March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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March 4th, 2018
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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January 23rd, 2018
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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January 11th, 2018
The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
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December 19th, 2017
By this time next week, Christmas will be over. This resulted in a short list, but not a bad week. Dunkirk is the biggest new release of the week and it is award-worthy and a contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, The Amicus Collection, Stronger, A Town Called Panic: The Collection, and others are too. As for the best of the best, I went with The Tragically Hip: A National Celebration on DVD or Blu-ray.
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December 13th, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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December 11th, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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November 14th, 2017
This week’s winner on the theater average chart was Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, opening with an average of $80,542 in four theaters. This puts it in third place for the year, behind Lady Bird ($91,109) and The Big Sick ($84,315). Speaking of Lady Bird, the film earned an average $32,426 in 37 theaters, putting it in the top ten over the weekend. Bill Nye Science Guy is traveling the country and this week it was playing in one theater in Los Angeles earning $14,350. Thor: Ragnarok was right behind with an average of $13,990. The final film in the $10,000 club was Thelma, which earned $10,841 in one theater.
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November 1st, 2017
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The Square was the only film in the $10,000 club this past weekend. The latest from Ruben Ostlund earned an average of $18,558 in four theaters. This is a better opening than his last film, Force Majeure, which earned more than $1 million domestically. Hopefully this one will do the same.
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October 18th, 2017
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Human Flow earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $15,226 in three theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was last week’s winner, The Florida Project, with an average of $11,156 in 33 theaters.
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October 13th, 2017
The two biggest limited releases in terms of buzz, Breathe and Goodbye Christopher Robin, both failed to live up to expectations with critics and likely won’t have long legs at the box office. On the other hand, there are several documentaries worth checking out, like 78/52: Hitchcock’s Shower Scene, The Departure, Human Flow, and Wasted! The Story of Food Waste.
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October 11th, 2017
The Florida Project dominated the theater average chart earning over $150,000 in four theaters for an average of $39,208. This is easily the best new release of the week.
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October 10th, 2017
October started on a soft note with none of the new releases meeting expectations over the weekend. Blade Runner 2049 led the way with $32.75 million, which would have been fine, had the movie not cost $155 million to make. (That’s $185 million on the screen, $155 million cost for the studio, after you take into account tax breaks, etc.) Neither The Mountain Between Us, nor My Little Pony: The Movie made much of an impact at the box office, but at least neither of them bombed. The biggest news was It hitting $300 million. Overall, the box office did climb compared to last weekend, growing 16% to $105 million. This is just 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2017 is 5.1% or $440 million behind 2016 at $8.19 billion to $8.64 billion. We really needed a big win this weekend to put a dent in that number. Unless November and December are really big months, 2017 has already lost the year-over-year competition.
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October 8th, 2017
After It smashed the September weekend record a month ago, further proving that films can open huge at any time of the year, prospects looked great for the long-awaited sequel to Blade Runner. Its trailers had created positive buzz, the early reviews were very favorable, and there was little by way of competition. The bar it needed to cross to break the record, Gravity’s $55.8 million wasn’t even all that high. But something went wrong on the way to the multiplex.
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October 7th, 2017
I was bullish about Blade Runner 2049’s chances for a number of reasons. It was setting October records for pre-sales on a number of sites. Its reviews were over 90% positive. Its previews were a little stronger than expected, so everything was looking up. Then Friday happened. The film only pulled in $12.7 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. This is not a case of critics loved it, but the audiences didn’t, as it scored an A minus from CinemaScore. Perhaps not enough of the target audience even remembers the original Blade Runner and that’s why this movie is struggling. A lot of people thought it had a shot at $50 million this weekend but now $35 million is likely out of reach. $33 million is more likely at this point.
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October 5th, 2017
September ended on a slow note, but it looks like October will open fast. Blade Runner 2049 has been setting October pre-order records for a few sites, but it will also need strong walk-up sales in order to actually break the October weekend record, currently held by Gravity, with $55 million. I don’t think that’s likely, but at this point I would be shocked if it didn’t land in the top ten weekends for the month. The Mountain Between Us looks more and more like busted Oscar-bait. Its reviews have fallen from just over 70% positive to under 50% positive. As I started writing this, My Little Pony: The Movie still had no reviews, which is almost worse than bad reviews. (Reviews are starting to trickle in.) Finally there’s Victoria and Abdul, which is expanding. It isn’t expanding wide, or even semi-wide; however, it should still earn a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Girl on the Train opened with $24.54 million. Blade Runner 2049 could earn twice that. If 2017 does win in the year-over-year comparison, then it will be on the back of Blade Runner 2049.
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October 4th, 2017
Victoria and Abdul did something very few films manage to do, it repeated on top of the theater average chart. This past weekend, the film earned just over $1 million in 77 theaters for an average of $14,184. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Pearl Jam: Let’s Play Two, which earned an average of $10,635 in five theaters.
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October 1st, 2017
Warner Bros. is claiming a weekend win at the box office for It as of this morning, but whichever way you slice it, we have a threeway tie at the top of the chart, based on Sunday morning estimates. In fact, we might have a rare weekend where three different movies will top the daily chart. American Made took a lead on Friday with a $6.17 million opening day, It won on Saturday with around $7.9 million, and the eventual result for the weekend will depend on whether Kingsman: The Golden Circle wins on Sunday, and by how much. As of this morning, Kingsman is projected to make $17 million, American Made $17.02 million, and It (a slightly optimistic, for my money) $17.3 million. We’ll know the real winner on Monday morning, and It probably has a slight edge.
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October 1st, 2017
September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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September 27th, 2017
Victoria and Abdul earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $39,711 in four theaters. This is an excellent start and the movie has a lot of room to grow. Battle of the Sexes was playing in 21 theaters and earned an average of $24,545. It too has room to expand. It might even expand enough to get some Awards Season buzz. Unrest just managed a spot in the $10,000 club with $10,607 in one theater. That’s great for a documentary.
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September 24th, 2017
The fine line between mere popularity and capturing the zeitgeist (or going viral, to use a slightly more up-to-date term) is shown in this weekend’s box office results. Kingsman: The Golden Circle, a decently-reviewed sequel to a very popular franchise-starter, will pick up a very respectable $39 million this weekend. That’s a shade better than the original film made on its opening weekend, and a pretty satisfying result for all concerned. With good business expected overseas (we don’t have an official estimate yet), the film should cruise to profitability overall, and will most likely top $100 million domestically. It would also have counted as the fourth-best opening weekend in September, were it not for the behemoth zeitgeist-capturer, It.
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September 23rd, 2017
Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened on the low end of expectations with $15.33 million on Friday. This puts it on pace for just under $40 million over the full weekend. This is a little more than the $36.21 million the original managed back in 2015. This film has earned weaker reviews, but both films earned a B plus from CinemaScore. Still sequels tend to have shorter legs, so getting much past $100 million domestically will be difficult. This is not good news for a film that cost $104 million to make. I don’t think there will be a third film in the franchise, not unless it shows some growth internationally.
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September 22nd, 2017
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There are a trio of films on this week’s list that are Awards Season adjacent: Battle of the Sexes, Stronger, and Victoria and Abdul. All three earned some pre-release Awards Season buzz, but I’m not sure any of them will be serious contenders. Hopefully at least one of them will be a box office success.
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September 1st, 2017
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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August 7th, 2017
Historical drama starring Judi Dench and Ali Fazal, directed by Stephen Frears opens September 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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