November 10th, 2014
It is not a very deep week on the home market. Leading the way is How to Train Your Dragon 2 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack or 3D Combo Pack. The film failed to live up to high expectations at the box office, but it earned Oscar-worthy reviews. If it doesn't at least earn a nomination for Best Feature-Length Animated Film, I would be shocked. So it should come as no surprise that the Pick of the Week is The Compleat Al, which is making its DVD debut this week.
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September 16th, 2014
No Good Deed led the box office this weekend with a surprisingly robust opening of $24.25 million. This was more than double last week's number one movie, Guardians of the Galaxy. Dolphin Tale 2 also topped last week's number one film, even though it didn't live up to expectations. Overall, the box office pulled in $90 million, which was 37% more than last weekend. Unfortunately, this was still 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.26 billion, which isn't an insignificant amount. However, it is 5.2% or nearly $400 million behind last year's pace. 2014 still has a chance to catch up to last year, but the odds of it doing so are getting slimmer and slimmer each week.
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September 11th, 2014
Last weekend was the worst weekend in more than a decade. This weekend the box office will bounce back, because it has to. It can't possibly get worse. There are two wide releases debuting this weekend: Dolphin Tale 2 and No Good Time. Neither film is expected to become a big hit; in fact, if either film earns more than $20 million over the weekend, I will be impressed. That said, they will still be a step up from what happened last weekend. The biggest news of the weekend will come from Guardians of the Galaxy, which will become the first film released in 2014 to top $300 million. This weekend last year, Insidious Chapter 2 opened with more than $40 million and the combined openings of the two new releases this weekend will likely be below that. Worse case scenario has neither film opening above last year's number two film, The Family. There's almost no chance 2014 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 9th, 2014
The weekend box office was an unmitigated disaster. Guardians of the Galaxy was the only film to crack $10 million over the weekend and there were no other releases that came close. The only new "wide" release was The Identical, and it missed the top ten. Overall, the box office fell 40% from last weekend to just $66 million. It goes without saying that this is the worst box office of the year so far. In fact, it is the fifth worst box office weekend since 2000 running 23% lower than the worst weekend from last year. The worst weekend from last year was this weekend last year, so that makes the comparison so much easier. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $7.15 billion, which is 5.1% lower than the last year's pace. Things better turn around soon, or we can say goodbye to any chance to catch up to last year.
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September 5th, 2014
It's the weekend after Labor Day Weekend, which is historically the one of the two worst weekends of the year. Only the weekend after Thanksgiving really competes with it. This year there is only one wide release, The Identical, and it technically not opening truly wide. It is practically guaranteed that Guardians of the Galaxy will win the weekend box office race for the fourth time in its run and there likely won't be many changes in the top five. (As Above, So Below will drop out and The November Man will take its place.) This weekend last year, Riddick opened in first place with $19.03 million. No film this week it going to match that figure and the depth this year isn't going to help. Look for a big loss in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 4th, 2014
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes rose from eighth to first place thanks to its debut in China. Overall, the film made $51.2 million in 29 markets for totals of $408.0 million internationally and $613.3 million worldwide. It dominated the box office in China with $45.13 million and if it has any legs in this market, it will reach $500 million internationally and $750 million worldwide is within reach after its run in Japan.
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September 3rd, 2014
Labor Day Weekend was dominated by holdovers. The two new releases were As Above, So Below and The November Man, which opened in fourth and sixth places respectively. Guardians of the Galaxy remained in first place over the weekend and climbed into first place for the year in the process, overtaking fellow Marvel Film, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Overall, the box office fell 4% from last weekend down to $110 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 11%, which is troubling. Year-to-date, 2014 is now behind 2013 by a 4.5% margin at $7.07 billion to $7.40 billion. This is the weakest post-Labor Day weekend running tally since 2008 and that's before you look at ticket price inflation. With ticket price inflation, you have to go back to 2005.
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August 28th, 2014
It's Labor Day Weekend, which is historically the worst long weekend of the year. This year As Above, So Below and The November Man are trying to avoid bombing this weekend. It looks like As Above, So Below will be a middling hit thanks in part to its low production budget. On the other hand, The November Man only managed fifth place during its opening day and it will likely get worse over the weekend. This leaves Guardians of the Galaxy with an easy path to first place for the weekend, and coincidentally, an easy path for first place for the year so far. Labor Day last year was led by One Direction: This is Us and there's really no chance the new releases this year will do the same. 2014 does have better depth, but I don't think that will be enough to continue the winning streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 26th, 2014
Of the three wide releases, none topped expectations and only If I Stay did decent business at the box office. It only managed third place, but it did have the best per theater average in the top twenty. This left holdovers atop of the box office chart with Guardians of the Galaxy returning to first place and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles slipping to second place. Overall, the box office was down 20% from last weekend to $115 million. However, this was 4.7% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the more important metric. Unfortunately, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a large margin of $330 million or 4.7% at $6.91 billion to $7.24 billion.
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August 21st, 2014
Last weekend, there were three wide releases, but only one of them did relatively well. This weekend, there are also three wide releases and hopefully they will perform better at the box office. There are some positive signs and some analysts think both Sin City: A Dame To Kill For and If I Stay will open with more than $20 million while When the Game Stands Tall could make more than $10 million. That's on the high side. On the low side, none of the new releases will open in first place and Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will be in a battle for first and second place. That said, this weekend last year, none of the three wide releases earned more than $10 million during the weekend and only two films in total reached that mark over the weekend. Even low-end expectations for this year are more bullish than that, so 2014 should continue its winning streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 19th, 2014
Only one of the three wide releases this past weekend did reasonably well over the weekend. Despite earning reviews that were flirting with single-digits, Let's Be Cops was the best of the new releases this weekend earning an acceptable opening. On the other hand, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy held on well earning first and second places over the weekend. The overall box office plummeted from last weekend down 23% to $143 million, but this is still 2.5% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013, even though the gap shrunk a little bit at 4.5% or $6.75 billion to $7.07 billion.
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August 17th, 2014
Three lackluster debuts have allowed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy to keep the top two spots at the box office this weekend. Turtles will be down a fairly modest 57% in its second weekend for $28.4 million, and $117.6 million in total after two weekends. Guardians will be down 41% in its third weekend for a total of $222 million, and will remain on track to become the highest-grossing film of the Summer. Things look much less pretty for the openers.
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August 14th, 2014
The strong opening by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles allowed summer to be extended one more weekend. This week three films look to avoid flopping, thus signaling the end of summer, but in order to do so, they must defy critics. The Expendables 3 is the biggest of the three films opening this weekend, but the franchise appears to be on a downward trajectory. Let's Be Cops opened on Wednesday, but with simply awful reviews, the word-of-mouth could kill it by the time the weekend starts. Finally, The Giver is the latest Young Adult adaptation, but this genre has produced more flops than even midlevel hits. Frankly, the most interesting aspect of the weekend box office will likely be milestones reached by Guardians of the Galaxy and other movies, rather than the new releases. This weekend last year was also arguably the the end of summer. The Butler was the only movie to make more than $20 million, while three of the four wide releases opened in fifth place or weaker. It looks like 2014 will continue its winning streak.
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August 7th, 2014
This week, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opens wide and we have a trio of TMNT prizes to give away. However, obviously we can't use that film as the target film, so we have to look to next week. I think Let's Be Cops will be the better movie, perhaps even the bigger movie. However, it opens on the Wednesday, so The Expendables 3 is the better choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Expendables 3.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Turtle Power: The Definitive History Of The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles on DVD, plus a previously released TMNT DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a previously reviewed TMNT DVD.
Finally, one additional entry will be chosen, regardless of the accuracy of their prediction, and that person will also win a previously reviewed TMNT DVD. So if you are really bad at predicting box office numbers, this is the contest to enter.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2014
July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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