April 19th, 2016
The biggest release on this week's list is The Revenant. There are no other releases that come close to that film's box office run and / or Awards Season run. However, personally I think it is well overrated and would be considered a merely good film if it weren't for its reputation for being a difficult shoot. As for the Pick of the Week, there were only a couple of contenders. In the end, Drunk Stoned Brilliant Dead on Blu-ray was the clear choice.
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April 1st, 2016
God's Not Dead 2 started its box office run with $400,000 during its Thursday previews. This is a little lower than Risen ($425,000) and The Young Messiah ($475,000), but faith-based films are unpredictable enough that we can't use this result to make any clear predictions going forward. Perhaps predictions were a little generous and $11 million is more likely. We will know by this time tomorrow.
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March 11th, 2016
10 Cloverfield Lane had the best results during its Thursday previews with $1.8 million in 2,500 theaters. This is the same as Insidious: Chapter 3 managed last year during its previews. That film opened with $22.69 million over the full weekend, which is a good target for 10 Cloverfield Lane to aim for. With amazing reviews, $25 million is within reach. We will know more tomorrow when we get Friday's estimates.
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February 8th, 2016
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Super Bowl weekend was not a good weekend at the box office. The competition usually takes its toll at the box office, but this year it was particularly bad. Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way with just $21.24 million, while Hail, Caesar! was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. In fact, the weekend was so bad that Star Wars: The Force Awakens remained in third place during its eighth weekend of release. The overall box office took a massive hit, down 31% to just $95 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, but miraculously, 2016 maintained its lead over 2015, by the tiniest of margins, $1.34 billion to $1.33 billion. With a difference of 0.5% or $6 million, the lead will likely disappear during the week, but 2016 should get it back when Deadpool debuts this Friday.
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February 2nd, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it.
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January 31st, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 is making a solid start domestically this weekend with Fox projecting a $41 million debut. That’s the weakest start for any film in the franchise, behind the $47.7 million opening of Kung Fu Panda 2, and Kung Fu Panda’s $60.2 million back in 2008. The downward trend is in large part explained by the January release of the third movie, compared to June and May for the previous two. In fact, it still technically has a shot at having the best first weekend for a film in January, a record currently held by Ride Along with $41.5 million, although American Sniper really has bragging rights, with $89.3 million when it expanded wide last year. More importantly, Kung Fu Panda 3 opened with an estimated $57 million in China, a record for an animated film in the territory, and $75 million internationally.
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January 30th, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 topped the chart on Friday with $10.5 million. There are not a lot of animated films that open this time of year, so it is hard to find a good comparison. If the film has the same internal multiplier as The LEGO Movie, then it will earn $42.4 million over the weekend, which would be a record opening for January. However, that movie was an original film, while this is the third film in its franchise. That will probably hurt it enough that $40 million is a more likely number. That's still a good opening, plus it is earning much more in China ($40.34 million after just two days of release) so there’s little reason to worry about its financial prospects.
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January 29th, 2016
Kids movies rarely have "midnight" shows and that was the case with Kung Fu Panda 3. This left The Finest Hours with the perfect opportunity to grab some of the spotlight. It only managed $375,000 during its previews, which is $200,000 less than In the Heart of the Sea managed late last year. It is closer to the $400,000 Selma earned before its wide expansion. The two films do have similar release dates and are based on real life events, but an action film should do better than a drama when it comes to previews. Even if we are being generous, $12 million looks like the high end for the weekend and that's terrible compared to its $85 million production budget. Less then $10 million is just as likely and that could result in someone losing their job.
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January 28th, 2016
There are three, three and a half, wide releases coming out this week. (I've seen reports that Jane Got a Gun is opening in 600 to 1,200 theaters. Even the high end will likely keep it out of the top ten.) Of the three truly wide releases, only Kung Fu Panda 3 is expected to be a significant hit. In fact, it will likely earn more than the rest of the top five combined. On the other hand, The Finest Hours will likely bomb compared to its $85 million production budget, while Fifty Shades of Black will be a financial hit only because its production budget is very low. This means for Kung Fu Panda 3 the only real competition is from last year, when American Sniper earned $30.66 million. Kung Fu Panda 3 should top that by about $20 million. Additionally, no other film earned more than $10 million last year, while this year there could be five films in the top five reaching that mark. 2016 should bounce back in the year-over-year comparison after two soft weeks.
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January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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