Weekend projections: Kung Fu Panda leads great weekend in theaters

March 10, 2024

Kung Fu Panda 4

This weekend’s new releases are more than living up to their “Po-tential,” led by a fantastic $58.3-million opening for Kung Fu Panda 4—for certain, the second-best debut for a film in the franchise, with an outside chance of topping the original Kung Fu Panda’s $60.2 million if it does really, really well on Sunday. While that will rightfully be garnering the most attention, Imaginary and Cabrini are also doing better than anticipated, and Dune: Part Two will have a great hold in its second weekend.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Kung Fu Panda 4 is a rare case of an animated series still bringing in a large audience on its fourth installment. The other examples I can find are Shrek, Toy Story, Despicable Me, and Ice Age. According to Universal’s demographic breakdown this morning, 29% of the audience this weekend are 17 or younger, and would have been babes in arms, or not yet born, when the first film came out. Another 27% are between 18 and 24, and would probably have been too young to see that film in theaters. So 56% of the audience was most like introduced to the franchise on home video.

That still leaves a healthy 44% over the age of 25, and this is a film that has hit all quadrants. The audience is 56% male, 30% Caucasian, 39% Hispanic, 11% Africa-American, 14% Asian, and 7% Native American and other, according to the studio. With an A- CinemaScore, it should have good legs domestically.

Internationally, Po and the gang will pick up around $22.2 million from 41, mostly relatively small, territories. The largest market it has debuted in so far is Spain, where it will pick up $2.997 million; other big markets are Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, all of which should clock in with around $2 million this weekend.

In second place in North America this weekend, Dune: Part Two is enjoying a very strong hold for a sequel, after opening with an excellent $82.5 million last weekend. Based on its performance over 10 days, our model now expects the film to gross in the neighborhood of $235 million, up about $20 million from the model’s prediction based solely on its opening weekend.

The good news isn’t stopping there this weekend. Imaginary and Cabrini are both topping expectations, and pulling in additional audiences who might not have been inspired to come to theaters this weekend by Kung Fu Panda or Dune. That will help the market increase 21% from last weekend, and hit $130 million for the first time since mid-October, when Taylor Swift was packing theaters. More significantly, this will be the first weekend in 2024 to beat the comparable weekend in 2023. The lack of strong new releases in January and February means we’re still in a hole, but at least we’re starting to dig our way out of it.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Toy Story, Shrek, Ice Age, Kung Fu Panda, Despicable Me