Weekend predictions: will Don't Worry, Darling’s strong previews translate into a great opening weekend?

September 23, 2022

Don’t Worry Darling

After a months-long (social) media frenzy, Don’t Worry, Darling finally hits theaters this weekend, and Warner Bros. and theater owners had enough confidence in the film to book it in 4,113 movie houses, the widest opening since Bullet Train at the beginning of August. That film earned $4.6 million in previews on its way to a $30-million opening weekend. Now, Don’t Worry, Darling is off to a promising start itself, with $3.1 million in previews, which includes special event IMAX screenings on Monday. Will that translate into a big opening weekend? Here’s what our model thinks…

The model didn’t go into the weekend with huge expectations, given that it’s an R-rated thriller.

The two closest comps, in my opinion, are probably Red Sparrow and Baby Driver, which opened with $16.9 million and $20.6 million respectively. Overall, the model thinks an opening in the high teens would be expected.

The high theater count boosts that number substantially, to around $23.3 million, but it’s then brought down because our pandemic adjustment now stands at 77%. If you’re a regular reader, you may be surprised at that figure, given that the pandemic adjustment stood at 94% just last week. A run of relatively weak results at the end of the Summer have taken their toll, however, and the model is now assuming that it’ll take a bit of work to lure audiences back into theaters after a couple of months without much to get excited about.

The two adjustments combined essentially get us back to where we started, with the “fundamentals” saying Don’t Worry should open around $18 million.

The previews present a slightly rosier picture…

Thrillers that earn around this much from previews on average make about ten times that amount over the course of their opening weekend. Note, however, that there’s quite a bit of variation, and Bullet Train only delivered a 6.5 multiplier. The special screenings on Monday (which Warner Bros. hasn’t split out from Thursday previews) should reduce the multiplier by a bit, and I’d be surprised if Don’t Worry posted $30 million this weekend. The model’s final prediction, $28.2 million, also sounds high to me, but $25 million looks on the cards. The worst-case scenario is a multiplier of 6.5, like Bullet Train, and a $20-million weekend. That’s still a respectable number.

The return of Avatar to movie theaters this weekend gives me a chance to dust off my re-releases model, which I last used when Spider-Man: No Way Home came out three weeks ago.

To be honest, the prediction for Avatar is highly uncertain. Re-releases are generally unpredictable, and it’s a long time since Avatar was breaking records. The model thinks $9.9 million is about right, with that number heavily influenced by the fact that the film had such a huge “opening weekend-to-final gross” multiplier. That suggests many repeat viewings when it first came out, which usually means people will be tempted to come out one more time now. We’ll see.

Here’s what our model thinks the top 10 as a whole will look like…

Overall, we should see a big increase in total box office from last weekend, when The Woman King was essentially the only game in town. I think $60 million is an optimistic target, but we should top $50 million this weekend at least.

The numbers might be helped by Moonage Daydream and On the Come Up, the first of which expands “wide” this weekend, and the second of which opens in 603 theaters. Moonage Daydream could hit the top 10, but we don’t have an official theater count for it, so it’s hard to say whether it’ll build on its $1-million opening in IMAX theaters. On the Come Up is also debuting on Paramount+ this weekend. While that won’t take a huge bite out of its box office (based on how similar films have been affected by these simultaneous releases on Paramount+), it’s not expected to make the top 10 in any case.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avatar, Don’t Worry, Darling, On the Come Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Bullet Train, The Woman King, Moonage Daydream