Susan Cooper is an unassuming, deskbound CIA analyst, and the unsung hero behind the Agency’s most dangerous missions. But when her partner falls off the grid and another top agent is compromised, she volunteers to go deep undercover to infiltrate the world of a deadly arms dealer, and prevent a global disaster.
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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It was the first full week for The Avengers: Age of Ultron on the home market and it topped the new releases for October 6th, 2015 and earned first place on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for October 11th. Over the week, the film sold 1.02 million units and generated $18.02 million for the week for sales of 2.62 million units / $47.21 million after nine days of release. By comparison, Furious 7 generated $47.05 million, not during its first two weeks, but since its release nearly a month ago. It is already in the top ten for the year and it should climb into the top five shortly.
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As expected, The Avengers: Age of Ultron led the September 29th new releases earning an easy first place on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for October 4th. It sold 1.60 million units and generated $29.35 million in revenue. It also had an opening week Blu-ray share of 69%. That's simply fantastic. However, it wasn't the best first-week opening we've seen this fall, as it fell just behind Furious 7. On the other hand, Age of Ultron was a Friday release, so it had a shorter opening week. Next week we will compare the running tallies of the two films and that will likely give us a much better picture of where these two films will end up.
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There are two $100 million movies on this week's list of Home Market Releases: Spy, which earned more than $100 million domestically, and Tomorrowland, which merely cost more than $100 million to make. Spy is arguably the best release on this week's list, but the Blu-ray was already named Pick of the Week, so that honor is going to Aladdin's Blu-ray debut this week.
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Spy is the latest collaboration between Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. The previoustwo were hits, both with critics and with moviegoers. Does Spy complete the hat trick? And is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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It is another week loaded with TV on DVD releases, including iZombie: Season One, which is one of the best new TV shows from last season. However, while that release is a Pick of the Week contender, the actual honor goes to Spy (DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack).
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Summer is officially over, both in theaters and on the home market. This week, the new releases are led by Mad Max: Fury Road, which was not only one of the biggest hits of the summer, it was also one of the best. Nearly everything else of note is TV on DVD, so if you are a fan of those releases, it will be an expensive week. There were several contenders for Pick of the Week, including two TV on DVD releases (Castle: Season 7 and New Girl: The Complete Fourth Season), a documentary (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me on DVD), but the winner is Mad Max: Fury Road on 3D Combo Pack.
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Pixels leads a group of three wide releases looking to battle for limited box office dollars. It appears to be on track for first place, but with not as much as I anticipated at the beginning of the month. This is partially explained by its reviews which are lower than the 30% to 40% positive range I was anticipating. Paper Towns is earning much better reviews, but still barely above the overall positive level. Finally there's Southpaw, which is earning mixed reviews and its buzz is weak, so it will likely be outside the top five over the weekend. Both Ant-Man and Minions should continue to perform well, with the former having a shot at first place, if Pixels flops. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that did quite well, Lucy and Hercules. I don't think any of the new releases this week will come close to earning the same as Lucy did, but I think the depth is better this year, so 2015 will still come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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The top of the box office had a small surprise, as Ant-Man earned first place with $57.23 million over the weekend. This is a little lower than predicted, but Minions really collapsed, so Ant-Man easily won the race for the top of the box office race. Meanwhile, Trainwreck had a solid third place opening and could be on its way to $100 million, thanks in part to its target demographic and to its reviews. Overall, the box office pulled in $194 million. This is 9.6% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 30% higher than the same weekend last year. 30%. That's a massive margin of victory. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $6.20 billion, which is 8.1% more than 2014's pace. Summer is winding down, so 2015 is in a great place moving into the slower part of the year. Even if August and September are slower than average, there's almost no chance 2015 will blow through the $460 million lead it has over 2014.
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Ant-Man opened in first place with $22.64 million on Friday, which puts it well ahead of Minions on the Friday box office chart. On the other hand, it was a little disappointing compared to expectations. Figuring out where it will end up is deceptively tricky given the number of other Marvel Cinematic Universe films to compare it to. Ant-Man's reviews continued to tick up, and are now at 80% positive—in the same range as the first Captain America movie. It also had a similar opening day to that film. However, Captain America opened before The Avengers and one could argue that every film after that should be considered a sequel, which would tend them towards being even more front-loaded than original films. Factoring that in, look for Ant-Man to post around $56 million over its opening weekend, which will give it an easy first place debut. Unless its legs are as long as Guardians of the Galaxy’s, it won't reach $200 million in total, but it should top its budget (reportedly $130 million) so it will become a box office success. Analysts hoping for the first MCU bomb will have to wait.
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There could be an interesting race on top of the box office charts this weekend, as Ant-Man will be looking to unseat Minions. However, while I think Ant-Man will come out on top on Friday, I think Minions will repeat over the weekend. The other new release of the week is Trainwreck, which has seen its reviews fall from 100% positive to a mere 90% positive. The amazing reviews and the success of R-rated female-centric films lately suggests it has the potential to reach $100 million. Inside Out and Jurassic World will also both hit milestones, so it should be an exciting weekend. This weekend last year, none of the three wide releases were particularly strong, which left Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in first place for the second weekend in a row with $36.25 million. Both Minions and Ant-Man will top that. Trainwreck might top that as well. It should be a good weekend for 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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(As I warned previously, we've run out of images for Jurassic World, so we are down to Picture Unrelated. And no, I will not explain the context of the image. I will say the TV show it comes from is surprisingly good.)
Jurassic World completed a hat-trick at the weekend by earning first place with $82.5 million in 67 markets for totals of $737.5 million internationally and $1.238 billion worldwide. The film entered the top ten on the all-time worldwide box office chart over the weekend and has already moved into seventh place. Its biggest single market was China, where it made $38.07 million over the full week for a total of $206.57 million after three weekends. Hopefully this is the last weekend the film spends in top spot, as new releases finally rise to overtake it. If it is still in first place next week, it will be a sign that the box office is slowing down.
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As expected, there was a race for the top spot on the box office chart over the weekend; however, it was only a two-way race. Jurassic World and Inside Out both earned more than $50 million over the weekend and were in a relatively tight race for first place. On the other hand, Ted 2 struggled somewhat in third. To be fair, it still made enough to become a hit, but not enough to justify a third installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, Max did fine, assuming it didn't cost more than reported. Overall, the box office fell 25% from last weekend, but it still earned $184 million, which is 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 5.1% at $5.37 billion to $5.11 billion. This is a great turnaround for a year that looked like it was going to drop below last year's pace.
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It’s the final weekend of June and there are two wide releases hoping to grab some cash before Independence Day Long Weekend. Ted 2 is a sequel to an amazingly popular R-rated comedy. Unfortunately, we’ve seen too many times that sequels to comedies rarely live up to to their predecessors. The other wide release is Max, which is being called “earnest,” which is both a compliment and an insult. Regardless, it likely won’t be a significant player at the box office this weekend. On the other hand, both Jurassic World and Inside Out have a legitimate shot at first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Transformers: Age of Extinction, which earned just over $100 million. No film will match that figure this weekend. On the other hand, the second place film last year was 22 Jump Street, which earned $15.84 million. 2015 won’t lead the way at the top of the chart, but it certainly has better depth than 2014 had and should come out on top of the year-over-year competition.
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Jurassic World remained in first place internationally, earning $160.5 million on 18,718 screens in 66 markets for a total of $583.1 million internationally. This pushed its worldwide total to $985.9 million. It hit $1 billion worldwide on Monday, which was a speed record for that milestone. Its biggest market was China, where it earned $68.84 million over the full week for a total of $168.24 million after 12 days of release. However, the film has been pushed into second place on the daily chart by SPL 2: A Time For Consequences. On the other hand, the film is still in first place in the U.K. with $17.53 million in 614 theaters for a two-week total of $60.67 million.
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It looks like Jurassic World is on pace to top The Avengers to become the biggest movie ever, not directed by a Canadian. It earned over $100 million at the weekend and has already passed $400 million. Meanwhile, Inside Out had the second-best opening for a Pixar film. It was a great weekend at the box office and we really needed it. The overall box office was down 9.5% from last weekend, but it was still at $248 million, which is the ninth-biggest combined weekend box office. Compared to last year, the box office was 70% higher this year. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $5.08 billion, which is 5.2% or $250 million over 2014's pace.
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For the past few months, 2015 had been struggling to keep pace with 2014. Worse still, 2014 wasn't a great year at the box office either. However, that changed with the record-breaking release of Jurassic World. Even if the film falls 60% this weekend, it will still lead the way over Inside Out. For the first time in their history, a Pixar film is expected to open in second place, but they have a good shot of continuing their record of having an opening weekend between $62.58 million and $70.47 million (which has been true of all but three of their films since 2001). That's incredible reliability. Dope is the other wide release, but it is barely opening truly wide and the worst case scenario has it failing to reach the top five. This weekend last year, there were five films that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be just two. However, last year, Think Like a Man Too was the top film with under $30 million. Jurassic World might earn three times than and Inside Out should at least double that. 2015 should be carried on Jurassic World's wave and easily come out on top of the year-over-year competition.
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Jurassic World completed the trifecta over the weekend. Not only did the film have the largest domestic debut, it broke the same record internationally and worldwide. The film pulled in $315.61 million on 19,612 screens in 66 markets for a worldwide opening weekend of $524.42 million. It broke the previous international and worldwide records that were held by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. It is also the first film to open with more than $500 million worldwide and it is just a matter of when, not if, it will top $1 billion globally. The only downside is the number of markets it has yet to open in, which is one. It debuts in Japan in August and it might be the biggest global hit of the year before it even gets there.
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After disappointing weekend after disappointing weekend, I had become pessimistic about any film's chances of being a breakout success this summer. Jurassic World changed that. The film didn't just top expectations, it broke all-time records. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $208.81 million. That is the record for biggest single weekend and it helped take the overall weekend box office to an all-time high with $273.67 million. This is 106% more than last weekend; that's right, the weekend box office was more than double last week's result. Additionally, and more importantly, it was 46% higher than the same weekend last year. Jurassic World itself earned 12% more than all films combined this weekend last year.
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Jurassic World is the only wide release this week and its box office potential is so high that it has scared away even the counter-programming. It isn't the only film playing in theaters this weekend, but it will very likely make more at the box office than the rest of them combined. Spy will be a distant second place and is hoping not to be crushed. If it can avoid falling 50%, it should have enough legs to reach the century mark. ... with a push from the studio. The only other film that is on track to earn more than $10 million over the weekend is San Andreas, which already crossed the $100 million mark. This weekend last year, two films opened wide, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Neither film will match Jurassic World individually, but they might have the advantage if you combine their openings. Additionally, there will only be two $10 million films this weekend, while there were three last year. 2015 will win on top, but 2014 has better depth and I think 2015 will lose the year-over-year comparison... again.
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San Andreas remained in first place over the weekend with $97.8 million in 69 markets for a total of $188.0 million internationally and $286.5 million worldwide. It is almost guaranteed that the film's production budget is fully covered and the film should have the legs to cover its full advertising budget before its international run is over. That means its home market run will be pure gravy. This week, its biggest market was China, where the film earned first place with $34.26 million over the weekend for a six-day opening of $51.95 million. It won't last in first place for long, as Jurassic World has already opened in that market and taken over top spot. (More on that this time next week.) Its next biggest opening was South Korea, where it also earned first place with $5.74 million on 847 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.25 million.
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None of the three new releases matched expectations and while the holdovers pulled their weight, it wasn't enough to help the overall box office. Spy didn't make it to $30 million during its opening weekend, but it came within a rounding error of that mark. Insidious Chapter 3 did very well compared to its production budget, but will likely be the weakest installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, if it weren't for its lower production budget, Entourage would be considered a bomb. Overall, the box office fell 4.3% from last weekend to $133 million. Worse still, the box office fell 18% from last year. Year-to-date, the overall box office has pulled in $4.39 billion, which is 1.2% above 2014's pace.
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Going into the weekend, any one of three films could conceivably win at the box office, with a fourth wide release having the potential to act as a spoiler by pulling away some of the audience from the others. In the event, the right film won, if one goes by the reviews, with Spy! pulling in $30 million to take the prize. That’s basically a par score for Melissa McCarthy, compared to Bridesmaids’ $26 million start, the $34.5 million debut of Identity Thief, The Heat’s $39 million, and Tammy’s $21.5 million. Paul Feig directed McCarthy in Bridesmaids, The Heat and now Spy!, so it’s a par score for him too.
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Insidious Chapter 3 came out on top on Friday's box office chart, at least according to the estimates. Its opening day haul of $10.4 million put it just ahead of Spy’s Friday box office of $10.3 million. (When we get the final numbers, it is not unlikely that these two will switch places.) However, while Insidious won the battle on Friday, it won’t win the war for the weekend. Horror films have much weaker internal multipliers (internal multiplier is the weekend total divided by the Friday box office). For example, Insidious Chapter 2 had an opening day of $20.23 million on its way to a $40.27 million weekend. Its internal multiplier was just 1.99. That’s low, even for a horror film. Insidious Chapter 3 should have a better multiplier than that, thanks to its better reviews, but not by a huge margin. It certainly won’t keep pace with Spy. Even $25 million is likely out of question with $23 million being the most likely result after Friday’s results. This might not be enough to keep pace with San Andreas by the end of the weekend.
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There are three wide releases this week, including one that is already in theaters. The biggest of these three releases is Spy, which is the latest film from Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. Both of their previous films crossed $100 million with ease. Insidious Chapter 3 is the third film in the Insidious franchise, but most think it won't be the best. Entourage started out ahead of expectations, but its reviews could cause a quick decline. This weekend last year, The Fault in Our Stars opened with nearly $50 million, while Maleficent landed in second place with more than $30 million. I don't think 2015 will be strong on top, but I think it will have better depth.
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San Andreas opened in first place on the international chart with $63.9 million on 15,420 screens in 60 markets. Its best international market was Mexico where it earned first place with $9.97 million. It also opened in first place in Australia with $2.47 million in 449 theaters. The film generated $7.07 million in 505 theaters in the U.K. and $5.16 million on 2,256 screens in Russia. The film was also potent in Brazil with an opening of $3.2 million in 926 theaters, while it earned a nearly identical amount in France with $3.19 million in 496. It is still too soon to tell where the film will end up, but it made more worldwide than it cost to make during its opening weekend, so the studio must be happy.
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May turned out to be softer than anticipated with The Avengers: Age of Ultron missing expectations by about $100 million. Additionally, only Pitch Perfect 2 really topped expectations. May 2015 kept pace with May of 2014, more or less. June doesn't have any films as strong as Age of Ultron, but there are two films that should have no trouble getting to $200 million. Those two films are Jurassic World and Inside Out and I'm not sure which one will turn out to be the biggest hit of the month. Last June, the biggest hit was Transformers: Age of Extinction, but both Jurassic World and Inside Out should top that film, albeit by small margins. On the other hand, last June had four other films that reached $100 million, while this time around only Spy! and Ted 2 have a real shot at that milestone. 2015 is stronger at the top, but has weaker depth. It will be interesting to see if 2015 will keep pace with 2014 over the course of the full month.
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Next week is the first week of June and there are three films opening wide: Entourage, Insidious: Chapter 3, and Spy! There's a chance none of these films will finish with $100 million at the box office, but Spy! has the best shot at that milestone. As such, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Spy!.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize. Because The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is coming out on 3D Blu-ray this Tuesday (Look for our review coming out over the weekend.) our Frankenprizes will feature SpongeBob SquarePants releases, as well as other similar kids DVDs. Its a great prize to win just as school ends.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a SpongeBob Frankenprize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a SpongeBob Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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For the fifth week in a row, The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in first place. This week it pulled in $45.8 million in 91 markets for month-long totals of $859.8 million internationally and $1.265 billion worldwide. The film made $53.98 million in China, but that was for the full week, giving it a running tally of $209.39 million after 13 days of release. At this pace, the film should have no trouble hitting $900 million internationally and $1.3 million worldwide, likely over the weekend. Meanwhile, it has yet to open in Japan and should made $50 million, more or less, in that market alone. Will it get to $1 billion internationally? It is still too soon to tell. It should at least be close.
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Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.
