July 18th, 2012
New releases were nearly absent from the DVD sales chart this week with none in the top ten. This left the top five pretty much the same as last week. 21 Jump Street remained in top spot with 280,000 units / $5.03 million for the week giving it totals of 1.01 million units / $17.47 million.
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July 17th, 2012
It's broken record time. As is usual for this time of year, it is a slow week on the home market. There are two first run releases coming out, Lockout and The Three Stooges, but neither film was a box office hit. On the other hand, there are a number of catalogue titles (Singin' In the Rain); limited releases (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen); and TV on DVD releases (Sanctuary: The Complete Fourth Season). All three of those releases are contenders for Pick of the Week, but in the end I went with Leverage: Season Four.
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July 14th, 2012
Journey to the Center of the Earth opened in 2008 with positive reviews and was a sizable hit earning just over $100 million domestically and close to $250 million worldwide. It makes sense a sequel was made. However, the star of the original decided to sit this one out, which is a bad sign. However, it still earned just over $100 million domestically and was an even bigger hit worldwide. I won't be surprised if the studio makes a third film, but will I look forward to seeing it? Or has the franchise already worn out its welcome.
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June 20th, 2012
New releases dominated the Blu-ray sales chart just as much as it did the DVD sales chart. Two Blu-rays, John Carter and Act of Valor topped the list. John Carter led the way in terms of units with 965,000 units / $19.30 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was just shy of 60%. The film is still going to lose money, but its high definition run should at least cut the loses a bit.
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June 19th, 2012
The winner of our One for the Ages contest were determined and they are...
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June 18th, 2012
New releases dominated the DVD sales chart this week earning the top five spots. They also placed five more DVDs in the top twenty. Act of Valor led the way with 703,000 units / $11.94 million, which is a surprisingly strong start.
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June 12th, 2012
The winners of our Reruns contest were determined and they are...
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June 7th, 2012
It should be another very close race for top spot on the box office next weekend with Rock of Ages and That's My Boy having about equal chances of earning first place. I think Rock of Ages will earn better reviews and will come out on top by a narrow margin. Regardless if I'm right, it is the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Rock of Ages.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island on Blu-ray
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Journey 2: The Mysterious Island on Blu-ray
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! In the meantime, check out the new Journey 2 App.
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June 5th, 2012
While summer is usually the slowest time of the year on the home market, this week is fantastic with a lot of prime releases, including first-run, TV on DVD releases, classics and limited releases. Unfortunately, the largest single category is, "Screener is Late". You will see that phrase countless times on this list. (Perhaps it's because last week was a short week due to Memorial Day.) It is especially hard to select a Pick of the Week, because I don't like handing out that title when the screener is late. There are a few likely candidates, including Burn Notice: The Complete Fifth Season, Yellow Submarine on Blu-ray, but I went with Tomboy on DVD.
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April 16th, 2012
The overall box office went about as well as expected over the weekend; however, that's not particularly good news, as expectations were low to begin with. The Hunger Games remained on top of the box office for the fourth time, making it the first film since Avatar to accomplish that feat. However, there wasn't a lot of celebrate over the weekend, as the box office fell 8% from last weekend to $114 million. More importantly, this was 12% lower than the same weekend last year, making this the worst year-over-year decline of 2012. That said, 2012 still has a massive lead on 2011 up $2.98 billion to $2.50 billion and if the summer is as good as the first part of the year was, that lead will be even greater by the time the Fall rolls around.
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March 21st, 2012
John Carter's international run is heavenly, at least compared to its domestic run. It's weak compared to its production budget. This weekend it added $40.7 million in 54 markets for a total of $126.10 million. It opened huge in China with $10.4 million, while it held on reasonably well in Russia earning $6.60 million on 939 screens over the weekend for a total of $26.10 million after two. At this pace, getting to $200 million internationally and $300 million worldwide might be difficult. And that would be the minimum needed to save face.
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March 14th, 2012
John Carter absolutely dominated the international box office; however, this is because of how wide it opened, not how strong its opening was. Over the weekend, it earned $66.12 million on 18,890 screens in 51 markets for a total opening of $68.93 million. Its per screen average was a mere $3,500, which is low for this type of release. There were some highlights, led by a first place, $16.55 million opening on 939 screens in Russia. It also opened in first place in Mexico with $3.42 million on 1,144, which is better than Journey 2: The Mysterious Island opened with earlier in the year. On the other hand, it's first place opening in the U.K. was more subdued at $3.07 million on 456 screens.
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March 7th, 2012
It was a slow week on the international chart with only three films that topped $10 million. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island was the best, earning $15.7 million on 6,381 screens in 52 markets for a total of 185.6 million internationally and $270.8 million worldwide. It has now topped the original worldwide as well as internationally. The film opened in Germany with a mediocre total of $1.68 million on 424 screens. However, it is already a success, so the studio shouldn't complain about that result. The film has yet to open in Japan, but when it does, it should be above $300 million worldwide.
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March 2nd, 2012
March begins with two wide releases, although there's no real suspense which one will lead the way at the box office. Doctor Seuss' The Lorax should have no trouble earning first place. The real question is whether or not it will top Rango, which opened with $38 million last year. Not everyone is convinced it will. The only other wide release is Project X, which has a range of expectations going from the low teens to the mid-twenties. If both films land in the high end of expectations, then 2012 should continue its winning streak, as this year has slightly better depth than last year.
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February 29th, 2012
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance rose to first place with $21.44 million on 4,889 screens in 28 markets for a two-week total of $45.74 million. This week it opened in a trio of major markets, starting with Russia where it debuted in first place with $8.18 million on 913 screens. By comparison, Ghost Rider made $7.77 million in total in that market, so this is a great start. On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Germany with $2.32 million on 428, which is roughly on par with its predecessor's opening. But it only managed third place in Spain with $1.16 million on 439. By comparison, the film made $3.12 million during its opening there. Mixed results make it difficult to predict the film's final box office number, but I think it is safe to say there won't be a Ghost Rider 3 any time soon.
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February 28th, 2012
There was a surprise winner at the box office this weekend as Act of Valor opened on the very high end of expectations while Good Deeds did the opposite. Overall, more films missed expectations than met them and this led to a 14% drop-off from last week. However, the total haul of $134 million was still 23% higher than the same weekend last year, which stretches the winning streak to eight weeks. Or to put it another way, every single weekend this year has been higher than the corresponding weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of last year's pace by 18% at $1.62 billion to $1.38 billion. There is some bad news going forward, as I don't think March 2012 is as strong as March 2011.
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February 23rd, 2012
While this weekend is one of the most important weekends of the year for movies, it's not because of the films in theaters. Oscar weekend is generally not a good time to release a film, as a lot of fans will be distracted. To emphasize that, there are four films opening wide this weekend, but three of them are opening in barely more than 2,000 theaters. Expectations for most films are in the mid teens, or lower, and there's a chance that no film will come close to $20 million over the weekend. Obviously this is not good news; however, this weekend last year was a disaster as Hall Pass led the way with just $13.54 million. There's a chance that every film in the top five will earn more than that this year. Granted, that's on the optimistic side of expectations, but even the low end of expectations has 2012 continuing its streak.
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February 22nd, 2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island remained on top of the international chart with $27.5 million on 8,249 screens in 43 markets for a total of $130.0 million internationally. By comparison, its predecessor made $140 million in total. This week, The Mysterious Island opened in second place in France with $2.71 million on 436 screens, while it managed first place in Spain with $2.10 million on 468. The film is almost at $200 million worldwide, and with several major markets left to go, it should have no trouble getting to $250 million and maybe even $300 million.
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February 21st, 2012
Two of the three wide releases missed expectations and the best of the bunch, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, only managed third place over the weekend. However, the overall box office still pulled out a win in the year-over-year comparison. The box office did fall 19% from last weekend to $156 million, but this was 8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is much more important. The lead over last year grew to over $200 million at $1.46 billion to $1.23 billion, or 18%. Granted, it is still too early to celebrate, but so far the year-over-year numbers are fantastic while next weekend it looks even better.
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February 19th, 2012
A tight battle is brewing for box office honors this weekend, based on the studios' Sunday estimates. Safe House is currently ahead, with Universal predicting a $24 million 3-day weekend. The Vow runs in second place with $23.6 million according to Sony, which also has Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance in third place with $22 million. Adding to the uncertainty, the most family-friendly film in the top ten, Journey 2: Mysterious Island is only a few million back, with Warner Bros. projecting it will make $20.1 million through Sunday. Overall, it looks as though Safe House will win both the 3-day and 4-day races, although Journey 2 could win Monday.
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February 16th, 2012
We enter Presidents Day long weekend with a substantial lead on 2011. (Although we are way behind 2010's and even 2009's pace. I choose to focus on the positive.) There are some good signs going into this weekend. Depending on who you talk to, there are two or three films that could hit $20 million over the three-day weekend and five or six that could reach $10 million. The best new release of the week, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance could make more than $30 million over three days and $40 million over four. There is some bad news, as this weekend last year was also pretty potent with six films earning more than $10 million over the three-day weekend. However, 2012 has better strength at the top, which should help it earn yet another win.
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February 15th, 2012
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island climbed into first place with $30.0 million on 8,580 screens in 30 markets for a total of $79.20 million. To put this into perspective, its predecessor made $140 million in total, which is a figure this film could match, even if it didn't have any additional markets left to open in. Its biggest opening this weekend was in China where it earned $9.5 million, while it was also a big hit in Russia with $6.97 million on 1,021 screens. The film debuts in France and Spain this weekend, and has yet to open in Italy, Germany, Japan, and other markets.
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February 13th, 2012
Another weekend, another win. For the sixth weekend in a row, 2012 has topped 2011 in the year-over-year, and like much of the year, it wasn't even close. The overall box office was up 66% from last weekend reaching $192 million. It was also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. All four wide releases beat expectations, sometimes by wide margins. Also, all earned more than $20 million, which is the first time that's happened on a non-holiday weekend. And two of them earned $40 million or more. Year-to-date, 2012 now has a 19% lead on 2011 at $1.19 billion to $1.00 billion. There is reason to be cautious however, as a lot of this growth is due to 2011 getting off to a disastrous start. It is still too soon to declare victory, but it is reason to at least be somewhat optimistic.
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February 12th, 2012
The industry's good start to 2012 gained some more momentum this weekend as all four new releases performed at or beyond expectations. The Vow will lead the way, based on Sony's projection, with $41.7 million, which is a little less than 2010's Valentine's Day, although that film had the advantage of both Valentine's Day itself, and a four-day weekend. Safe House will open with around $39.3 million for Universal, which will be the studio's best opening since Fast Five in April of last year. Journey 2: Mysterious Island is set for $27.55 million, according to Warner Bros., and Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace will pick up $23 million or so for Fox. That foursome will ensure a record is set this weekend: for the first time, four films will open with over $20 million on a non-holiday weekend.
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February 9th, 2012
2012 has beaten 2011 every single weekend so far and we could see that streak survive at least one more weekend thanks to three wide releases: Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, Safe House, and The Vow, plus a re-release, Star Wars Ep. I: The Phantom Menace. That's a crowded slate and normally I would assume one or more of the films would be squeezed out at the box office, but now I'm not so sure, as even the weakest amongst them is tracking for close to $20 million. By comparison, this weekend last year three films earned more than $25 million and only one new release failed to connect with audiences. So it could be a tough race, but I'm cautiously optimistic.
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February 8th, 2012
Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol has reached two milestones since last week, reaching $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. It added $24.31 million on 6,259 screens in 51 markets over the weekend and now has $420.83 million internationally and $626.03 million worldwide. Of its weekend haul, $20 million came from China, which was $7 million more than last week's opening.
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February 3rd, 2012
The widest release of next week is Journey 2: The Mysterious Island; however, I think Safe House will have the biggest opening weekend of the four wide releases / re-releases. As such, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction Contest. Meanwhile, since our Oscar Prediction contest begins next week, this week's prizes are two films that battled for Oscar glory in the past. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Safe House.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Annie Hall on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Manhattan of Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2012
2012 got off to a great start, with January earning four wins in a row in the year-over-year comparison and finishing the month with a double-digit lead over 2011's pace. This has made me very hopeful going forward. That said, there are fourteen films opening wide or being re-released wide in February, and I don't think there's a $100 million hit in the group. In fact, I don't think any will get all that close to the century mark. There are several that should be solid mid-level hits and with a little luck, half of them could reached $50 million and there are five that could reach $75 million. Last February, Just Go With It topped $100 million while Gnomeo and Juliet came within $33,000 of doing the same. We won't replicate that this year, so we have to hope for a lot more depth. If films like Safe House, Journey 2, Ghost Rider 2, The Phantom Menace: 3D and The Vow all meet expectations, then perhaps 2012 will continue its hot start.
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January 25th, 2012
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows was again the top film on the international box office, even though it fell significantly from last week. It generated an additional $18.3 million on 7,505 screens in 57 markets for totals of $261.3 million internationally and $439.6 million worldwide. Getting to $400 million worldwide is more than enough to show a profit, unless it cost a ridiculous amount for global prints and advertising. There were no major new markets to report on last weekend, but it did add $2.38 million on 422 screens over the weekend in Brazil, giving the film a total of $8.08 million after two. Up next is France this weekend, while it opens in Japan in March. $300 million internationally is pretty much a given, unless it bombs in those two markets, while if it does well, it could reach $500 million worldwide.
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