Weekend predictions: Lisa Frankenstein and Argylle battle one another, and the Super Bowl

February 9, 2024

Argylle

The race for bragging rights at the box office looks as though it will be a tight one this weekend. Lisa Frankenstein is the marginal favorite, according to our model, but Argylle could squeak in a second win if it has a better-than-expected hold or Lisa Frankenstein falters. Both films will likely struggle to do much business, and could be hurt quite a bit by Sunday’s Super Bowl.

Here’s what our model thinks of Lisa Frankenstein coming into the weekend…

Between them, Diablo Cody, Kathryn Newton, and Cole Sprouse have quite a history at the box office for films broadly comparable to Lisa Frankenstein. None have been massive hits, but there are plenty of films on the list above that did solid enough business on relatively low budgets.

This film is hoping for great business on Valentine’s Day, and may get some early date-night demand thanks to that. Universal probably didn’t think Anyone But You would still be riding high in the top 10 when they dated this film, and they also weren’t expecting unusually high female interest in the Super Bowl this year. Those could both weigh down on Lisa’s debut.

We haven’t received a report on preview numbers for the film, which might be a sign that it’s not doing huge business so far. To be fair, that’s not unusual for films like this, so doesn’t meaningfully affect our prediction. If we get a preview number later today, I’ll post an update.

Bleecker Street, meanwhile, has ancient-history horror movie Out of Darkness debuting in 897 theaters.

The model’s fundamentals assessment is that this film should do about $900,000 this weekend. Our audience tracking boosts that number a shade, to $1.2 million. Personally, I’d be surprised if it made that much, but it has an outside change of hitting the top 10.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

All-in-all, this is looking like a dismal weekend in theaters. Even a blowout Super Bowl on Sunday probably wouldn’t move the needle much, and there’s a decent chance we’ll see the weekend as a whole beat January 26 for the worst total box office of the year so far.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Argylle, Out of Darkness, Anyone But You, Lisa Frankenstein, Cole Sprouse, Diablo Cody, Kathryn Newton