Weekend predictions: Doctor Strange looking at $200-million debut

May 6, 2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness will herald an important return to form for the Marvel Cinematic Universe this weekend, with its $36 million from previews on Thursday (the 8th-best preview number ever) pointing towards a weekend somewhere around $200 million. Whether it tops that figure will depend on its legs through the weekend. Historically MCU movies have had good legs, with opening weekends up to eight times their earnings from previews (which would translate into an eye-watering $288 million weekend—probably an unrealistic goal). The number to look out for is a multiplier of 5.6, which would take Multiverse of Madness past Black Panther’s $202 million and mark the best MCU outing for a non-Avengers, non-Spider-Man film.

As usual, when we have preview numbers for a film, the model produces two predictions, and our final number is a weighted average of the two.

Personally, I think the previews prediction has the edge this weekend, and the fundamentals prediction is a little too weighed down by the relatively modest performance of Eternals, Shang-Chi and Black Widow. The final prediction, based on the weightings in our model is $196 million, which would still represent something of a triumph for Disney given the relative sluggishness of their Marvel films last year. Multiverse has probably benefited from being marketed unequivocally as a theatrical release, and I personally think $220 million is in reach based on its previews. I’d be surprised if it came in under $200 million at this point.

Needless to say, Doctor Strange dominates the box office this weekend, and the model is predicting sharp declines for everything else, partly because of their loss of theaters. There’s a possibility that audiences faced with sold out Doctor Strange shows will end up going to one of the other films on offer, so I expect we might see some outperformers among the also-rans.

This weekend definitely belongs to Marvel though.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Marvel Cinematic Universe