Home Market Releases for December 17th, 2019

December 18th, 2019

There’s almost exactly a week till Christmas, which explains the slim number of new releases. That said, nearly every film on the main list is worth picking up with a few contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close three-way race, but in the end, Abominable earned Pick of the Week. More...

International Box Office: Ad Astra Shines on Top of the Chart

October 3rd, 2019

Ad Astra spent a second weekend on top of the international box office earning $18.0 million in 50 markets for totals of $53.5 million internationally and $88.9 million worldwide. The film had an elite opening in Russia with $3.16 million on 1,337 screens, earning first place in the process. On the other hand, it failed to crack $1 million during its debuts in both Brazil ($900,000) and Italy ($898,000). More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Abominable Leads Small Box Office

October 1st, 2019

Abominable led the way at the box office this weekend, but there wasn’t a lot to celebrate. That film merely did okay for this time of year, while there were no other new releases to boost the box office. This led to a 25% drop-off from last weekend, down to a mere $92 million. Worse still, this is 13% lower than the same weekend last year when Night School and Smallfoot were a strong one-two box office punch. We’ve had a couple of winning weeks in a row, so this loss doesn’t hurt 2019’s chances too much and the deficit is practically the same as it was last week at 5.6% or $490 million at $8.28 billion to $8.77 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Abominable Earning Average-Sized Opening

September 29th, 2019

It is a mixed bag at the box office this weekend. None of the films are bombing, there are also no wild success stories either. Abominable is leading the way with an estimated $20.85 million opening. This is a little below expectations, but still a fine opening for this time of year. Additionally, its prospects have improved over the weekend, so it is clear its reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore have helped its word-of-mouth and that should help its legs going forward. The film also earned an estimated $8.8 million internationally in 30 markets for an early international total of $10.2 million It is still too early to judge how the film will do overseas. More...

Friday Estimates: Abominable Grows on its Opening Day

September 28th, 2019

Abominable bounced back a bit during Friday to earn $5.69 million. This is still behind Smallfoot’s opening Friday, but it is better than its previews. This is strong evidence that the film’s reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore is already having a positive effect. $20 million is now much more likely than it was yesterday at this time, while with a little luck, it will match our $22 million prediction. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Abominable Live Up to Its Name or will it be ... Bominable?

September 26th, 2019

The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film. More...

International Box Office: Ad Astra is the Real Star of the International Chart

September 26th, 2019

Last week, the international box office was dominated by international releases with six of the top seven films coming from overseas. This week, there is only four films that earned more than $10 million and only one of them wasn’t a Hollywood release. Ad Astra led the way earning $26 million in 44 markets during its first weekend of release. The film’s biggest market was the U.K., where it opened in second place with $2.83 million in 616 theaters. It did as well in South Korea with $2.32 million on 853 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.68 million. The film also cracked $2 million in France ($2.7 million) and Japan ($2.2 million). The film has yet to open in several major markets, so it is far from done. That said, it was an expensive movie to make and while it is doing better internationally, it isn’t doing well enough to break even any time soon. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Downton Opens High with New Focus Features Record

September 23rd, 2019

It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis. More...

Weekend Estimates: Downton goes Downtown with $31 million

September 22nd, 2019

Downton Abbey is not only going to earn first place on the weekend box office chart, but it is going to set the record for Focus Features with an opening weekend of $31.0 million. This is substantially more than predicted and substantially more than Focus Features’ previous best opening weekend of $22.69 million earned by Insidious Chapter 3. Additionally, thanks to its reviews, its A-rating from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it has a real chance at $100 million domestically. Or it could have a serious Fanboy Effect, because it is a TV adaptation. We will know more next weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Downton Abbey has Class

September 21st, 2019

Downton Abbey stunned analysts with an opening day of $13.38 million on Friday. However, this does include two days of previews, so keep that in mind going forward. The film’s reviews are in the 80% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest longer than average legs, but not enough to deal with the two days of previews. It should open with more than $30 million, which is not only much better than anticipated, it will be the best opening weekend for Focus Features. More...

Thursday Night Previews: New Releases Are Not Exactly Reaching the Stars

September 20th, 2019

Downton Abbey is going to top expectations this weekend, unless something really strange happens. The film earned $2.1 million during last night’s previews, making it easily the best of this weekend’s crop. (It also made $2.2 million in previous paid previews, so it is off to a $4.3 million start.) Additionally, its reviews are solid, even if its average score is below 7 out of 10. Finally, its target audience isn’t the type to rush out to see a movie opening night, so this start is even more impressive. I am a little concerned that the Fanboy Effect is in play here, despite the target audience, so keep that in mind. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Shoot for the Stars?

September 20th, 2019

A better than expected opening by Hustlers and a stronger than expected hold by It: Chapter Two helped 2019 earn its second win in the year-over-year comparison last weekend. Meanwhile, we have three new releases hoping to extend the winning streak this weekend. Unfortanately, all three films have something holding them back. For example, Ad Astra was made by Fox before the merger with Disney and I’m not sure Disney is 100% behind this movie. Downton Abbey is based on a recent TV show and people are not always willing to go to the theater and spend money on something they could recently watch on TV for free. Finally, Rambo: Last Blood is earning weak reviews and that could hurt its box office chances. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $26.61 million, while A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have no movie earn more than $20 million, but there are five films that should have no trouble getting to $10 million. This depth could help extend 2019’s winning streak to three weeks. More...

Home Market Releases for September 3rd, 2019

September 4th, 2019

It’s another short week with not a lot to talk about. The biggest release of the week is Men in Black International, but it missed expectations by a significant margin. The best first-run release is Booksmart, which also missed expectations by a significant margin, but it is still good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. In fact, it’s only competition is My Hero Academia: Season Three, Part Two. It came down to a literal coin toss and My Hero Academia won, but both deserve the title. More...

2019 Preview: September

September 1st, 2019

Summer ended on a thoroughly mediocre note, with more August releases missing expectations than topping them. That said, it wasn’t a complete mess, with Hobbs and Shaw doing extremely well internationally, and some others heading towards profitability, if not becoming spectacular hits. September, on the other hand, should be one of the best months in the year, at least on the year-over-year competition. The month starts with It: Chapter Two, which could open with more than $100 million. By comparison, last September, only one film, The Nun, earned more than $100 million in total. Additionally, Abominable has a slim but realistic chance at reaching the $100 million milestone, so it should be a great month on the year-over-year comparison. 2019 isn’t going to catch up to 2018, but it should narrow the gap considerably. More...

Rambo: Last Blood Trailer 2

August 20th, 2019

Action movie starring Sylvester Stallone opens September 20 ... Full Movie Details.

Almost four decades after he drew first blood, John Rambo is back. Now, Rambo must confront his past and unearth his ruthless combat skills to exact revenge in a final mission. More...

Rambo: Last Blood Trailer

May 31st, 2019

Action movie starring Sylvester Stallone opens September 20 ... Full Movie Details.

Almost four decades after he drew first blood, John Rambo is back as one of the greatest action heroes of all time. Now, Rambo must confront his past and unearth his ruthless combat skills to exact revenge in a final mission. More...