Weekend predictions: Little Mermaid shoots for $100 million on crowded weekend

May 26, 2023

The Little Mermaid will swim off with the box office crown this Memorial Day weekend, and will almost certainly hit $100 million over the full four-day weekend. The big question as of Friday is whether it will pass $100 million by close of business on Sunday. Our model thinks it’ll be close, but may be underestimating the aquatic adventure’s chances.

Since compiling all the numbers for this weekend has been a time-consuming task, and the hour is late, I’ll dive into the numbers very shortly. First, I wanted to apply a caveat to this weekend’s predictions: our model currently estimates the North American theatrical market to be running at about 60% of its pre-pandemic level. That’s down quite a bit from its estimate of 70%–90% that it has been running at for most of the year, and it’s largely because distributors have released a lot of movies in recent months, and quite a few of them have fallen short of expectations.

If you feel like Shazam! Fury of the Gods and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret are representative of the strength of the market, then the model agrees with you. I think they both underperformed expectations, and the model is being thrown off because quite a few films have performed like that or worse (hello, Operation Fortune) in the last couple of months.

I feel like the underlying market is probably more like at 80% strength, and the following predictions are on the conservative side. Having said that, our audience buzz tracking does adjust for that somewhat.

With all that said, here’s the model’s take on The Little Mermaid before we had preview numbers:

That 60% market strength adjustment really clobbers the prediction for Little Mermaid, but audience buzz is enough to counteract that.

Wednesdays’s and Thursday’s preview numbers paint a more accurate picture, in my opinion.

Note that the model looks only at Thursday’s previews when calculating the multiplier for the weekend, and then adds in Wednesday’s special screening earnings. In the end, the model thinks the film will earn just fractionally shy of $100 million this weekend. I think something around $105 million to $110 million is more likely.

To predict the weekend for The Machine, the model used R-rated comedies as a point of comparison:

It’s previews suggest something a bit better is in store:

I think $10 million would be a really good performance for The Machine this weekend, but it looks as though it could hit that number.

We don’t have preview numbers for Kandahar, but the model thinks it should pick up around $6 million based on its pedigree and the current audience interest:

About My Father could yet beat Kandahar to claim the bronze medal among new releases. We can have a little more confidence in the prediction for this movie, because it’s based both on the fundamentals and on some reported preview numbers.

Here’s the fundamental analysis:

The preview-based prediction is virtually identical:

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

It’s a crowded weekend at the box office. I should mention that a fifth new release, You Hurt My Feelings, could snag a place in the top 10 too, with the model predicting something around $1 million if it is playing in 1,000 theaters. Unfortunately, we don’t have an official theater count to use for a final prediction.

It’s going to Ariel’s show though, and I’ve a strong feeling Disney will have their third $100-million opening of the year.

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Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Little Mermaid, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Kandahar, The Machine, Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre, About My Father, You Hurt My Feelings