November 25th, 2014
It is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, which means there are only a few days before Black Friday, which is one of the busiest shopping days of the season. At first glance, this might seem like a great day to release a DVD or Blu-ray; however, the massive sales will instead overshadow anything that comes out this week. This explains why there are so few interesting releases. The biggest release of the week is The Expendables 3 on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack, but it might be so bad it killed the franchise. The best release is Mystery Science Theater 3000: The Turkey Day Collection (XXXI), which is the Pick of the Week. We also have a Puck of the Week for Rhymes for Young Ghouls on DVD, a Canadian film that deserves a wider audience.
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September 18th, 2014
There are a trio of new wide releases this week, led by The Maze Runner, which is expected to top the box office chart and it is also currently earning the best reviews, although it is so close that it could change with a single new negative review. (It did change about five minutes after writing that, as it fell to second place.) The buzz for A Walk Among the Tombstones hasn't grown like I thought it would, but it still looks on pace to become a midlevel hit. On the other hand, This is Where I Leave You's chances are weakening and it looks like it won't finish in the top three. There is some good news. This weekend last year, Prisoners was the only film to earn more than $20 million, while Insidious Chapter 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have five films earning more than $10 million and the number one film could earn more than $30 million.
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August 26th, 2014
Of the three wide releases, none topped expectations and only If I Stay did decent business at the box office. It only managed third place, but it did have the best per theater average in the top twenty. This left holdovers atop of the box office chart with Guardians of the Galaxy returning to first place and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles slipping to second place. Overall, the box office was down 20% from last weekend to $115 million. However, this was 4.7% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the more important metric. Unfortunately, 2014 is still behind 2013 by a large margin of $330 million or 4.7% at $6.91 billion to $7.24 billion.
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August 21st, 2014
Last weekend, there were three wide releases, but only one of them did relatively well. This weekend, there are also three wide releases and hopefully they will perform better at the box office. There are some positive signs and some analysts think both Sin City: A Dame To Kill For and If I Stay will open with more than $20 million while When the Game Stands Tall could make more than $10 million. That's on the high side. On the low side, none of the new releases will open in first place and Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will be in a battle for first and second place. That said, this weekend last year, none of the three wide releases earned more than $10 million during the weekend and only two films in total reached that mark over the weekend. Even low-end expectations for this year are more bullish than that, so 2014 should continue its winning streak in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 19th, 2014
Only one of the three wide releases this past weekend did reasonably well over the weekend. Despite earning reviews that were flirting with single-digits, Let's Be Cops was the best of the new releases this weekend earning an acceptable opening. On the other hand, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy held on well earning first and second places over the weekend. The overall box office plummeted from last weekend down 23% to $143 million, but this is still 2.5% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is still behind 2013, even though the gap shrunk a little bit at 4.5% or $6.75 billion to $7.07 billion.
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August 17th, 2014
Three lackluster debuts have allowed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy to keep the top two spots at the box office this weekend. Turtles will be down a fairly modest 57% in its second weekend for $28.4 million, and $117.6 million in total after two weekends. Guardians will be down 41% in its third weekend for a total of $222 million, and will remain on track to become the highest-grossing film of the Summer. Things look much less pretty for the openers.
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August 14th, 2014
The strong opening by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles allowed summer to be extended one more weekend. This week three films look to avoid flopping, thus signaling the end of summer, but in order to do so, they must defy critics. The Expendables 3 is the biggest of the three films opening this weekend, but the franchise appears to be on a downward trajectory. Let's Be Cops opened on Wednesday, but with simply awful reviews, the word-of-mouth could kill it by the time the weekend starts. Finally, The Giver is the latest Young Adult adaptation, but this genre has produced more flops than even midlevel hits. Frankly, the most interesting aspect of the weekend box office will likely be milestones reached by Guardians of the Galaxy and other movies, rather than the new releases. This weekend last year was also arguably the the end of summer. The Butler was the only movie to make more than $20 million, while three of the four wide releases opened in fifth place or weaker. It looks like 2014 will continue its winning streak.
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August 1st, 2014
July was... well... let's just pretend it didn't happen. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes did well, but week after week 2014 fell further behind 2013 in the year-to-date comparison. At the moment, we are roughly $400 million behind last year's pace and while I don't think August will continue the losing streak, there's really no chance August will put a dent in that number. It looks more and more likely that Guardians of the Galaxy will be a hit, especially given its early reviews, but it could be the last $100 million hit till October, if the bad buzz surrounding Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles turns into bad ticket sales. Last August there were two films that reached $100 million, plus two others that came close. This August might match that, while the biggest film this year should top the biggest film from last year. I think the slump 2014 is suffering through will end the first weekend and overall I think it will cut the deficit a little bit. That said, summer 2014 will still end as one of the worst recent summers at the box office.
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