February 5th, 2013
This week is a little confusing on the home market, as there are two weeks of new releases to deal with. (Because Christmas landed on a Tuesday, new releases were spread throughout the week, including some the following Monday.) One of the old new releases topped the DVD sales chart, as Looper sold 553,000 units and generated $9.71 million during its first full week on the home market. This is better than I was expecting.
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January 29th, 2013
New releases were even weaker than expected and none of them reached the top 30 of the DVD sales chart. The top five were identical to last week with Ted earning top spot for the third weekend in a row. It sold an additional 714,000 units generating $12.44 million in sales giving it totals of 3.42 million units / $57.68 million after three weeks of releases.
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January 25th, 2013
There were plenty of new releases to chart this week, but none of them were able to top the Blu-ray sales chart. In fact, most missed the top ten. This left Ted on top for the second weekend in a row with 558,000 units / $13.93 million giving it totals of 1.86 million units / $39.92 million after two. These are amazing Blu-ray totals for a comedy.
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January 23rd, 2013
While there were a number of new releases to reach the to 30 of the DVD sales chart this week, Ted was able to remain in first place. It sold an additional 1.04 million units while generating $18.59 million, lifting its totals to 2.71 million units / $45.24 million after two weeks of release.
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January 22nd, 2013
Like it did on the DVD sales chart, Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the Blu-ray sales chart. The film earned first place with 1.28 million units / $25.64 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 43%. That's very strong for a comedy, even one aimed at the prime demographic for Blu-ray.
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January 22nd, 2013
Ted led a trio of new releases that placed high on the DVD sales chart. It earned first place with 1.67 million units and $26.66 million, which was better than I anticipated.
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December 22nd, 2012
This year, Christmas day lands on the Tuesday, so it should come as no surprise there are not a lot of DVDs or Blu-ray coming out that day, or over the next week. (There are some films in this week's list that are definitely fillers, plus two late reviews, and I still could only get to a dozen releases.) However, there are some coming out during the week that are of interest and there are two that would be contenders for Pick of the Week in all but the busiest weeks. Justified: The Complete Third Season on DVD or Blu-ray is one such contender. However, in the end I went with Looper on DVD or Blu-ray as Pick of the Week.
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December 10th, 2012
It's a terrible week on the home market from top to bottom, but for different reasons. There are a few really big releases at the top, Ted, Ice Age: Continental Drift, The Bourne Legacy, Girls: Season One, Futurama: Volume Seven. However, I am waiting for the final screener for all of them. (I did get a DVD screener for a couple.) After that glut of good releases, there's a sharp drop-off in sales potential. That doesn't mean there aren't other releases worth picking up, but I don't expect Following to sell 100,000 units on DVD or Blu-ray. It is the best release on this week's list and the winner of the Pick of the Week honor. On a side note, there are a ton of cheap releases with the word, "Django" in the title, obviously hoping to cash in on Django Unchained. There are also a lot of releases that I would describe as porn, or at least porn-lite. I assume those two trends are unrelated.
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December 9th, 2012
I've seen all of the Ice Age films. I thought the first film was great and the second film was good, but I thought the third film was only average for a kids film. Will the franchise bounce back with Ice Age: Continental Drift? Or will the fourth film continue the decline?
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October 11th, 2012
Taken 2 was just as strong internationally as it was domestically earning first place with $55.23 million on 6,319 screens in 50 markets for a total of $66.79 million. The film had a trio of first place openings in major markets, starting with the U.K. with $11.85 million on 506 screens. It also opened in first place in France with $8.29 million on 561 screens and in Australia with $7.92 million on 246. On the other hand, the film had to settle for second place in Mexico with $2.54 million on 930 screens, in Russia with $2.00 million on 750, and in Spain with $1.24 million on 320.
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October 4th, 2012
Well... we found out why the Chinese box office numbers were extra late this week. There was an accounting error in Looper's previously reported numbers and it took time to sort things out. Instead of making $23 million to $25 million, it made about $6 million. That's actually still really good and better than it performed here, relative to the size of the two markets, but it wasn't a monster hit. The wide gap in the initial reported number and the final figure is an embarrassment, but hopefully it will spur China to build the infrastructure needed to collect box office data faster and more accurately. China might be the most important international market, but studios can't invest money into making movies aimed more at a Chinese market if they can't trust the box office numbers they get. The other numbers we had were accurate leading to a total weekend haul of $22.85 million on 2,506 million in 17 markets. It wasn't a hit in all of them, as it only managed third place in Brazil with $955,000 on 332 screens. The film is just starting its international run, so it is hard to predict where it will end up, but so far most signs are very positive.
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October 4th, 2012
It looks like International numbers will be late this week, for reasons I hinted at earlier. Looper won the weekend race, but about two thirds of its opening weekend haul came from China which is notoriously slow for getting final box office numbers. (The same used to be true of Russia, but they've gotten a lot better.) Overall it is estimated the film made $36 million, including China, with first place openings in Russia ($5.09 million on 1,010 screens) and the U.K. ($3.92 million on 449). Resident Evil: Retribution was knocked to second place after two weeks on top, but held strong with $21.1 million over the weekend for running tally of $136.9 million after three. Finally, Ice Age: Continental Drift became the highest grossing animated film at the international box office and is on pace to become the first animated film to cross $700 million. More information will come when the weekend final numbers are out.
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August 29th, 2012
The Expendables 2 remained in first place with $25.96 million on 5,672 screens in 33 markets for a total of $66.76 million. It debuted in first place in Spain with $2.45 million on 459 screens, which is significantly more than the original made in Spain when it opened. Meanwhile, it added $3.13 million on 815 screens in Russia, for a total of $14.22 million after two weeks of release in that market. This is more than its predecessor earned in total in Russia.
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August 23rd, 2012
The Expendables 2 earned first place during its international debut with $23.01 million on 3,741 screens in 19 markets. It was led by Russia where it made $8.12 million on 804 during its opening weekend. It also topped the chart in Mexico ($3.32 million on 1,249) and in Italy ($1.91 million on 379). It only managed fourth place in the U.K. with $3.12 million on 451 screens. By comparison, The Expendables earned much less in Russia, Mexico, and Italy, but much more in the U.K. Overall, the sequel has made a little more than its predecessor, but it is too soon to tell where it will end up.
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August 15th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises remained in first place with $35.1 million on 12,000 screens in 58 markets over the weekend. After nearly a month in release, it has $446.6 million internationally and $836.2 million worldwide. It became just the 33rd film to reach $800 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but has yet to open in Italy, while it should have enough left to get to $900 million with relative ease, getting to $1 billion will be a whole lot harder.
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August 8th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises held onto first place with $66.7 million on 15,400 screens in 58 markets lifting its totals to $378.1 million internationally and $732.0 million worldwide. Since last week, it cracked $300 million internationally and became just the 49th film to reach $700 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but still finished in first place in Mexico with $5.38 million on 2,370 screens and in Brazil with $4.76 million on 904 screens. In those two markets, it has two-week totals of $21.28 million and $15.28 million respectively. It was forced into second place in the U.K., but earned $6.67 million on 567 screens over the weekend for a total of $63.53 million after two. The film still has a few markets left to open in, including Italy, so it isn't quite done yet.
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August 6th, 2012
As I've mentioned before, for a film to repeat at the top of the box office, it generally just needs to earn a massive opening and to avoid a big fall during its sophomore stint. However, for a film to earn first place at the box office three times in a row, it needs help from weak new releases. This is certainly the case with The Dark Knight Rises. Granted, it did hold on better than expected this weekend, but the two new releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, were so far behind that The Dark Knight Rises would have won with ease, even if it just missed expectations. The weakness in the new releases resulted in the overall box office falling 8.5% from last week to just $123 million. More importantly, this was 27% lower than the same weekend last year. 2012 is still head of 2011's pace, but the margin has been reduced to just 4.2% at $6.80 billion to $6.53 billion. If things don't turn around soon, 2012 might relinquish its lead before the end of the year.
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises should have a relatively easy time earning first place this weekend, but the new releases are stronger than last week. There are some that think Total Recall will earn first place, but there are also some who think it won't open with as much as the original opened with, despite more than 20 years of inflation and a change in the business that favors bigger opening weekends. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days is playing counter-programming and while there's not a lot of direct competition in theaters, it is still aiming for a midlevel hit, and no more. Last year, Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened with more than $54 million and there's really no chance that will be replicated this weekend and August will very likely start out on a losing note.
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August 2nd, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises overall numbers are still limited to studio estimates, but it was clearly the best film of the weekend with $126.2 million on 17,200 screens in 57 markets for a total of $252.0 million internationally and $539.1 million worldwide. Its best new market was France, where it made $10.91 million on 892 screens. It also dominated the box office in Mexico with $9.75 million on 2,765 screens and in Germany with $9.40 million on 718 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.40 million. Russia was close behind with $8.33 million on 1,312 screens. The film also earned first place in Brazil, but with $6.70 million on 944, which is a little more subdued, while it missed top spot in Japan with $4.76 million on 546 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.82 million. The film remained in first place in the U.K. with $11.42 million on 589 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $47.96 million. It also remained champion in Australia with $7.77 million on 628 screens over the weekend for a total of $28.00 million after two. On the other hand, it was pushed into second place in South Korea with $5.93 million on 807 screens over the weekend for a total of $27.67 million after two. So far, The Dark Knight Rises has been about on par with Ice Age: Continental Drift, maybe a little behind that film's pace, and it is on track to earn close to $600 million internationally and about $1 billion worldwide. This is a fantastic result, but still below expectations.
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July 30th, 2012
That was a pretty bad week. The Dark Knight Rises fell faster than most people were expecting while The Watch flopped. Step Up Revolution came very close to matching expectations, but it was expected to struggle, so that's not saying much. Overall, the box office fell 42% from last week to $134 million, which was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. The swings we've seen at the box office are erratic, to be polite, but at least 2012 remains ahead of 2011, even if the margin shrunk to 5.5% at $6.61 billion to $6.27 billion.
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July 26th, 2012
There's little doubt that The Dark Knight Rises will repeat as the box office champion this weekend. There are some questions regarding how much it will dominate the box office. Will it continue to match The Dark Knight's pace? Will it show the same legs as The Avengers did earlier this summer? Or will it collapse like Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II did? There are also a few, very few, asking questions about The Watch and Step Up Revolution. Both films are opening wide, but neither film looks like it will be able to get anywhere beyond a midlevel hit and they are very unlikely to match last year's two wide releases, Cowboys and Aliens and The Smurfs. Fortunately, The Dark Knight Rises should earn enough to ensure a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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July 26th, 2012
Some international numbers were late in reporting, others are still limited to studio estimates, but it is clear which film came out on top. The Dark Knight Rises only opened in 17 markets, but that was still enough to earn first place during its first weekend in international release. It managed $88 million on 7,173 screens in those 17 markets, with the U.K. leading the way with $22.23 million on 594 screens. South Korea was next with $15.65 million on 1,210 (including $12.90 million over the weekend proper), while Australia was right behind with $15.50 million on 628. It was not quite as potent in Spain, but it still earned first place with $4.17 million on 624 screens. The film will more than triple its market count this coming weekend with debuts in France, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, and many smaller markets, so it should rise even further.
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July 23rd, 2012
There was tragedy over the weekend at a midnight showing of The Dark Knight Rises, which is clearly a more important story than any box office numbers. However, we try to avoid politics here, and try to stick with the numbers, but the two stories might be hard to untangle. As expected, The Dark Knight Rises led the box office, but with a more subdued opening. It failed to match The Avengers's opening from earlier in the summer, but was the biggest from the franchise. It helped propel the overall box office to $230 million, which was 39% higher than last weekend and 21% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2012 now leads 2011 by 6.7% at $6.37 billion to $5.96 billion.
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July 19th, 2012
The Dark Knight Rises looks to crush the competition at the box office this weekend. No one is wondering if it will be the number one film this weekend. People are wondering if it will have the number one opening of all time. At the beginning the year, I would have put the odds of that happening at about 80%. However, after The Avengers opened with more than $200 million, the chance of The Dark Knight Rises breaking that record is now very slim. It has a better shot at earning more than the entire box office this weekend last year, or about $191 million. The odds of 2012 winning in the year-over-year comparison is nearly 100%.
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July 18th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift returned to top spot with $97.56 million on 14,354 screens in 64 markets for totals of $339.21 million internationally and $385.84 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in the U.K. with $15.66 million on 522 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $20.27 million, including previews. It was just as powerful in Russia with $16.86 million on 2,090 screens. The film grew by 9% in Germany to $12.16 million on 825 screens over the weekend for a total of $31.20 million after two weeks of release. The film doesn't have a lot of markets left to open in, but it has already made enough to pay for its production budget and likely has covered a large chunk of its P&A budget.
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July 18th, 2012
The winners of our Rising Water contest were determined and they are...
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July 17th, 2012
One of two Obama related films topped the per theater chart this past weekend. 2016 earned $31,610 in its lone theater, which suggests potential to earn some measure of mainstream success; however, documentaries rarely get too far. The Imposter earned $22,379, also in one theater. This also suggests some potential, but again, it is a documentary. Easy Money earned an average of $12,342 in two theaters, while Ice Age: Continental Drift was right behind with an average of $12,015.
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July 16th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift opened on the low end of expectations. The rest of the top five did better than predicted, but that wasn't enough to compensate and the overall box office fell 16% from last weekend to $165 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, and less than Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II opened with. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, even if the margin is down to 6.6% at $6.05 billion to $5.68 million. The box office should bounce back next weekend with the release of The Dark Knight Rises.
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July 15th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift will deliver a very solid $46 million over the weekend, according to Fox's Sunday morning estimate. While that's down quite a bit from the franchise's high point, The Meltdown's $68 million in 2006, it is up from the $41.7 million debut of Dawn of the Dinosaurs. If word-of-mouth is decent enough, the film should enjoy four weeks of relatively light direct competition, and might become the first title from the franchise to top $200 million domestically. Even more encouragingly for Fox, it's living up to the gigantic performances of its predecessors internationally, having already topped $200 million and broken a number of national records. The franchise as a whole has now cruised past $2 billion in global box office receipts and stands behind only Shrek among animated franchises.
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July 12th, 2012
This weekend, Ice Age: Continental Drift has the weekend to itself, at least as far as new wide releases goes. It will still have to deal with holdovers, but The Amazing Spider-Man will likely be in a distant second place. Last year, the number one release was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, which opened with a then record $169.19 million. Ice Age won't match that. In fact, there's a chance Ice Age won't make that much during its entire run. 2012 box office is going to take a tumble this weekend.
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July 11th, 2012
After a narrow opening last weekend, The Amazing Spider-Man expanded worldwide this weekend taking first place with $127.49 million on 18,343 screens in 74 markets for an early total of $200.86 million internationally and $337.89 million worldwide. If it didn't make another dollar at the box office, it would still likely break even early in its home market run. The film's biggest opening was in the U.K. where it dominated the box office with $17.19 million on 552 screens. That is like opening with about $100 million here.
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July 8th, 2012
The Amazing Spider-Man has continued its strong performance through the weekend, adding another $65 million to the $75 million it accumulated through Thursday. Its $140 million total is ahead of Sony's pre-release prediction, but mostly in line with independent analysis. With only Ice Age: Continental Drift opening next weekend, it will have a clear couple of weeks to pick up the teenage crowd and something over $200 million, before being blown away by The Dark Knight Rises on July 20. The weekend's other two debutantes are less amazing.
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July 6th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift broke records during its international debut, which certainly improves its chances here. Additionally, it has the weekend box office to itself, so it could be the biggest animated hit of the year. It is also the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ice Age: Continental Drift .
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of iCarly: Season Four on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Backyardigans: We Arrrr Pirates! on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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July 5th, 2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift started its international run a little earlier than its domestic run, and if this is any indication, its box office chances here are fantastic. The film pulled in $80.31 million on 9,653 screens in 35 markets. This includes $12.23 million on 2,617 screens over the weekend in Mexico for a total opening there of $13.87 million, which was the third biggest opening of all time in that market. It also made $11.31 million on 841 screens in France, which was the biggest opening of the year. The film dominated Brazil with $6.56 million on 1,004. Its opening in Australia was not quite as strong with $5.02 million on 490 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.43 million, but that's still equivalent to $60 million here, given the relative size of the two markets. It broke the record for biggest opening in Argentina at $4.1 million on 284 screens, and did the same in a number of smaller Latin American markets ($3.2 million on 296 in Colombia, $3.1 million on 252 in Peru, etc.). I think its chances of reaching $1 billion worldwide are better than I previously thought.
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July 1st, 2012
June was not a good month. Of the twelve films that opened wide last month, only four beat expectations by any serious margin, while there were seven that we know will fail to match expectations and one that's too close to call. That's a really bad record. Granted, 2012 still has a huge advantage over 2011, but it did shrink over the month of June. Looking forward to July, we get mixed signals. On the one hand, last July there were two monster hits, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which I'm considering a July film even though it opened on June 29th, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2. Those two films combined earned more than $700 million. This time around the only guaranteed monster hit is The Dark Knight Rises and I don't think there are many analysts bullish enough to think it will make $700 million by itself. That's not to say analysts aren't bullish on the film's chances. Some think it will top The Avengers at the box office. If it fails to reach $500 million, it would be seen as a disappointment. On the other hand, last year there were four other films that topped $100 million, while this year there are only six other films, period, and only two of those, The Amazing Spider-man and Ice Age: Continental Drift, are sure things to hit $100 million. There is a chance The Dark Knight Rises will earn more than the rest of the wide releases earn combined. And if this movie bombs, there's little hope for the rest of the month. But that won't happen, right?
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