Weekend predictions: $50 million the goal for Maverick

June 3, 2022

With no new films playing in over 1,000 theaters this weekend, Top Gun: Maverick doesn’t face much competition in its second weekend. It could still fall dramatically though, given it posted big numbers from previews (which are included in its opening-weekend $126 million total), and it was a perfect fit for Memorial Day weekend. Some repeat business from ultra fans could stem the losses, but our model thinks anything over $50 million would be a good total this time around.

The new release to look out for is David Cronenberg’s Crimes of the Future, which will be the director’s first wide release since Dead Ringers back in 1988. That film opened with just over $3 million from 1,042. Crimes of the Future is debuting in around 900, and our model thinks it’ll come in with something around the same amount.

Honestly, this is a difficult film to predict. Cronenberg is pretty much the definition of a legendary director, but he certainly isn’t to everyone’s taste, and all his recent films have had platform releases. Neon have a growing track record of with releases like this though, and I think Crimes might beat the model. Spencer’s debut in 996 theaters garnered $2.1 million at the box office, and I think Crimes of the Future could do something similar at the high end.

For Top Gun, our model thinks its opening weekend performance indicates a high level of “fanboy” interest, and therefore a steep drop in its second weekend looks likely. Doctor Strange will probably return to second place, unless Bob’s Burgers has a surprisingly strong hold.

One other movie to look out for is Watcher from IFC Films. It is set to open in 764 locations, and could find a spot in the lower reaches of the top 10. Its audience does overlap with that for Crimes of the Future though, and our model thinks it’ll end up just short of the top 10 list.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Top Gun: Maverick, The Bob’s Burgers Movie, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Spencer, Watcher, Crimes of the Future, David Cronenberg