Weekend projections: Black Adam and Ticket to Paradise both out-perform expectations

October 23, 2022

Black Adam

Black Adam should hit $67 million over its opening weekend, and Ticket to Paradise will post around $16.3 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Both films are over-performing compared to our model’s prediction going into the weekend. Even though neither is breaking records, their relative strength is some much-needed good news for the industry, particularly considering the weakness of some other top 10 films.

Here’s how the domestic numbers looked as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Black Adam is arguably Dwayne Johnson’s best opening weekend as a leading actor. Most recent Fast and Furious movies have opened with more than $70 million, but those have a sizable ensemble cast. The Mummy Returns opened with $68.1 million back in 2001, but he had a more supporting role in that film. Whether or not one counts any of those films as counting towards this particular record, this is a good result for Dwayne Johnson, and the best opening for a film in the DC Extended Universe since Aquaman’s $67.8-million opening back in 2019. That was only a little than 1% more than Black Adam projected figure, so the new film could still win that particular battle.

With another $73 million outside North America, Black Adam is headed towards a $140-million global opening, with number one performances in virtually all markets, according to Warner Bros.. It’s also outperforming Shazam! in most international markets (by an average of 27% in like-for-like markets and using today’s exchange rates, per the studio). It’s also getting a 90% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, which is an excellent number and perhaps accounts for why the film has held on well through the weekend—our model expected a weekend around $61 million based on its preview numbers, and it’s doing about 10% better than that.

Ticket to Paradise isn’t doing business on the same scale as Black Adam, but it is hitting the ball out the park by the standards of romantic comedies recently. Since the beginning of 2020, the highest opening for a romantic comedy was $7.9 million, which was earned by Marry Me back in February (just days before Valentine’s Day). Ticket to Paradise will more than double that figure, and will have the best opening for the genre since Yesterday debuted with $17 million back in June, 2019. That film went on to make $73.3 million domestically and another $81 million internationally. Ticket to Paradise already has $82.4 million outside North America, and looks a good bet for $70 million in its home market, so should end up the highest-grossing US-produced romantic comedy worldwide since Crazy Rich Asians.

It might not be enough to entirely revive the genre, but it does prove the star power of George Clooney and Julia Roberts, and go a long way to justifying their paychecks, which took the budget for the film to $60 million. Its performance so far makes it likely the film will end up making a profit.

Behind the top two films, things are a bit of a horror show, figuratively and literally, this weekend. Halloween Ends is projected to fall 80% in its second weekend, and Smile is also falling by more than expected. A couple of bright spots are Terrifier 2, which will gain another 84% this weekend to nearly $1.9 million and seems poised to have a great run through Halloween. Neon’s black comedy Triangle of Sadness also makes a surprise appearance in the top 10, with $600,000 projected in its third weekend.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time biggest weekends
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Fast and the Furious, DC Extended Universe, Julia Roberts, George Clooney, Dwayne Johnson