August 1st, 2020
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It has been a long time since we’ve seen a theatrical release from a major studio in North America, but that grim record may finally change in August. While there are only three major releases still on the calendar, and things remain in flux, it seems likely that at least one of them will open on their current release date.
That assumption is based partly on Warner Bros.’ decision to go ahead with Tenet’s release on September 3, and United Artists’ release of Bill and Ted Face the Music in theaters and VOD on September 1. With theaters steadily opening internationally, the pressure to release new films has become too great, even while the pandemic continues to rage in the United States. Even if expectations are very low domestically, it makes sense to start releasing films that have some international appeal, can lure moviegoers back to theaters in small numbers in the US, and then can make back more money from domestic video releases.
In the first part of this month’s preview, we look at the films that are lined up to open in August. Tomorrow, we’ll analyze what it’ll take to get box office earnings close to normal, and how long we can expect that to take, at least in countries that are bringing the pandemic under control.
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June 1st, 2014
It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
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