Weekend predictions: The Equalizer 3 has a shot at franchise-best opening

September 1, 2023

The Equalizer 3

The question this weekend is not which film will win, but whether The Equalizer 3 will have the best opening weekend for an Equalizer film. The bar is set at $36 million, which was how much The Equalizer 2 managed back in 2018. Our model thinks the franchise capper could top that figure, although it doesn’t look like it will do so by much. With the likes of Barbie, Gran Turismo and Blue Beetle fading, there won’t be much competition for top spot.

Here’s what our model thought of Equalizer 3 going into the weekend.

Two movies is a small sample size, but the previous two movies both did almost exactly the same amount on opening weekend, and star Denzel Washington has had more than a few films like this open in the high-20s to mid-30s: The Magnificent Seven debuted with $34.7 million, 2 Guns with $27.1 million, Safe House with $40.2 million, and The Book of Eli with $32.8 million, for example.

So something in the 30s seemed like a good prediction going into the weekend, and it still looks good now we have the preview numbers:

Equalizer 3’s $3.8 million in previews is a franchise record, beating Equalizer 2’s $3.1 million. Franchises tend to be more heavily weighted towards earning money from previews the longer they run though, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Equalizer 3 lose that $700,000 head start by the end of Sunday. The model thinks it will hold on for a new franchise record. I think it’s a 50-50 bet at this point, but something over $35 million seems very likely.

After a great performance in limited release, the comedy Bottoms expands wide this weekend. We have a model for that scenario, and it says the film will do well enough to get into the top 10, although it might just fall short:

The results for movies that take this route are fairly unpredictable, and anything between $1 million and $3 million seems possible.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

With Labor Day weekend traditionally not being a popular one for movies, we should see steady declines for most movies in the top 10 this weekend. If The Equalizer 3 does as well as expected, it should at least hold off a decline in the overall market. It also should pick up the second-best Labor Day weekend of all time, far behind Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, but safely ahead of Halloween, which debuted on Labor Day weekend (for some reason) with $26.4 million back in 2007.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Barbie, Blue Beetle, Bottoms, The Equalizer 3, Gran Turismo: Based on a True Story, The Equalizer, Denzel Washington