million. The Way Back couldn’t make up the difference, as it only managed $8.17 million. The overall box office was up 2.0% from last weekend at just over $100 million. Sadly, this was 52% lower than the same weekend last year when Captain Marvel debuted. I don’t think anyone truly thought 2020 would win this weekend in the year-over-year competition. However, I don’t think many thought it would lose this badly. In fact, 2020 has slipped below 2019’s pace by 1.3% or $22 million at $1.68 billion to $1.70 billion. This is a disaster.
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March 8th, 2020
According to Disney, Onward will earn $40.0 million during its opening weekend. I strongly suspect they rounded up to get to that number, because opening below $40 million would have been a lot harder to spin in a positive way and they wanted to delay that admission one more day. Or maybe the final weekend number will be higher and I will have egg on my face. If it does match its estimates, it will still be on the lower end of expectations, but it will at least have a very healthy internal multiplier, meaning its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are helping its box office numbers. The film’s demographics were evenly split with 52% of the audience being female and 42% being general audiences vs. 58% families. Internationally, the film really struggled with just $28.0 million in 47 markets. The film opened in most major markets and this includes first place debut in the U.K. ($4.4 million); France ($3.3 million); and Mexico ($3.0 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in both Russia ($2.1 million) and Germany ($1.9 million). The film is going to need very long legs or a massive home market run to break even any time soon.
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March 7th, 2020
It looks like March will start slower than anticipated, as Onward only managed $12.1 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just under $40 million during its opening weekend. If it does miss $40 million by any real degree, then it will be Pixar’s worst wide opening since Toy Story. Even if it avoids that fate, it is on pace to have the worst three-day opening for a Pixar film since The Good Dinosaur, and that film opened on a Wednesday. I’m not sure how to explain this other than look at the COVID-19 outbreak. Granted, its reviews are strong, but well below average for the studio. Likewise, its CinemaScore is a mere A minus, which isn’t great for a family film. It’s still good, but not great, certainly better than its box office numbers would indicate.
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March 6th, 2020
Onward started its box office run with $2 million in previews on Thursday. By comparison, Sonic the Hedgehog earned $3 million during its previews last month. It is even lower than the $2.6 million Dumbo earned last year. Granted, this film earned better reviews than those two films earned, so hopefully that will result in better legs, but we won’t have any real evidence for that till tomorrow when Friday estimates show up. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic with regards to our predictions.
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March 6th, 2020
The first weekend of March should be much better than the last weekend of February was, as Onward is widely expected to be a much bigger hit than The Invisible Man was. Unfortunately, it is also widely expected to not be enough to compete with what Captain Marvel made this weekend last year. In fact, it isn’t expected to make as much during its opening weekend as Captain Marvel made during its opening day. 2020 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 1st, 2020
The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last March Captain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January.
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February 6th, 2020
Sports drama starring Ben Affleck opens March 6 ... Full Movie Details.
Jack Cunningham once had a life filled with promise. In high school, he was a basketball phenom with a full university scholarship, when suddenly, for reasons unknown, he walked away from the game, forfeiting his future. Now years later, Jack is spiraling down, triggered by an unspeakable loss, and drowning in the alcoholism that cost him his marriage and any hope for a better life. When he is asked to coach the basketball team at his alma mater, which has fallen far since his glory days, he reluctantly accepts, surprising no one more than himself. As the boys start to come together as a team and win, Jack may have finally found a reason to confront the demons that have derailed him. But will it be enough to fill the void, heal the deep wounds of his past, and set him on the road to redemption?
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