Weekend predictions: Secrets of Dumbledore should land in the high 40s

April 15, 2022

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore posted $6 million in preview earnings last night, a figure that’s remarkably close to the $6.25 million Sonic the Hedgehog 2 made from previews last week. The 11th outing from the Harry Potter franchise is unlikely to come close to Sonic’s $72-million opening though, with our model expecting something in the high $40-millions.

As usual, when we have preview numbers for a film, the model produces two predictions, and our final number is a weighted average of the two.

While there will be a lot of press about the waning popularity of the Fantastic Beasts movies, the current numbers for the new film are right in line with what our model expects, given its current estimate that 69% of the traditional moviegoing population has now returned to theaters. In fact, anything over about $45 million would be a step forwards from The Crimes of Grindewald under current market conditions.

That is of course a long way from the heyday of the Potter franchise, and will make it a challenge for Warner Bros. to finance further outings for Newt Scamander and crew. But there will undoubtedly be more from the wizard world on HBO Max, if not, perhaps, on the big screen for a while.

Father Stu is a bit of an oddball release: an R-rated, faith-based drama that was released on the Wednesday before Easter weekend. That makes it hard to model, other than looking at other Wednesday releases. Those point towards a weekend somewhere between $5 million and $10 million, with the consensus landing at $6.6 million. That’s a slight disappointment for Mark Wahlberg, who had a $14.5-million opening for Instant Family back in 2018, and many films in his resumé that debuted over $10 million.

Fantastic Beasts will almost certainly win the weekend, but I expect Sonic the Hedgehog 2 to beat our model’s forecast, partly because the model assumes a rapid decline for a movie that has a great opening weekend, but also because Easter should bring out family audiences. I’d personally be amazed if it doesn’t hit $30 million, and something around $35 million seems like a good bet to me.

Everything Everywhere All At Once also seems likely to beat its prediction, thanks to its terrific reviews and strong word of mouth. Coupled with strong numbers from Sonic, that could help the market as a whole just top last weekend, although it’s likely to be a close race.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Father Stu, Harry Potter, Mark Wahlberg