April 20th, 2012
The winners of our Do Go Into the Woods contest were determined and they are...
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April 6th, 2012
There are three films opening wide next week and I think The Cabin in the Woods will be the biggest hit. I hope The Cabin in the Woods will be the biggest hit. It will certainly earn better reviews than Lockout or The Three Stoogers will. Regardless if I'm right, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Cabin in the Woods.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Descendants on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Descendants on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 4th, 2012
The winners of our Fairest Prizes of Them All contest were determined and they are...
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April 3rd, 2012
New releases dominated the DVD sales chart earning the top three spots and five of the top ten. Leading the way was The Muppets with 884,000 units / $15.05 million. This is a little weaker than I would like, but perhaps it performed better on Blu-ray. I'm not overly optimistic, because live action kids movies tend to struggle on high definition.
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March 28th, 2012
The Adventures of Tintin led all new releases and took top spot on the Blu-ray sales chart. It sold 504,000 units and generated $11.09 million in opening week sales. This represents an opening Blu-ray share of very nearly 50%, which is an excellent start for a kids film.
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March 27th, 2012
Like last week, new releases dominated the DVD sales chart this week with three new releases topping the chart. The best of the best was Happy Feet Two with 896,000 units / $13.43 million during its first week on the home market. The film struggled at the box office, so this start on the home market is better than expected.
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March 21st, 2012
As it was on the DVD sales chart, there was a battle for first place on the Blu-ray sales chart between two new releases. Immortals beat Game of Thrones: Season Two in terms of units, 927,000 units to 680,000 units. However, Game comes out ahead in terms of revenue at $29.89 million to $21.31 million. As far as the two releases opening week Blu-ray share, Immortals managed 59% while Game earned 57%. Both of those results are fantastic.
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March 20th, 2012
It's another week were there are a lot of Awards Season players hitting the home market and a lot of screeners that are late. There are a trio of films that are high on the list of contenders for Pick of the Week. These include two serious drama / thrillers: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Blu-ray Combo Pack and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo on Blu-ray. However, in the end, I went with the extreme other end of the serious scale with The Muppets's Wocka Wocka Value Pack
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March 13th, 2012
There are two themes this week. The first is Awards Season. There are no fewer than half a dozen Award Season players on this week's list, although one was a late review. Speaking of late reviews, that's the other theme on this week's list, as there are no fewer than eight releases on this week's list where I'm waiting for the screener to arrive. (This includes Wizards which arrived on Monday; however, screeners need to arrive by Friday if I'm to get the review done on time.) Unfortunately, there's a lot of crossover among these two groups and a few Pick of the Week candidates are late. For instance, My Week with Marilyn and Melancholia fit into both groups. Other screeners I'm waiting for that could be Pick of the Week are Wallace & Gromit: World of Invention and the aforementioned Wizards: 35th Anniversary Blu-ray, while The Guild: Season Five was up for that honor as well. However, in the end I went with The Descendants on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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March 12th, 2012
From the minute Alexander Payne decided to work on an adaptation of Kaui Hart Hemmings' novel, The Descendants was an Awards Season favorite. His previous three films each earned at least one Oscar nomination and he won an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay for Sideways. Will this film live up to his career average? Is it really his best, as many are claiming?
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March 7th, 2012
Dr. Seuss' The Lorax was surprisingly strong during its opening and that helped it win the race on top of the per theater chart with an average of $18,830. The only other two films in the $10,000 club, Being Flynn and Boy, were neck-and-neck at $10,998 and $10,622 respectively.
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February 26th, 2012
It's Oscars night. (Actually, it's 3:43 in the morning as I'm typing this, but I thought I would get a jump on the celebration.) As I do every year, I will follow the announcements live and update our list of Oscar winners. However, this year I will be doing it a little differently and the list of nominees below will include the favorites as picked by our readers in Italics and as picked by me in Bold. So you can watch live and tell when I'm out of the running for our Oscar contest. (I figure it will take at least 17 wins out of 24 to come out on top. Maybe even 18 or 19 wins.) So, will The Artist be the big winner tonight as our readers predict? Or will Hugo score the upset? Stay tuned to fine out.
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February 26th, 2012
While the Independent Spirit Award unofficially kick off Awards Season with their nominations, they are one of the last to hand out their actual awards, which they did on Saturday. As it has most of the time, The Artist led the way by earning four wins out of the five categories it was nominated it. So which one did it lose? And what were the other winners?
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February 23rd, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. This year there were nine nominees, but not all of them really have a shot at winning. (One of the nominations generated more outrage than anything else.) Is there a favorite? And are there any that have a legitimate shot at the upset?
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February 23rd, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the Best Director, which is one of the closer races, at least among the high prestige categories, with the two leading contenders splitting previous major awards.
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February 22nd, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay. This is not a particularly close race with one obvious favorite and a couple that are long shots with a shot.
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February 22nd, 2012
No films topped $10,000 on the per theaters chart; in fact, none of them come close. The Vow came closest with an average of $7,798. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance was the best new release at an average of $6,968, while the best new limited release was Undefeated at $6,633.
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February 19th, 2012
The final major guild, the WGA, handed their awards out tonight. Due to rule differences, they are not as useful when it comes to predicting the Oscars this year as they are in some years, winning is still a good omen. So who won and what does that say about their chances?
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February 16th, 2012
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, and up next is Best Actor. This category is actually competitive with two actors in a relatively close race for the top.
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February 14th, 2012
Chico and Rita started its run on top of the per theater chart with $21,400 in one theater. Given its reviews and its Oscar nomination, it should have no trouble expanding at least somewhat. The overall number one film, The Vow, was in second place on the per theater chart with an average of $13,929. Safe House was close behind with $12,880. It's not too common for wide releases to earn more than $10,000 on the per theater chart at this time of year, so to have two of them do so on the same weekend is doubly impressive. The final film in the $10,000 club was Rampart with an average of $12,089. Like Chico and Rita it should expand for similar reasons. (I.E. Strong reviews and major nominations.)
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February 8th, 2012
Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol has reached two milestones since last week, reaching $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. It added $24.31 million on 6,259 screens in 51 markets over the weekend and now has $420.83 million internationally and $626.03 million worldwide. Of its weekend haul, $20 million came from China, which was $7 million more than last week's opening.
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February 8th, 2012
An Inconsistent Truth repeated on top of the per theater chart with $12,176 in one theater. However, while it won, it fell more than 40%, which is closer to a wide release than a limited release. W.E. was very close behind with an average of $11,769 in four theaters.
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February 5th, 2012
The industry's healthy start to 2012 will continue this weekend thanks to two more good opening weekends. Chronicle is currently favorite to win the weekend, with Fox predicting a $22 million opening. CBS Films is pegging The Woman in Black at $21 million (a record for the fledgling studio). Both figures are predicated on historical models for SuperBowl Sunday, which can be a difficult day to predict, so the final order between the two could yet switch, although Chronicle is heavily favored to win at this point. Overall box office will be up about 35% from last year, although that reflects the very weak start to 2011. This weekend looks as though it will be about average for a SuperBowl weekend overall.
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February 1st, 2012
It was a good weekend for Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol. It crossed $200 million domestically and jumped back to first place on the international chart with $25.23 million on 6,411 screens in 56 markets. It now has $369.37 million internationally and $571.93 million worldwide, which is the best in the franchise. The film earned first place with $12.7 million on 3000 screens in China, but had to settle for second place in Italy with $3.01 million on 575. It will quickly cross $600 million worldwide, even though it has no more major markets left to open in.
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January 31st, 2012
There was only one film to reach the $10,000 mark on the per theater chart this past weekend. An Inconsistant Truth opened with $20,733 in its lone theater, but with still no reviews, its long term chances are still unknown. The phrase, "preaching to the choir" does spring to mind.
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January 29th, 2012
The SAG awards were announced on Sunday night, and there were a couple surprises among the theatrical categories. Arguably the biggest surprise of the night was the overall strength of The Help, which earned three wins and it was the only film to win more than once. As for the rest of the winners...
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January 29th, 2012
The industry will enjoy another weekend of increased revenue compared to last year, based on studio estimates released on Sunday, with The Grey starting out on the high end of expectations with $20 million, according to Open Road -- comfortably beating the $9.3 million of their previous film, The Killer Elite. In third place, One for the Money will post a surprisingly strong $11.75 million, according to Lionsgate, which will get to claim bragging rights over its new division Summit Entertainment, which is predicting $8.25 million for its new release, Man on a Ledge. The two films would most likely have ended up on different weekends if the combined studio had have had longer to rearrange their schedules.
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January 25th, 2012
There were only three films this past weekend to reach the $10,000 mark on the per theater average, and none of them were new releases. Pina finally expanded playing in ten theaters, while it climbed to the top of the per theater average with $13,667. It should hit its first major milestone soon. A Separation doubled its theater count and saw its per theater average grow to $12,986. It too should reach its first milestone sooner rather than later. The final member of the $10,000 club was We Need to Talk About Kevin with an average of $10,530 in seven theaters. The best new release of the week was Crazy Horse with $7,963 in its lone theater. However, it was a Wednesday release and if you include its first two days of release, it earned $12,336. If it were a Friday release, it likely would have reached the $10,000 market.
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January 24th, 2012
Yesterday was one of the biggest days during Awards Season as The Oscar nominations were announced in the morning. It was a two horse race for top spot as far as the big winners are concerned. Hugo earned the most nominations with eleven, while The Artist was right behind with ten. However, one could argue The Artist is the bigger winner, as more of its nominations were in the more prestigious categories.
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January 22nd, 2012
Producers Guild of America handed out the winners tonight and instead of solidifying Oscar prospects, they might have opened things up a bit more. At least in my mind there are more questions than answers after tonight. So what nominees took home the awards?
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January 22nd, 2012
A solid $25.4 million projected opening for Underworld: Awakening this weekend, backed by a better-than-expected $19.1 million for Red Tails will help give the industry a healthy start to 2012. Based on studio estimates released on Sunday, business this weekend should be up about 30% from the same weekend last year, and 2012 is currently running about 11% ahead of 2011. Obviously there's a long way to go, but early momentum is always useful.
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January 18th, 2012
It was a busy week on the per theater chart with five films in the $10,000 club; however, all but one of those films were holdovers. Leading the way was We Need to Talk About Kevin, which returned to theaters after its week-long Oscar qualification run. It earned an average of $21,123 in two theaters. Pina doubled its theater count, but remained strong in second place with an average of $20,740 in six theaters. Even if it doesn't expand significantly, it will reach some major milestones. Despite mixed reviews, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is earning very strong legs. This past weekend it dipped just 8% while earning an average of $15,172 in six theaters. It expands wide on Friday and it should do quite well. The only new release of the week to reach the $10,000 club was Sophomore, which opened with an estimated $13,000 in its lone theater. Finally, we get to A Separation, which earned an average of $11,977 in six theaters. Hopefully it will expand to take advantage of is success thus far.
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January 16th, 2012
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globes last night, and after an Awards Season most notable for the lack of surprises, there were not a lot of surprises either. In fact, the biggest storyline of the night was how many different movies earned wins. The Artist led the way with just three, while The Descendents was the only other film to win more than once.
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January 12th, 2012
After previously announcing Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, the Directors Guild of America announced the nominations for the Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary category. This is the final major award we track before the Oscars and, at this point, there are definitely favorites for the big night.
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January 5th, 2012
The latest round of major nominations were released today with the WGA nominations. Like much of the rest of the previous announcements, the only surprise was the lack of surprises. Four of the five Original Screenplays earned other nominations in that category or other guild nominations. That number rises to five out of five for Adapted Screenplays. There's little doubt about what films are Oscar contenders at this point. The Documentary films category is a little more contentious, but it usually is.
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January 4th, 2012
The nominees for this year's Producers Guild of America were announced and there were not a lot of surprises. For instance, nine of the ten nominees for Theatrical Motion Pictures also earned Golden Globe Nominations for either Best Drama or Best Musical / Comedy. Four of the five Animated films also did the same. It does make the Awards Season picture a lot clearer going forward, but it makes coming up with something to say much harder.
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January 4th, 2012
Iron Lady led a group of six films in the $10,000 earning a per theater average of $55,102. This is better than expected and shows the Oscar buzz for Meryl Streep is overcoming the middling overall reviews. Last week's winner, Pina, remained strong with an average of $23,874 in three theaters. I expect it will expand somewhat and earn a small measure of mainstream success. A Separation opened with an average of $19,827 in three theaters and with possible Oscar glory, it continues to do well. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has already earned a significant measure of mainstream success and with an average of $19,043 in 55 theaters this past weekend, it had its best weekend yet. It did cost $21 million to make, so it will need to continue to do well for quite some time before it makes profitability likely. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close's first full weekend went well earning an average of $18,463 in three theaters. It has a shot at expanding wide in a couple weeks, assuming it holds on relatively well over the next couple weeks. The final film in the $10,000 club was Pariah, which earned an average of $12,145 in four theaters. It earned just over $100,000 from Wednesday through Monday.
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January 1st, 2012
Mission: Impossible will enjoy another weekend at the top of the chart, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, and 2011 will end on a small uptick from 2010, but a lackluster Holiday Season overall will cap a year where the total box office will fall around 3% and ticket sales will be down 4%, making the year as a whole the worst for ticket sales since 1995 (full historical analysis here).
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December 20th, 2011
It was a busy week on the per theater chart with several films in the $10,000 club. These were led by Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol with $30,083, but given its unusual opening, it's hard to judge this start. (More on its IMAX run later today.) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy expanded from four to sixteen theaters, but remained potent with an average of $28,549. Some measure of mainstream success is guaranteed, even if it is failing to live up to expectations during Awards Season. On the other hand, The Artist is starting to clean up during Awards Season and this is helping its per theater average remain strong at $16,904. It should have no trouble expanding some more, even if the nature of the film will prevent it from becoming a hit in Megaplexes. Carnage debuted with an average of $15,959 in five theaters, which is disappointing given its pedigree. The overall box office leader, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,704.
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December 16th, 2011
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the Awards Season picture started to look a whole lot clearer. The Artist led the way with six nominations, while The Descendents and The Help were right behind with five apiece.
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December 15th, 2011
The SAG nominations were handed out this week, and while The Help led the way with four nods, it wasn't the only film that earned multiple nominations.
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December 14th, 2011
Three new releases were able to reached the $10,000 mark on the per theater chart, while there were three holdovers that were able to join them. Leading the way was Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy with an outstanding average of $77,641 in four theaters. Young Adult opened with nearly the same total, but was playing in eight theaters giving it an average of $38,783. We Need to Talk About Kevin earned $24,587 in one theater during its Oscar qualifying run. A Dangerous Method spent its third weekend in the $10,000 club with an average of $19,234 in four theaters. However, it has seen in per theater average cut by more than half since its opening, and it has yet to expand. The Artist has also seen its per theater average fall, but it expanded its theater count to sixteen this past weekend and still earned an average of $18,460. It is already an art house success and will soon start earning some measure of mainstream success. Shame more than doubled its theater count, but hung onto a spot in the $10,000 club with an average of $13,496 in 21 theaters.
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December 6th, 2011
We are right in the prime of Awards Season and over the weekend there were three films earning very impressive per theater averages and two of those films were recently given Independent Spirit Award Nominations. Leading the way for the second weekend in a row was The Artist with an average of $35,211 in six theaters. It is still barely in theaters, but it is already halfway to $1 million. Being a silent film will likely keep the film from expanding truly wide, but it should grab some measure of mainstream success. Shame debuted in second place with an average of $34,952 in ten theaters. It is rare for an NC-17 film to do this well. Rounding out the $10,000 club was A Dangerous Method placed third with an average of $29,894, while still playing in four theaters.
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December 1st, 2011
There are no wide releases opening this week, but that doesn't mean there definitely won't be a change at the top of the box office. The Fangirl Factor for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will likely eat away at its box office much more than the three family films, and this could leave The Muppets on top over the weekend. This is what happened last year with Tangled. Unfortunately for this year, Tangled started out much better and even if The Muppets holds on better as a percentage of its opening, that likely won't be enough to for the total box office to earn a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 30th, 2011
As it does every year, Independent Spirit Award nominations kick off the unofficial start of Awards Season. This year there were two films that topped the list of nominations: The Artist and Take Shelter. Both of those films earned five nominations, but they weren't the only films to be singled out.
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November 30th, 2011
The top film on the per theater chart was a silent film, The Artist, which was amazing, earning more than $200,000 in just four theaters for an average of $51,220. A Dangerous Method was also very strong on the per theater chart earning an average of $41,988, also in four theaters. Last week's winner, The Descendants, expanded into nearly 400 theaters, but still managed an average of $18,835. Finally, the overall box office leader, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1, managed an average of $10,252.
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November 28th, 2011
November ended the same way it began, on a losing note. Of the three wide releases, only The Muppets really made an impact at the box office. Hugo was able to top expectations and it was the only film in the top five to do so, but it was also the smallest of the three new releases in the top five. This meant the overall box office was down 26% from last weekend to $164 million. That was behind last year's haul by 9% leaving 2011 further behind last year's pace. At the moment, the gap is close to 4% at $9.35 billion to $9.71 billion.
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November 27th, 2011
In spite of a hefty 70% weekend-to-weekend decline, Breaking Dawn, Part 1 will run out an easy winner at the box office over Thanksgiving, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $42 million Friday-Sunday performance is exactly in line with the $42 million earned by New Moon during its Thanksgiving weekend, but it is currently running about $9 million behind the second film in the franchise, suggesting a total gross of around $285 million. A bevy of family-friendly new releases will be unable to come all that close to the vampire film, although all studios involved are projecting strong business for the films in question throughout the Holiday Season.
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November 23rd, 2011
There were only two films that were able to crack the $10,000 club this weekend, but they were both huge hits. The Descendants opened with more than $1 million in 29 theaters, for an average of $41,038. Add in the film's reviews and its Awards Season buzz and there's little doubt that the film will expand wide. Speaking of wide, the only other film in the $10,000 club was The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1. The overall box office leader took in $138 million in 4,061 theaters, for an average of $34,012.
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November 20th, 2011
Twilight-mania continues this weekend at the box office, as The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 is set to post a $139.5 million opening, according to Summit's Sunday estimate. That will be the fifth-biggest weekend in history, just behind The Twilight Saga: New Moon, which remains the best in the franchise with a $142.8 million debut, which was also posted the weekend before Thanksgiving, in 2009. Breaking Dawn's Friday performance of $72 million is the third-best day in history, also just a fraction behind New Moon's first day. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II continues to hold the records for biggest weekend and day.
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November 18th, 2011
It's a great week for limited releases, but not because there are a huge number of releases, but because this week The Descendants comes out. This is Alexander Payne's first feature-length film in seven years. (He directed a segment of Paris, je t'aime since then.) His previous three feature-length films all earned at least one Oscar nomination and it would be a major shock if this film didn't also perform well during Awards Season. There are other films coming out this week, including a few earning good reviews, but their box office chances are dwarfed by this movie's potential.
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November 1st, 2011
October was a bit of a write-off. After the last weekend of September, the 2011 box office was about $280 million behind 2010's pace, but after the final weekend in October, that gap increased to $340 million. November will obviously bring in more box office dollars than October did. After all, it has one of the most important long holiday weekends of the year, Thanksgiving. However, the important question is not, "Can this November top last month?" It's, "Can this November top last year?" The biggest hit of last November was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part I, which earned just shy of $300 million. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 should match that figure. Tangled reached $200 million and maybe Happy Feet 2 will match that figure, but that's far less certain. There's a chance The Muppets will match Megamind while Tower Heist should top Due Date. If Jack and Jill and / or Hugo can become surprise $100 million hits and one of the limited releases can become a monster hit, like The King's Speech was able to, then suddenly the box office looks whole lot rosier going into the final month of the year. It's possible, but it's kind of like getting a backdoor full house in Texas Hold'em to beat a straight. I wouldn't bet on it. On the other hand, there doesn't appear to be many Skyline, The Next Three Days or Faster films that bombed at the box office. So while we might not be as strong at the top, there is better depth this year and hopefully that will be enough.
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