Weekend estimates: Free Guy’s great start makes up for a generally weak market

August 15th, 2021

An impressive $28.4-million opening for Free Guy will more than make up for weakness in the rest of the market to give us a welcome “up” weekend at the box office. Free Guy’s start beats The Suicide Squad’s debut last weekend, which will undoubtedly add fuel to the debate on the viability of releasing major films simultaneously in theaters and on streaming platforms—Free Guy gets a 45-day window before it lands exclusively on Disney+, while The Suicide Squad is already playing on HBO Max. More...

Weekend estimates: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard debuts with $11.675 million

June 20th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will pull off a relatively easy win at the box office this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting it will earn $11.675 million from Friday to Sunday for a five-day opening a shade over $17 million. That’s a decent start for an action comedy, which our model says should be doing about $8 million at the moment, but it’s a shade behind our Friday prediction, which projected $13.6 million based on its solid $3.9 million opening day. All-in-all, that adds up to a glass-half-full/empty weekend at the box office. More...

Weekend predictions: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard favorite to win weekend

June 18th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard looks like it should win the weekend fairly comfortably based on its opening day figures from Wednesday and the track record of action comedies that opened mid-week. Nothing is assured in the topsy-turvy world of 2021, but it would take a steep dive from the newcomer and an unexpectedly strong hold by A Quiet Place: Part II to see a different outcome.

Here’s what our model has to say this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place: Part II has the edge in four-way race

June 13th, 2021

We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking.

However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though. More...

The Hitman’s Bodyguard’s Wife trailer

June 10th, 2021

Action comedy starring Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, and Salma Hayek opens in theaters on June 16. Full movie details…

The world’s most lethal odd couple—bodyguard Michael Bryce and hitman Darius Kincaid—are back on another life-threatening mission. Still unlicensed and under scrutiny, Bryce is forced into action by Darius’s even more volatile wife, the infamous international con artist Sonia Kincaid. As Bryce is driven over the edge by his two most dangerous protectees, the trio get in over their heads in a global plot and soon find that they are all that stand between Europe and a vengeful and powerful madman. Joining in the fun and deadly mayhem is Morgan Freeman as… well, you’ll have to see. More...