June 27th, 2012
It was a nearly record-breaking week on the Blu-ray sales chart this week, which is very strange for this time of year. Granted, we had the last of the winter blockbusters, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, leading the new releases, but it was still better than expected. That film sold 1.77 million units generating $40.71 million for a for an opening week Blu-ray share of 54%.
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June 26th, 2012
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows dominated the new releases and easily took top spot on top of the DVD sales chart this week. It sold 1.52 million units and generated $22.71 million in revenue, which is substantially more than its predecessor made during its opening week, despite selling fewer tickets while in theaters. It's hard to explain that.
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June 11th, 2012
It's another strong week at the home market, at least for this time of year. Usually at this time of year we are dealing with January and February releases, which tend to be rather bad and are rarely big hits at the box office. However, we have the last of the winter blockbusters coming out this Tuesday. The Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows Blu-ray Combo Pack will be the best selling release of the week, and good enough to buy, but it is not Pick of the Week material. There were a couple others that came close, like Too Big to Fail on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and In Darkness on DVD or Blu-ray. In the end, I went with Shallow Grave's Criterion Collection Blu-ray as the pick of the week, although Harold and Maude's Criterion Collection Blu-ray and Gold Rush's Criterion Collection Blu-ray are really close behind.
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March 5th, 2012
Nearly everyone expected Doctor Seuss' The Lorax to top the box office chart this weekend, but very few people saw it doing this well. It opened so well that The Hunger Games could have trouble topping it for biggest hit of the month. The overall box office rose to $168 million, which was 26% above last week's pace, as well as the same weekend last year. And here I was worried the streak might end. Year-to-date, 2012 has now pulled in $1.82 million, which is 19% higher than last year's pace. Hopefully this winning streak will continue, and it will if The Lorax has strong legs.
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March 2nd, 2012
March begins with two wide releases, although there's no real suspense which one will lead the way at the box office. Doctor Seuss' The Lorax should have no trouble earning first place. The real question is whether or not it will top Rango, which opened with $38 million last year. Not everyone is convinced it will. The only other wide release is Project X, which has a range of expectations going from the low teens to the mid-twenties. If both films land in the high end of expectations, then 2012 should continue its winning streak, as this year has slightly better depth than last year.
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February 28th, 2012
The winners of our Apart from the Crowd contest were determined and they are...
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February 28th, 2012
There was a surprise winner at the box office this weekend as Act of Valor opened on the very high end of expectations while Good Deeds did the opposite. Overall, more films missed expectations than met them and this led to a 14% drop-off from last week. However, the total haul of $134 million was still 23% higher than the same weekend last year, which stretches the winning streak to eight weeks. Or to put it another way, every single weekend this year has been higher than the corresponding weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of last year's pace by 18% at $1.62 billion to $1.38 billion. There is some bad news going forward, as I don't think March 2012 is as strong as March 2011.
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February 26th, 2012
This weekend's box office charts will feature two hits and two misses, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Very much in the hit column, and leading the weekend overall, is Act of Valor, a reality-tinged actioner from Relativity that is set to open with around $24.7 million, which is on the high end of expectations. With a $13 million acquisition cost and $30 million committed to marketing, Relativity should see a profit from the film after several recent misses. In second place, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds will pick up around $16 million for the weekend, which is on the low side for Perry -- in fact it will most likely be his worst opening weekend ever -- but will still earn money in the end thanks to a low production and marketing budget.
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February 23rd, 2012
While this weekend is one of the most important weekends of the year for movies, it's not because of the films in theaters. Oscar weekend is generally not a good time to release a film, as a lot of fans will be distracted. To emphasize that, there are four films opening wide this weekend, but three of them are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters. Expectations for most films are in the mid teens, or lower, and there's a chance that no film will come close to $20 million over the weekend. Obviously this is not good news; however, this weekend last year was a disaster as Hall Pass led the way with just $13.54 million. There's a chance that every film in the top five will earn more than that this year. Granted, that's on the optimistic side of expectations, but even the low end of expectations has 2012 continuing its streak.
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February 17th, 2012
Next weekend, the widest release of the week will be Act of Valor, which is opening in 3000 theaters, going by early estimates. On the other hand, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds is only opening in 2000 theaters, again, going by early estimates. Despite this chasm in theater counts, many expect the latter to top the former by a wide degree at the box office and because of this, we are going to use Tyler Perry's Good Deeds as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction Contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Tyler Perry's Good Deeds.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Apartment on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Manhattan on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2012
2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start.
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