Weekend predictions: Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile favorite going into weekend
October 7, 2022
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a straight up live action (with a touch of CGI) family film in theaters. Arguably the last one was Clifford the Big Red Dog, which opened with $16.6 million in November last year. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile is hoping for a debut somewhere in that ballpark this weekend, but, while it’s a strong favorite to come top of chart, our model thinks it might struggle to get there. Amsterdam provides it with some competition, but Smile is looking like the only other film that still has a shout at beating Lyle and topping the chart.
Here’s what the model thought of Lyle’s prospects going into the weekend.
The comparison films for Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile are non-sequel kids fiction films, of which 10 have had a wide release since late 2020. The model throws in three more from pre-pandemic times all of which confirm that these films have varying fortunes. Association with existing IP definitely helps (see Sonic the Hedgehog and Tom and Jerry), and Lyle is based on a beloved children’s book. But that book is over 50 years old, which reduces the effect somewhat.
Its release in 4,350 theaters definitely boosts its chances of earning a decent amount this weekend, but the recent softness of the market in general, and the lack of obvious strong audience interest in this particular film pulls down the fundamentals prediction quite a bit.
The preview numbers from last night pull things down further…
There’s a chance that this film could really fall flat and earn less than $10 million this weekend. I think the fact that this is a holiday weekend (albeit one of the lesser-observed ones) will give it a bit of a boost, but the combined prediction of around $13.5 million feels about right to me.
Amsterdam has an extraordinary cast, and a director, David O. Russell, with an award-winning biography. His films don’t tend to open to huge numbers though. Crime capers likewise tend to open relatively low (although they have long shelf lives in the home market). Tracking has been OK on this, most likely thanks to the stellar cast, but something around $10 million looked likely.
Its preview number is pretty disappointing though…
Logan Lucky is the obvious comparison here. It earned $525,000 in previews, had a stellar cast and big-name director, and made a modest $7.6 million on its opening weekend. Once that kind of comparison is added to the mix, the model thinks a weekend around $8.4 million is about right for Amsterdam.
Here’s what our model thinks the top 10 as a whole will look like…
If Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile fails to gather steam as the weekend progresses, and Smile has a better-than-average hold, the horror movie could end up with a second weekend win. It’s definitely the underdog right now, but I wouldn’t count it out. Amsterdam looks a fairly safe bet for third place.
Overall, unless all of those three films do significantly better than expected, we’ll most likely have a down weekend at the box office, and almost certainly have only eight films earning more than $1 million. It’s safe to say that Halloween Ends can play in pretty much any theater it wants to next weekend.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Amsterdam, Halloween Ends, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile, Smile, David O. Russell