Weekend projections: The Nun II has the edge on A Haunting in Venice for box office crown

September 17, 2023

A Haunting in Venice

As expected, we’re having a very close race in movie theaters this weekend, but it looks like The Nun II is slightly ahead of A Haunting in Venice as of Sunday morning. Warner Bros. is predicting $14.73 million for The Nun this weekend, while 20th Century Studios says Haunting in Venice will come in with $14.5 million. That’s in “too close to call” territory, although the major studios are generally very good at predicting how much their movies will earn by this point of the weekend. A spooky work of historical fiction will win the weekend for sure, the clues point towards Hercule Poirot not solving this particular case though.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



A Haunting in Venice is coming in a fair distance behind our Friday-morning prediction. As I noted at the time, that prediction was assuming that the popularity of the franchise would carry it past the $14-million mark that would be expected if it only had the legs of Death on the Nile through the weekend. Technically, it will have done that if it hits $14.5 million, but there’s no sugar-coating a disappointing result for the film. It’s doing better internationally with $22.7 million to date, but this looks like the last outing for Kenneth Branagh’s Hercule Poirot series.

We’ll be seeing more of The Nun though, as it passes $50 million domestically and $100 million internationally this weekend. Although it won’t beat its predecessor, it is currently showing better legs than the original The Nun, falling 55% compared to 66% in its second weekend.

The truth is that two movies battling for first place while landing short of $15 million each is bad news for business. All films reporting will struggle to earn $60 million this weekend, making this the worst weekend since February 10. The good news is that we’re still 20% up from this weekend last year when The Women King topped the weekend virtually unopposed with a $19-million weekend.

- Studio weekend projections
- Barbie’s day-by-day performance comparison with Avatar: The Way of Water and The Super Mario Bros. Movie
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Kenneth Branagh's Hercule Poirot