December 19th, 2017
By this time next week, Christmas will be over. This resulted in a short list, but not a bad week. Dunkirk is the biggest new release of the week and it is award-worthy and a contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, The Amicus Collection, Stronger, A Town Called Panic: The Collection, and others are too. As for the best of the best, I went with The Tragically Hip: A National Celebration on DVD or Blu-ray.
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December 12th, 2017
Christmas is rapidly approaching, so most of the big releases have already hit the home market. The biggest box office release on this week’s list is Kingsman: The Golden Circle, but its reviews were only mixed. The biggest release overall is Game of Thrones: Season Seven, while the only other competition for Pick of the Week is Election: The Criterion Collection. I’m going to award the title to Game of Thrones, even though the screener didn’t arrive until Monday afternoon.
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October 5th, 2017
September ended on a slow note, but it looks like October will open fast. Blade Runner 2049 has been setting October pre-order records for a few sites, but it will also need strong walk-up sales in order to actually break the October weekend record, currently held by Gravity, with $55 million. I don’t think that’s likely, but at this point I would be shocked if it didn’t land in the top ten weekends for the month. The Mountain Between Us looks more and more like busted Oscar-bait. Its reviews have fallen from just over 70% positive to under 50% positive. As I started writing this, My Little Pony: The Movie still had no reviews, which is almost worse than bad reviews. (Reviews are starting to trickle in.) Finally there’s Victoria and Abdul, which is expanding. It isn’t expanding wide, or even semi-wide; however, it should still earn a spot in the top ten. This weekend last year, The Girl on the Train opened with $24.54 million. Blade Runner 2049 could earn twice that. If 2017 does win in the year-over-year comparison, then it will be on the back of Blade Runner 2049.
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October 3rd, 2017
The top three films on the weekend box office chart landed in the same order as predicted; however, it was a much closer race than most thought it would be. Kingsman: The Golden Circle ended up on top with $16.94 million, just ahead of It with $16.90 million. The best new release of the week was American Made with $16.78 million. The other new releases struggled, to be kind, with Flatliners earning a distant fifth place and Til Death Do Us Part opening in ninth place. Overall, the box office fell 23% from last weekend to just $90 million. It was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year, thus ending 2017’s mini-winning streak. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $8.06 billion, putting it 4.8% or $410 million behind last year’s pace.
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September 30th, 2017
American Made topped the box office chart on Friday with $6.1 million. This is a little better than predicted and certainly better than previews were suggesting it would make. Its 85% positive reviews should result in long legs. On the other hand, its B plus from CinemaScore is the definition of average. It could grab first place with just over $16 million, but it is not the only film on pace to earn that much this weekend.
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September 28th, 2017
It looks like September will end with a whimper, as there are three wide releases, none of which are expected to be midlevel hits. American Made should have no trouble being the biggest of the three new releases, but it has a less than 50/50 chance of earning first place. Flatliners’ buzz started out quiet and it failed to grow by any significant margin. It looks like it will open below $10 million. Finally there’s Til Death Do Us Part, which may or may not manage a spot in the top ten. 2017’s mini-winning streak looks to be over, as this weekend last year had two films earning more than $20 million, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and Deepwater Horizon. This year, there will likely be none.
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September 28th, 2017
Kingsman: The Golden Circle made its international debut and it was mostly really good news, as it topped the chart with $61.18 million on 11,623 screens in 64 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned $11.40 million on 602 screens. This is a massive improvement over the $6.4 million its predecessor opened with. Likewise, this film earned $6.01 million on 1300 screens in Russia, up from $3.5 million for the first film. It wasn’t able to grow that much in Australia, but it did increase its haul to $4.56 million on 405 screens, up from $3.22 million on 372 for the original film. The film has yet to open in France, South Korea, China, and Japan, so this is a great start. It very likely won’t have the same legs, but even so, $400 million worldwide is a solid milestone to aim for, given this start.
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September 26th, 2017
The weekend box office was good, for a September weekend, but disappointing compared to expectations. Kingsman: The Golden Circle did earn first place, but with only $39.02 million. Granted, this is great for September, but $10 million less than our prediction, and our prediction wasn’t even on the high end of expectations. The Lego Ninjago Movie struggled in third place with $20.43 million. The shine has come off the Lego franchise. Fortunately, It continues to be strong and that helped the overall box office. We saw 5.6% growth from last weekend reaching $117 million. This is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year, so there’s clearly reason to celebrate. 2017 is still behind 2016 in the year-to-date comparison, but it closed the gap to 4.7% or $390 million at $7.94 billion to $8.33 billion.
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September 24th, 2017
The fine line between mere popularity and capturing the zeitgeist (or going viral, to use a slightly more up-to-date term) is shown in this weekend’s box office results. Kingsman: The Golden Circle, a decently-reviewed sequel to a very popular franchise-starter, will pick up a very respectable $39 million this weekend. That’s a shade better than the original film made on its opening weekend, and a pretty satisfying result for all concerned. With good business expected overseas (we don’t have an official estimate yet), the film should cruise to profitability overall, and will most likely top $100 million domestically. It would also have counted as the fourth-best opening weekend in September, were it not for the behemoth zeitgeist-capturer, It.
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September 23rd, 2017
Kingsman: The Golden Circle opened on the low end of expectations with $15.33 million on Friday. This puts it on pace for just under $40 million over the full weekend. This is a little more than the $36.21 million the original managed back in 2015. This film has earned weaker reviews, but both films earned a B plus from CinemaScore. Still sequels tend to have shorter legs, so getting much past $100 million domestically will be difficult. This is not good news for a film that cost $104 million to make. I don’t think there will be a third film in the franchise, not unless it shows some growth internationally.
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September 22nd, 2017
As expected, Kingsman: The Golden Circle had the best previews, earning $3.4 million last night. The original film opened with $1.4 million during its previews; however, this is not a good predictor for two reasons. Firstly, that was two years ago, which is a lifetime ago in terms of previews. Secondly, it was at a different time of year and previews are very dependent on time of year. Perhaps a closer comparison would be The Magnificent Seven, as that film earned $1.75 million this weekend last year, on the way to $67 million. However, Kingsman: The Golden Circle earned weaker reviews and it has a younger target audience, so it will likely have worse legs. In fact, it could have worse legs than It did, which would leave the film with just $31 million during its opening weekend. I was expecting about $4 million last night, so unless its legs are better, it won’t match its prediction. That said, just over $40 million is still good and if it can merely match its predecessor’s legs, then it will break even sometime during its home market run.
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September 21st, 2017
There are three wide releases coming out this week, which is one more than anticipated. Kingsman: The Golden Circle is widely expected to earn first place during the weekend, but The Lego Ninjago Movie is widely expected to have longer legs and that could give it the win overall. Meanwhile, Friend Request is just hoping to earn a spot in the top five. It’s not a sure bet that it will. Meanwhile, It will relinquish first spot and fall to third place, but still earn a ton of money. This weekend last year, the one-two punch of The Magnificent Seven and Storks helped the overall box office pull in $104 million. The top three films this year should earn more than that, to give 2017 another win. It will still take a lot to recover, but this result at least makes that possible.
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September 15th, 2017
It looks like it will be a good weekend at the box office next weekend, as both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to earn $100 million domestically. Ninjago should earn more overall, but Kingsman should start faster. Because of that, it is the better choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Kingsman: The Golden Circle.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of VEEP: Season Six on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Silicon Valley: Season Four on Blu-ray.
Finally, we will also chose an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win a copy of The Immortal Life Of Henrietta Lacks on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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September 1st, 2017
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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July 20th, 2017
Animated adventure opens September 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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