Weekend predictions: Downton headed for the mid to high teens
May 20, 2022
The long wait is finally over for followers of the Grantham family, as Downton Abbey: A New Era arrives in movie theaters in North America this weekend. The film was originally scheduled for global release in December of last year before moving to its current berth, and that should have helped its box office prospects, even if it was never expected to match the $31-million debut of the first movie in the franchise. Based on the current market conditions, and its performance from Thursday-evening previews, a weekend in the mid to high teens looks likely.
Here are our model’s two predictions for Downton, based on its fundamentals, and then on its preview performance.
The preview numbers suggest that the film is coming in below its potential. In fact, they are (rather neatly) exactly half the amount earned by the first film on its first night. It’s not unusual for a sequel to be more heavily weighted towards preview earnings, which suggests the film could come in under $15 million, but our combined model predicts an opening of $17.6 million, with the fundamentals prediction providing cause for optimism.
A New Era is an important test of the return of older audiences to movie theaters. With COVID cases on the rise again in the US, the film is facing some headwinds, and that may account for what’s looking like a slightly soft opening. If it does reach $17.6 million or more by Sunday evening, that will count as a win.
As it happens, the preview number for Men is almost exactly in line with our model’s prediction for opening weekend, with the film perhaps doing slightly better than expected so far. Anything over $5 million is a very respectable figure for a non-franchise horror film right now. Our prediction might change a little though once we have an official theater count for the film (A24 didn’t include one with their previews announcement).
The two new releases won’t be enough to stop a general decline in market size as Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness goes into its third weekend. There’s something for everyone in theaters right now, which is good news for long-term market health, but we’re going into the Summer season with theatrical business looking steady, rather than expanding.
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This weekend’s other new wide release hails from director Alex Garland, who brought us Ex Machina and Annihilation. His latest, Men, is a horror movie with a twist. We received preview numbers for it while I was compiling this article, so here’s the latest and greatest prediction…
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Downton Abbey: A New Era, Men, Alex Garland